Weekly technical Analysis for week ended
2nd May 2015
This week being
truncated week nifty opened at 8330 made a high of 8334, low of 8144 and
finally closed at 8181. It can be seen that the opening was nearly at the high
of the week and close was at the low of the week. For the last three weeks the
market has been closing at the low of the week which is clearly indicating that
the bears are dominating the market and we have to see whether the same would
be continued in the coming weeks also as the market is now as very crucial
levels.
One of the
important to be noted is that nifty has broken the trend line drawn joining all
the lows from august 2014 and has closed below it for second consecutive week
which is a bearish indication. Another point to be noted is that nifty is
exactly at 200 week EMA. Nifty has touched 200 day EMA for the first time after
February 2014 means after 13 months (Fibonacci again). So now we clearly at a
very crucial level and any breach of 200 day EMA would be good news for bears
as we can see a considerable correction in coming weeks or months. As indicated
in last week nifty has also broken the 21 month trend line and is continually staying
below it for three continues weeks which is a confirmation of the break of the
trend line and also weakness in the market after a long time.
Another thing to
be noted is that 20 day EMA has moved below 50 day EMA and also 100 day EMA
which is also a confirmation of bearish signal also 50 day EMA is also on verge
of moving below 100 day EMA which would again confirm the other bearish signals
discussed above.
If 200 day EMA is
taken out we have all the chances of market moving towards the red line
indicated in the chart below which happens to be the trend line drawn joining
the bottoms from 2003, the bottoms joined were of 2003,2008,2009 and 2013 so we
can expect market finding support at around there levels. this levels is also
the break out level from 2008 highs. So
if 200 day EMA is taken out we have chances of market moving towards 6500-6800
levels. Will the market move to those levels only time would tell and we have
all chances of moving towards those levels. in short term we might see a relief
rally but once this is over then we can expect market drifting down wards. One
crucial level to be watched in coming weeks is 200 week EMA which happens to be
around 8181 so keep a watch of that levels.
Mahiidar M
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.
