Rupee chart(weekly Chart). i have indicated in my earlier updates on rupee that we have all the chances of seeing a new high in rupee and it seems that we have now started the up move and it clearly seems that in coming weeks we have all chances of seeing a new high. Will it happen before budget it seems to be so. The elliott wave analysis of rupee is indicated in the above chart. i would explain it in details in a day or two. But as of now it appear that we are in the fifth wave of the third of the third and there is long way to go before the third wave is completed. This week we have closed at 52 week high and today also we have again closed at a new 52 week high which generally is a bullish sign for USD.  The USD index is also making multi year high, i have indicated it in September that we have all chances of seeing 90 first then 96 and then 102 we have now achieved the first target and it would be a matter of time before a 96 is achieved.USD index is on verge of making a 12 year high not a mean feat. All this is indicating that the world currencies are depreciating against USD and rupee would also follow the suit and it appears the up move is USD is going to gain momentum which would surprise every body by the pace of the move against the rupee. So we can expect a new high in rupee in coming weeks or months.

May all be Peaceful and Happy

Mahiidar M

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

USDINR has move above the crucial resistance level this week it closed above 62 after nearly 21 months( a Fibonacci) which is a very good technical indication. I have been waiting to close above 62 post the update. USDINR has been consolidating between 60.50 to 62 for last 5 months in the week ended 22 november it moved above it but closed below 62 but this week it moved above it and weekly close was also above it, which is a bullish signal for USD. The break out is indication that we might see it inching upwards in the coming months. It appears that it has all chances of making a new high. I can move above 70 in coming weeks so, we have to prepare for it.

Now we look into the Elliott wave- analysis of USDINR.

 The long term chart of the USDINR is furnished above; the chart is for more 40 years. It can be seen in the above chart that USDINR is moving in a channel and till now its intact in the coming weeks we might see it again moving above it before a correction can set in, this is also an indication that we have all chances of seeing a new high in USDINR. Given below is the Elliott wave break up of the wave indicated in blue circle above which started from the low of 39 in 2008.

  

 The above chart is the USDINR chart from the low of 2008 onwards, the wave-1 wave from the low of 39 to the high of 52 which lasted for 69 weeks. There after stated a consolidation, the wave-II which was a double combination a zig-zag and a triangle, the wave-II ended at 43.84 a fall of Rs.8.29 a fall of nearly 61.80%( corrected 63%) it lasted nearly 125 weeks there after stated the wave-3( larger wave) from around 43.84 we are still in forming the wave-3 only. The wave-1 of wave-3 was from 43.84 to 54.32 a rise of Rs.10.48 in 20 weeks there after the wave-2 of wave-3 stared and fell up-to 48.60 in 7 weeks. There we started to form wave-3 which started to break into its components as of now wave-1,2 of wave-3 of larger wave-III have completed and it seems we are in the wave-3 of 3 of larger wave-III, the wave-3 is further breaking into its components and we seems to have completed the wave-4, of 3 of 3 of larger wave-III. Now it seems that we might have stared the wave-5 and it seems that its again breaking into its components and we have to see whether it would move above the all time high. As the larger wave-III has not still completed and the completion seems to be far away as there are so many waves still have to be formed and we can expect the USDINR to move substantially from current levels. will we see a new high before budget we have to wait and see.

May all be Happy and Peacefull

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

USDINR-61.08

USDINR has moved above 200 day EMA, after nearly five months. The movement above 200 day EMA is bullish for USD and we can expect the INR to depreciate in the coming weeks.Rupee has been finding resistance at the sloping trend line indicated by three blue arrows in the above chart three time in last six months. Now also it has retraced from that but the retracement is not so harsh indicating that we might start the up move once this down trend or slight correction is over. Rupee has been finding resistance at the sloping trend line blue line for last six months three times in last six months(indicated by blue arrows). Once this trend line is taken out we can expect a healthy movement in USD towards an all time high. will it go there it appears to be so till it maintains above 200 day EMA. So we have to wait patiently for the price to move above the trend line.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Rupee is one of the interesting charts which has to be looked into and is pointing towards a bearish scenario for INR. The USDINR seems to have formed a wolf wave pattern and till now it has not confirmed and it would be confirmed on close above 60.75 the lower blue line once this is done the pattern would be confirmed and we can see a sudden spurt in the USD towards 66 and every body would be caught on wrong foot. i am working on the elliott wave structure and would furnish the same once i complete the same this weekend. So wait for the chart to confirm and then act in any case the stop loss is around 59.50 levels. so we have 1 rupee risk and return of 6 rupees in this trade if taken. but stop loss is a must what ever may be the case

 

Rupee is behaving as has been indicated nearly two years back, at that time the frist target was give as 57.12 and then 60 and 64 now we have already acheived the same in 2011 and now we are at nearly 60 and no doubt it would touch around 65. at that time nobody might have beleived but now we are getting calls of 62 atleast and we have alls chances of surprassing the same. its only a matter of time as to when we  would acheive the same. So after some brief correction we migh again move up to acheive the ultimate target of above Rs.65.

Rupee

the above three charts are done when the rupee was at around 48 and the latest update is given below.

Technical analysis of USD/INR:
It appears from the chart below the INR has bottomed out at around 44.25 levels and we might see it moving up from the current levels. It appears from the chart that we might have completed a 5 wave elliotte wave pattern at 44.25 and we might see it moving towards at-least 47-48 levels. The shape of the structure is also clearly fitting into the place which is further confirming the completion of the structure. It the structure is complete we should swiftly move above the high of wave-4 which happens to be around 46.80. first indication would come on movement above 45.50 and confirmed by movement above 46.80. so be prepared for weakening of the INR.

The wave structure is given below:

There is another interesting development taking place in USD/INR which is surely giving a target around 48 for INR. It is know as Wolfe wave which has generally success rate of around 85%. The Wolfe wave pattern is given below. it is perfectly fitting into all the pre-requisites of Wolfe wave. Here also the target is coming to around 48-48.50 so in all probability we might see doller strengthening.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is friend