SPML Infra - Rs.44

SPML infra the stock has moved above the 200 day EMA after nearly three years and now it has moved above it then retraced to 200 day EMA and about to move up now so a perfect technical buy with Stop Loss at 36.00. The company is a leading player in infra space. As the infrastructure space is about to turn around post mr.Modis PM, the margin of safety is very high as the stop loss is just 15% below the acquisition price. So its a technical and fundamental buy.

Public Sector Banks: there is something in the PSU banks. all the stocks have formed a similar patter and have give a break out at about same time and have started to move up. You might be thinking what is the pattern. All the PSU banks were hammered in last two and half years they have fallen by 60% to 70% from the top of 2011 and they have now moved above the 200 day EMA all at once and they have moved above it and then can back took support at 200 day EMA again and started to move up which is a very good technically. So considering this we can expect a healthy movement in the PSU banking sector in coming weeks. Also on the break out the volumes were heavy indicating that the interest is coming into the PSU banking sector. Techncially it appears that we might see atleast 20 to 30% move in these stocks. in any case the stop loss should be 200 day EMA. It they move below 200 day EMA just get out.

The charts are furnished below

 M.Mahidar Sri
Trend is Friend

Praj Industries: Rs.57/- the stock has broken the sloping trend line drawn from the top of 2008 which indicates probable trend reversal in the stock. even though the fundamentals have not improved technicals are indicating a trend reversal as six year trend line has been taken out. So technically the stock is a buy with Stop Loss at Rs.50.

M.Mahidar Sri
Enjoying Life

Punj Lloyd

Punj Lloyd:- also seems to be comming out of hibernation after nearly 6 years, it has been falling continually from 2008 as its financial position was continually becoming worst. if you see the chart from 2008 onwards the stock has been trading below 200 day EMA except for a three to four months in 2009. Now it has currently moved above 200 day EMA. If you see the second chart it has tried twice in last six months and failed indicated by red down facing arrows and in the third attempt it has moved above it then it retraced and move below it and not strongly moved above it which is a perfect technical set up as the stop loss is just near only the margin of safety is high. another point ot be noted is that if you can see in the first chart any move above 37 would result in the sloping trend line drawn from the top of 2008 is taken out which generally signifies a trend reversal in the stock. So watch out for Rs.36 as any move above it would trigger an upside movement of at-least 50% from that levels. Fundamentals have still not improved but generally technical s first show the reversals followed by  fundamentals. So as of now its a technical buy with stright stop loss of Rs.28.

M.Mahidar Sri

Trend is Friend.

Gammon India

Gammon India has moved above the 200 day EMA after october 2010 which is nearly 3 years, the break out is indicating that the stock is comming out of hibernation and it has chances of moving higher from current levels. The minimum retracement of fibonacci is comming to around 74 levels which is substantilly up from current levels of 18. It has also moved above 200 day EMA came down and took support at 200 day EMA and then now started to move up which is perfect technical set up and we can expect good movement from current levels. My personal view is that we can easily double from current level. what ever may be the case the stop loss should be any weekly close below 200 day EMA.

M.Mahidar Sri
Trend is Friend.

Polaris Financial technologies:

the stocks seems to be coming out of hibernation of nearly 13 years. the stock has been forming inverted heads and shoulders pattern over the period of 12-13 years this is very very long time for the pattern. it can be seen from the chart that the stock has been unable to break above the neck line at-least four times and this time it has broke above the neck line and that too on heavy volumes which is clearly indicating that the trend might be reversing. So techncially the stock has is a good buy with stop loss below the neck line. fundamentally the financials have been improving over fives years at CAGR at around 20% for last five years so it appears to be a good buy from current levels with stop loss at neck line, in any case the stop loss at 200 day EMA which happens to be around 140. The reverse h&S pattern is giving a target of double from the current levels.  But the very long term pattern formation is giving an indication that we might see a new all time high in years to come provided it stays above the neck line. 

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend. 

Nifty Update

nifty for the first time in the current rise from the 5950 the retracement of the last was done in a shorter time than the rise which is indicating that trend is turning weak. if the wave structure is complete the we can see the retracement to the low of the 4th wave low where in give a target around 6450 levels. If we apply fibonacci retracements then we have achieved the minimum retracement of 23.60%, if its taken out then we have chances of moving towards 38.20% and 50% retracement. which give a targets of 6512 and 6401, will it go to these levels it appears to be so. we have to wait till it is acheived or negated. on of the things to be noted is that nifty has also gone below 20 day EMA for the first time after nearly one and half month which indicates the the market has become weak, it has to move above it to confirm some strength so wait and watch for the same.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend

Enjoying Life