Nifty seems to have broken the trend line from last four months(blue line) but it has not support at the three months trend line(pink line) which happens to be at 6100. if nifty moves past the 6100 then we can expect a bigger correction and in this case the minimum correction should be around 5777 and it can extend up to 5624. but if it moves below  5950 then the larger picture would unfold which is indicated in the chart below which i have shown in last weeks update.

if nifty break below the 5950 then it would break the 5 year trend line indicated in chart above(red line) in such case the correction can be more severe that anticipated. But now we would stick to current one only and see if it moved past the targets give above. if the 5 year trend line is taken out then we would work out accordingly and the new targets would be arrived at.

M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Freind.

It can be seen in the chart that nifty is moving in a range from December 2011 onwards. it is not 104 weeks till now and we are still in the box only. between the two trend lines. so now we should see either nifty making a new high and moved down to the lower trend line or we can see it moving down now only. if Nifty breaks 6120 level then we can see it drifting towards lower trend line which at present is around 5500 level it would be a huge fall in the current scenario. So as of now in medium term we might see 5500 as a formidable support. So wait and watch for the market to give the clue.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend.

It can be seen from the above chart that nifty after breaking the trend line from june 09 onwards in january 2010 it has once again tested the trend line indicated by top arrow and then corrected voilently. Currently also in this fall nifty has broken the trend line drawn from june 09 onwards and not moving up, it appears that it might again go and test the trend line or it would just move above it and then collapse. This would form a perfect technical pattern. if nifty moves above the trend line and then again move below it would form a perfect opportunity to short with stop loss at the recent high, in which case it would provide a minimum loss and maximum profit opportunity. so keep close watch on nifty once it nears the trend line.

M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.

Nifty has risen spectacularly, taking every body by surprise. The rise today is maily attributable to bail out of Greece. One point to be noted is that the spectacular rise of nifty was on far less volumes(indicated by blue arrow) than that associated wiht the entire fall. Thus giving an indication that the up move lacs strength. If the up move was associated with volumes the we can bet on further sharp up move. But if the market is raising its raising no questions asked as market is always right. Nifty has to move above the sloping trend line drawn from the top then only we can assume that the up move has strength. if not then the dotted line might be the path of nifty.

it can be seen from the above chart that nifty has corrected after forming a lower low in shorter term and the confirmation has come by making a lower low i.e. closing below 5160. Technically it appears that we migh see further down sides. first support is at 5122 which happens to be 38.10% retracement, if it is taken out then we have next support at 5031 and 4951. In the current pattern it has been seen that when ever retracement has happened they were in the region of 61.8% to around 80%. so the targets comes to 4951 to 4821 so we have to prepare for this targets to be acheived.

To day the market opened on a strong note and also continued to move up and closing virtually at the top of the day but still below the high of the day. it may also be noted that whole during the day nifty did not move below the low of the yesterday indicating that the bulls are not prepared to take the market down and they appears to be strong atleast for the time being. So i may not be surprised if nifty moves up tomorrow also . Yesterday i have indicated that the 5th wave failure might have happend and we might see the market going down atleast for the time being but 5160 has to be broken in three days or so. i have also indicated that if the fourth wave forms into a flat then we might see the market moving up after touching 5200. it appers that from the chart that the second wave might be a zig-zag so the 4th wave might be a flat or a triangle so it appears to me that we might have compleated the 4th wave or in the process of compleating the same the compleation of the same would lead take the market up for the one last time to wards 5400 to 5500 levels and then corrects. what i have obsered technically is that generally market gives a false break out and then tanks taking every body with it. I have given both the altrenative-1 and also alternative-2. the wave count for alt-1 is given in red and for alt-2 is given in green. so just follow the market.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is friend.