Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 5th March 2011.
This week was one of the eventful week as there was budget on Monday February the 28th. The market was very volatile on the day of budget and there after started to moved up for whole of the week. After so many weeks we have seen good green candle. Does this indicate good news for bulls, the answer appears to be no as the volumes are not good during the entire week. The volumes were heavy only during the day of budge where in the market moved very wildly and closed at the near low of the day thus indicates that bears are strong and during the remaining days even though the market has moved up with convincing bull candles the volumes were not so encouraging for bulls. One of the important technical events which is waiting to happen and which could determine the movement of the market in coming weeks the direction is to be shown by the market. Nifty nearing one so many resistance levels, it is nearing or near confluence of EMA,It is near 200 day,100 day and 50 day EMA. Generally markets find resistance or support at confluence of EMA. This time it appears that they might act as a resistance. It can be seen from the chart on Friday market has reacted from 200 day EMA whether the same would be continued in the coming week we have to wait and see. All these EMA are moving down indicating that the down slide is possible unless and other wise markets move up very very swiftly and stays there till that time we have all chances of markets moving down. Another important technical event which has taken place during the week and it has also be overlooked by majority of analysts is that 50 day EMA has moved below 200 day EMA this is a very bearish signal and it is to be noted is that this is has happened for the first time after may 2009, it has moved below it after nearly 21 months(Fibonacci again) signifies that it is going to stay there for some longer time or months and till it stays below it we can continue to see markets moving down and all rises should be seen as an opportunity to liquidate our holding or taken as an opportunity to go short.
This week was one of the eventful week as there was budget on Monday February the 28th. The market was very volatile on the day of budget and there after started to moved up for whole of the week. After so many weeks we have seen good green candle. Does this indicate good news for bulls, the answer appears to be no as the volumes are not good during the entire week. The volumes were heavy only during the day of budge where in the market moved very wildly and closed at the near low of the day thus indicates that bears are strong and during the remaining days even though the market has moved up with convincing bull candles the volumes were not so encouraging for bulls. One of the important technical events which is waiting to happen and which could determine the movement of the market in coming weeks the direction is to be shown by the market. Nifty nearing one so many resistance levels, it is nearing or near confluence of EMA,It is near 200 day,100 day and 50 day EMA. Generally markets find resistance or support at confluence of EMA. This time it appears that they might act as a resistance. It can be seen from the chart on Friday market has reacted from 200 day EMA whether the same would be continued in the coming week we have to wait and see. All these EMA are moving down indicating that the down slide is possible unless and other wise markets move up very very swiftly and stays there till that time we have all chances of markets moving down. Another important technical event which has taken place during the week and it has also be overlooked by majority of analysts is that 50 day EMA has moved below 200 day EMA this is a very bearish signal and it is to be noted is that this is has happened for the first time after may 2009, it has moved below it after nearly 21 months(Fibonacci again) signifies that it is going to stay there for some longer time or months and till it stays below it we can continue to see markets moving down and all rises should be seen as an opportunity to liquidate our holding or taken as an opportunity to go short.
Negatives for the market:
· Nifty has moved below 200 day EMA during this week nifty has reacted from 200 day EMA.
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Monthly MACD has given a sell signal indicating extreme weakness in the market.
· 50 day EMA, 100 day EMA
· The deadly cross of 50 day EMA moving blow 100 day EMA and also 200 day EMA has happened which is clearly indicating extreme weakness.
· Daily stochastic oscillator is in sell mode.
Positives developing:
· Nifty is above 15 day EMA.
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal.
· Weekly Stochastic oscillator has just give a buy signal
Elliotte wave analysis: There is nothing new to that which has been given in my previous update. I would try to give you next week.
Pivot Point Analysis:
As per pivot point analysis, yearly Pivot is at 5716 and it is clearly gives an indication that nifty is blow the yearly pivot and which is a bearish indication and till it is below it, it has chances of moving towards s1 and s2. S1 is placed at 5093 and s2 is placed at 4053 so till nifty stays below the pivot of 5716 we can see nifty drifting towards 5093 and 4093. So now currently 5093 should offer support to the market so watch out for market to move to these levels. Nifty seems to have reached nearly 100 points away from 5093
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, March 5th 20.32 IST
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Monthly MACD has given a sell signal indicating extreme weakness in the market.
· 50 day EMA, 100 day EMA
· The deadly cross of 50 day EMA moving blow 100 day EMA and also 200 day EMA has happened which is clearly indicating extreme weakness.
· Daily stochastic oscillator is in sell mode.
Positives developing:
· Nifty is above 15 day EMA.
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal.
· Weekly Stochastic oscillator has just give a buy signal
Elliotte wave analysis: There is nothing new to that which has been given in my previous update. I would try to give you next week.
Pivot Point Analysis:
As per pivot point analysis, yearly Pivot is at 5716 and it is clearly gives an indication that nifty is blow the yearly pivot and which is a bearish indication and till it is below it, it has chances of moving towards s1 and s2. S1 is placed at 5093 and s2 is placed at 4053 so till nifty stays below the pivot of 5716 we can see nifty drifting towards 5093 and 4093. So now currently 5093 should offer support to the market so watch out for market to move to these levels. Nifty seems to have reached nearly 100 points away from 5093
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, March 5th 20.32 IST
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Thursday, February 24, 2011
India VIX is pointing towards a very bearish picture for the market. After struggling to move above 25 for long time nearly five months it has moved above it and is not placed at 28. It has successfully moved above the resistance line indicating the strength of the bears and a clear picture that bulls are running for cover. You can see in the chart-1 above that it has broken above the resistance line. As per elliotte wave it appears that we might have compleated wave-2 and have just begun the wave-3 and generally wave-3 would be longest so we can see it moving further up and there by take the market down. So the obvious question would be to what levels would the VIX go? it has been given in the chart-2 indicated by an arrow, and it seems that we might see VIX moving towards 50 levels nearly double from current levels indicating that the market might make as good fall before any recovery comes. As wave-2 has take considerable time we might see wave-3 spliting into its components. So it appears as per VIX that bears would be having the last laugh atleast for the time being.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is friend.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Bank nifty update
Bank nifty is showing all signs of weakness. And it appears that it is on its way to a heavy down wards movement. It can be seen from the chart above that 50 day EMa has moved below 100 day EMA indicated by (eclipse) this has happend for the first time after april-may 2009 and the gap between then is increasing indicating that we might see further down sides. it can also be seen in the chart above indicated by blue square that bnf has moved above 200 day EMA and has found resistance at 100 day EMA and there after started to move down and once again moved below 200 day EMA indicating the buying support is not comming into the banks and this is clearly a warning sign for bulls and bears would be happy as they are seeing the bulls are not interested in buying as of now.M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 19th February 2011.
Nifty opened on a strong note and continued to move up throughout the week, except on Friday where in market reversed. The movement on Friday should be of a concern for the bulls as market has opened strong on Friday moved up and there after mid in the afternoon it just collapsed to close at virtually at a two day low indicating weakness of bulls. Last week I have indicated if the market moves on Monday we have chances of seeing the nifty moving towards 5600 to 5700 levels and you can see nifty has made a high of 5599 and from there it fell nearly 150 points to close at 5458. Last three days gain was surrendered to bears in just half a day signifying the strength of bears. Friday’s movement is one of the significant move and it would not be good for bulls you might be wondering what it is? Nifty has moved near the 200 day EMA and from there it reversed and fell very violently. It is indicating that bulls are not strong enough to take the market above 200 day EMA. Buying pressure is not coming into the market at 200 day EMA indicates extreme weakness for the market. Now we have to see how the follow through happens, if in the coming week also the selling continues then god can only save bulls. Another thing which can is clearly visible on charts is that the rise of the last week was on low volumes than that of the rise, which is clearly indicating that the more buying pressure is not coming into the market.
Nifty opened on a strong note and continued to move up throughout the week, except on Friday where in market reversed. The movement on Friday should be of a concern for the bulls as market has opened strong on Friday moved up and there after mid in the afternoon it just collapsed to close at virtually at a two day low indicating weakness of bulls. Last week I have indicated if the market moves on Monday we have chances of seeing the nifty moving towards 5600 to 5700 levels and you can see nifty has made a high of 5599 and from there it fell nearly 150 points to close at 5458. Last three days gain was surrendered to bears in just half a day signifying the strength of bears. Friday’s movement is one of the significant move and it would not be good for bulls you might be wondering what it is? Nifty has moved near the 200 day EMA and from there it reversed and fell very violently. It is indicating that bulls are not strong enough to take the market above 200 day EMA. Buying pressure is not coming into the market at 200 day EMA indicates extreme weakness for the market. Now we have to see how the follow through happens, if in the coming week also the selling continues then god can only save bulls. Another thing which can is clearly visible on charts is that the rise of the last week was on low volumes than that of the rise, which is clearly indicating that the more buying pressure is not coming into the market.
One significant event which has happened two weeks back which is shown in the above chart. It can be clearly seen that On Balance Volume (OBV) which is very strong indicators has also give a very bearish indicator. It can be seen from the chart above that OBV has been steadily moving up from April 2009 indicating that continues buying has taken the market up and the trend was intact. It can be seen in the chart that in January 2011 BOV has broken the trend line drawn from March 2009 and it was also associated with break of trend line of the price which is clearly indicating the buying has ended and selling is coming into the market. As OBV has broken the nearly 21 month trend line it is clearly indicating that bears have become active in the market and more selling is coming into the market which is clearly shown in the falling OBV. So till OBV turns up bulls would not have any hope.
Negatives for the market:
· Nifty has moved below 200 day EMA.
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Monthly MACD has given a sell signal indicating extreme weakness in the market.
· Nifty is below 15 day EMA, 50 day EMA, 100 day EMA
· The deadly cross of 50 day EMA moving blow 100 day EMA has happened which is clearly indicating extreme weakness.
· Daily stochastic oscillator is in sell mode.
Positives developing:
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal.
· Weekly Stochastic oscillator has just give a buy signal
Wolf Wave:
Last Month i have indicated that wolf wave has confirmed and we have a target of around 3500 and we have to see whether the same is achieved or not. Historically it has been seen that the success rate of wolf wave is very high around 85-90%, and virtually the targets are met after confirmation of the same. So we have to see whether the same is achieved or not.
Elliott wave Analysis:
I have indicated nearly at the end of December that if the alternative –II is correct then we have chances of seeing around 5300-5200. And see we nifty has made a low of 5177 and thereafter recovered very fast. Does that mean that we have formed a short term bottom? The answer seems to be “NO” as per Elliott wave it can be clearly seen in the above chart we might have completed the third of third and we might has just started to move up by way of wave four and there after wave-5 would start which would take the nifty below 5177 again towards 5000 levels. Last week I have indicated that wave-4 has all chances of taking nifty towards 5550 levels and there after wave-5 would start and take the market towards 5100 levels. Nifty has made a high of 5599 and there after started correction, which is giving an indication that wave-4 might have ended and we might have started wave-5 which can take the market down towards 5100 levels so we can see the market falling by nearly 300 points we have to wait and see whether that would unfold or not.
Pivot Point Analysis:
As per pivot point analysis, yearly Pivot is at 5716 and it is clearly gives an indication that nifty is blow the yearly pivot and which is a bearish indication and till it is below it, it has chances of moving towards s1 and s2. S1 is placed at 5093 and s2 is placed at 4053 so till nifty stays below the pivot of 5716 we can see nifty drifting towards 5093 and 4093. So now currently 5093 should offer support to the market so watch out for market to move to these levels. Nifty seems to have reached nearly 100 points away from 5093.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, February 20th 19.53 IST
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
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