Nifty Daily Swing trades for 1st April 2009

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in sell mode and the trend will reverse on move above the 3067 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way to 2971/2922 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2728. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – Sell ( sell generated at 3108)
Reversal Value - 3067.
Bankex

Current Price - 4093(future)
Current Trend – Sell (reversed to sell at 4165)
Reversal Value - 4194

It may be noted that nifty has again moved above 100 Day EMA today and is just placed at 100 Day EMA. If Fibonacci is applied nifty has gone below the 23% level and not headed towards 38.2% which appears to be at 2910 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards 2839 and 2768(all the levels are that of future).

M.Sri Mahidar

Tuesday 31st March 2009, Time 8.30 P.M IST

Nifty Daily Swing Trade as on 30th March 2009

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in sell mode( reversed yesterday) and the trend will reverse on move above the 3140 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way to 2915 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2728. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.

Current trend – Sell ( sell generated at 3108)
Reversal Value - 3140.

BankexCurrent Price - 4025(future)
Current Trend – Sell ( reversed to sell at 4165)
Reversal Value - 4428

It may be noted that nifty has again moved below the 100 Day EMA. The EMA did not offer any resistance indicating that bears have gained upper hand firmly and we have chances of expecting further down sides and we have also chances of going below the 2900 level. If Fibonacci is applied nifty has gone below the 23% level and not headed towards 38.2% which appears to be at 2910 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards 2839 and 2768(all the levels are that of future).

M.Sri Mahidar
31st March 2009 Time 7.30 A.M IST

Nifty Weekly Update for week Ended 28th March 2009

Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 28th March 2009.
Nifty has surprised every body during the week and went on to make a 11% gain during the week to close at 3108 after making a high of 3123. One noticing feature of the rise is that the rise is on very high volumes signifying that the rise may be genuine. I have mentioned during the last week that if nifty moves past 2969 during the week then it indicates that the recovery was faster that that of the fall. The fall from 2969 to 2525 took 15 days and the rise above 2969 from 2525 took only 10 days signifying that bulls are gaining upper hand. The faster retracement is giving an indication that some important Elliotte wave might have completed at 2525.Another noticing feature is that nifty have moved comfortably above 3000 and now it has placed at 3108 just below the January 09 high of 3149. Another feature is that may be noted is that nifty has made a highest closing after 17th of October 2008, so nifty has made a highest closing after nearly 5 months( remember 5 is a Fibonacci). Another noticing feature is that nifty has comfortably moved above 50 day and 100 day EMA and is now also placed above the 100 day EMA which is at 3000. The ease at which it has broken the 100 Day EMA is giving an indication that we might be in for a surprise for bulls. 100 Day EMA has been a formidable resistance for the last 15 months and this time it has been violated at just one go. Considering this, we can comfortably say that 100 day EMA now becomes a good support level any violation of the same i.e3000 currently will not be a good sign for bulls. In the month of October also it has been violated briefly and then when it moved below the 100 day EMA all the hell broke loose and nifty fell by nearly 2000 points. This time the situation is different but if 100 day EMA is violated on down side nothing can be ruled out. It appears that nifty is heading towards the 200 day EMA which is placed at 3400 it appears that nifty is going to find a formidable resistance at 200 day EMA.

It can be seen from the above is that nifty is moving in a channel and now is placed at top end of the channel and appears that it has possible chances of correcting towards the support line which is placed at 3000.
It can be seen from the above chart that nifty has been finding it difficult to move above the sloping trend line drawn from to of 6357 and this time also it is just nearing the same which is placed at 3200-3225 level any failure of the same has all chances of taking nifty towards the support line which is placed at around 2500-2550. So in the coming month 3140 and 3200 appears to be formidable resistances for nifty.
Also in shorter term nifty appears to be in extremely over bought zone and it appears that it will be difficult for nifty to go past 3200 in this rise, it might correct from these levels towards 2900 or so and then it might make an attempt at 3200 level.

Elliotte wave analysis:
Last week I have mentioned that any move of nifty above 3000 will negate the implication of a triangle. As nifty has successfully conquered 3000 the implications of triangle pattern are ruled out and the pattern is not clear at this point of time. Either it is a fifth wave failure which I have indicated as the third wave appears to be elongated or the pattern is yet to complete as it might be forming double flat we have to wait and see I will be furnishing the same once I get the clear indication by the movement of nifty.

Directional Momentum index
Last week I have indicated that +D has moved above the –D1 line indicating that bulls are taking center stage, and the same seems to have happened DMI has moved from 19.67 to around 28 levels indicating that bulls have gained firm upper hand.

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3008 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 3008 will pave way for 2845 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2697. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 3008.

Bankex
Current Price - 4402(future)
Current Trend - Buy
Reversal Value – 4165 any breach of the same has chances of taking nifty towards 3700 levels.
BEML – Rs.400

It appears that BEML is about to give a buy signal on movement above 400 once it moves above 400 it will make a 19 week high. The volumes are suggesting that some amount of buying is going into the stock and we might see a good up side movement in the stock once it is past 400 level. Technically there are no resistance levels for the stock except at Rs.800. So once it Rs.400 is taken out we have chances of the stock advancing towards 800 in quick time. But in that case 400 should be straight stop loss.

Resistances: 3141/3200/3250
Supports: 3000/2850/2757/2525

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 29th-Mar-09, Time 7.00 PM IST

Nifty Swing Trading strategy for 27th March 2009

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 2923 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 2923 will pave way for 2757 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2525. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 2923.

Bankex
Current Price - 4285(future)
Current Trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 3990

Important thing to be noted is that nifty has broken above the sloping trend line from the top of january 2008 and has successfully moved above the 100 Day EMA both of which it has failed to break atleast two to three times during the last 15 months of so. As it has been broken and also with volumes indicates that the down trend has been broken and we might see a good healthy up move in nifty/Indices unless nifty moves below the trend line and also 100 Day EMA both of which are placed at 3000 every dips should be taken as an opportunity to go long.Another point to be noted is that nifty has made a -ve divergence in the hourly chart( indicated in the chart below) and also in extremely over bought in intraday charts all these are indicating towards possible short term correction in indices which has chances of taking nifty below the 3000 level so be prepared accordingly

Swing Trade as on 25 March 2008

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 2915 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 2915 will pave way for 2757 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2525. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 2915.
Bankex
Current Price - 4123(future)
Current Trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 3978
Important things which has happened technically during last three days

nifty has successfully moved above the 20 day and 50 Day EMA and is now just placed at the door steps of 100 day EMA. During the last one year from January 2008 fall nifty has reversed in a big way on touching the 100 Day EMA or on moving just above the 100 Day EMA and reversed instentaniously. So we have to be watch full in trading for the next two days. if 100 Day EMA is taken our successfully then nifty might make an attempt at the november high of 3240.

Another point to be noted is that nifty has moved above the year to date pivot which is currently at 2890. As year to date pivot is taken out on positive side R1 is place at 3241( which happens ot be November high also). Any movement below this will signal the end of the current up trend.

Another point to be noted is that the rise on last two days is on high volumes, which is giving an indication that good amount of buying might be taking place/ any selling taking place? we have to wait and see what is instore.

Nifty Swing Trade 24th Sep 2009

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 2845 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 2845 will pave way for 2757 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2525. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 2845.

BankexCurrent Price - 4002(future)
Current Trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 3721

Swing Trade after close of 23rd March

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 2773 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 2773 will pave way for 2697 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2525. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 2773.
Bankex
Current Price - 3940
Current Trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 3665

Nifty Weekly update for week ended 21st March 2009

Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 21st March 2009.
Nifty surprised every body and has moved up nearly 100 points from the last weeks close. On last two days of the week the market has formed two bearish patterns as per the candle and stick patterns the “doji” which clearly indicates that there is good amount of indecisiveness in the market. Unless the high of “doji” 2816 is taken out the reversal of the same still holds good. It is better for us to wait up to the high of 2836 is broke before initiating any longs. One of the positive things which has to be noted is that last week the nifty has successfully broken above the 10 day EMI next moved above 20 day EMI and now placed exactly 50 day EMA. During the last five months nifty has reversed when ever it touched or just moved above the 50 Day EMA. The correction has generally around 300 points. So considering the same it appears that we might be at a crucial level of directional movement on either direction with –ve bias. If 50 day EMA is successfully broken then nifty will make an attempt at 100 Day EMA which is placed around 3000. Currently any move of nifty below the 20 day EMA at 2750 will be good news to the bears years and nifty might move towards 2700 in that case. So be cautious and trade wisely.
Another point to be noted is that nifty is still making a lower high which is still indicating that we are still in the bear market. One positive feature is that we are making higher bottoms giving an indications that bears are not as strong as they appears to be. 2524 is violated then we have all fair chances of making a lower low. Another point which would indicate the trend reversal is that the rise should be faster than the fall and to day it has not been violated i.e the recovery was slower/took more time than the fall. In the current case the last fall from 2969 to 2539 took 15 trading days and the current rise from the low has completed 8 trading days so nifty has to move above 2969 in next 4-5 trading days to indicate the trend reversal. If this does not happen then we have all the fair chances of nifty touching at least 2500 in the coming month.

Elliotte wave Analysis:
With regard to elliotte wave analysis there appears to be not much chance in the analysis. During the my previous weeks update I have indicated that we have broken a triangle and also that after breaking the triangle the indices generally move down then move up to the base of the triangle and then make a free fall or rise in the direction of the break. In the current case the breakout out of the triangle in on the down side and nifty has broke below the triangle trend line and moved down towards 2500 and is not exactly placed at the base trend line (b-d line) is indicated in the below chart.
The minimum target from the break out of a triangle in the current case come to 2494 which has still not been violated. This gives an indication that we still have one more down side leg left in the current case. So be prepared for the same. Any move above/close above the 3000 level will negate the implications of the triangle.
Directional Momentum index
In the current week +D has moved above the –D1 line indicating that bulls are taking center stage but DMI is moving down and is currently place at 19.69 indicating the bulls are loosing ground. In the current case even the +D1 line is also moving down indicating the bulls are becoming weak so current week appears to be a crucial week which has all chances of given a clear direction to the market.
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 2757 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 2757 will pave way for 2697 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2525. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.

Resistances: 2800/2830/2850/2900/2969/3000
Supports: 2757/2710/2600/2555/2503/2336/2223
M.Sri Mahidar

Sunday 22-Mar-09, Time 8.00 PM IST

nifty updat for week ended 14th March 2009

Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 13th March 2009.
I am updating this thread after nearly two weeks. One important thing that has happened during the last two weeks is it appears that nifty has broken out of the triangle and moving further down wards. One point to be noted is that nifty has just moved below the triangle moved down and now currently closed exactly at the break-out trend line. Generally when triangle break happens prices move in the direction of break-out and then move towards the trend line just touch the trend line and then fall viciously in the direction of the break out. In the present case break out is down ward and now it is placed exactly at the trend line if nifty fall from the current levels and with volumes then we have all chances of nifty moving below the 2500. Another thing to be noted is that nifty is placed exactly at 20 day EMA which is at 2710 so in the coming week especially on Monday and Tuesday this level (2710) becomes crucial as nifty any move below this will give upper hand for bears and any move above it will strengthen the hands of bears. So keep a very very close watch at 2710 for nifty spot to make any trading call.
Elliott Wave Analysis:

As has been indicated it appears from the chart that triangle might have completed and down ward break out has happened and now it is exactly at the trend line generally market reverses at the trend line and also on just moving above it. So in the current week we might see the nifty moving down. Any movement of nifty above 2800 will have to favor bulls. Now it appears that you might have doubt as to what is the minimum level of the nifty if the triangle break out has happened, min retracement should be at-least the 75% longest length of the triangle, the longest length of the triangle is the wave –a which is of length of 633 points so the minimum fall after the break out of the triangle should be lf length 474 points from the end of wave-e, the minimum target should be 2494 which has still not been violated. This is giving an indication that we have all fair chances of nifty moving towards those levels so better watch out. If nifty moves below 2494 then we have chances of nifty going to 2336. Considering this it appears that the coming week is going to be a very crucial week which might give trend of the market. so better watch out.
Directional Momentum Index (DMI)
DMI has moved above 20 after nearly five months and is now placed at 25. From January 2008 onwards DMI has moved above 20 only three times, first time in January 2008 where in nifty fell by nearly 1800 points, next time it happened in June 2008 where in nifty fell by 1000 points, and third time in October 2008 where in nifty fell by nearly 2000 points. After October nifty has again gone above 20 in March 2009 So you can imagine the amount of destruction which might happen. One thing which has happened by Fridays movement is that +D is moving up and –D1 line is moving down indicating that the down ward movement has slowed down/ halted so DMI movement for next two days is going to crucial as it will clearly give an indication as to whether the direction is having strength or not. So keep a close watch on DMI especially on Monday and Tuesday.

Resistances: 2750/2800/2830/2900
Supports: 2710/2600/2555/2503/2336/2223

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 15-Mar-09, Time 9.00 PM IST