Yesterday we carried forwards on long with SAR at 16087(16112-23(filter)). to day market opened flat but after wards it started to fall steeply and hit our SAR we reversed our position to short as the SAR was hit. There after the market fell very sharply and closed at the low of the day indicating weakness of the market. Today i.e on 17th the market opened with gap up but it again moved below the yesterdays low prompting us to shift our SAR to pivot high formed today PH is at 15980 so SAR is at 16005 after buffer of 23 points. Now we have to see whether today the PH would be taken out or not. The the last long transaction there was a loss of 133 points.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Geometric-Rs.157/-

Geometri has made a new all time high in May 2014 and is maintaining, above it for last four months, and has started to move up now. Also notice the volumes which indicating that the accumulation has been going into the stock at all time high which is a positive for the stock and as it has started to move up now we can expect the stock to make a healthy up move in coming weeks and stop loss should be below the low of the consolidation at around 120 levels.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

CNX-PSUBANK- 3732

CNXPSU bank has moved above 200 week EMA in May and stayed above is for last 22 weeks its longest period for which it has stayed above it. previous in 2012 and 2013 it stayed above it for 14 and 13 weeks respectively and this time it is above it for far more time than the previous occasions, thus indicating the strength of bull in PSU stocks, this is clearly indicating that we might see a good movement in PSU banks in coming weeks, any move below 3350 would indicate reversal of the same. So till its above 3350 we can see good healthy movements in PSU stocks. 

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

CANARA BANK - Rs.414

The above chart is of Canara bank weekly chart. You can clearly see that CB has moved above 200 week EMA in may then came down and exactly taken support at it and started to move up. This is a perfect technical support and we can expect the stock to make a new 52 week high which is nearly 20% from current levels. Now the margin of safety is also high at below 200 week EMA. Stop Loss should be at daily close below 365/-

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

We have today carried forward one long taken on 9th of September 2014 with SAR at 16112. Today BNF opened on a weak note gap down, and later in the afternoon it started to move up and touched 16300 levels and during last one hour it collapsed and closed at around 16214. Today also no action SAR also remained as it is. in the present case we would shift SAR only on move above 16363 only till that time SAR remains at 16112. Today end we have carried one long with SAR at 16112. This is the beauty of the system as we need not do any thing during the side ways movement. You can see we have taken long on 9th at the end of the day and till not we are still carrying the same no trades in all these days. You might be wondering whether all these are paper trades or actual trades are being made. i am actually taking the position when ever its indicated whether up or down. For last four days i am carrying forward my position just sitting idle during market hours but i know that when ever the move comes i would be in that direction and chances of making handsome gains.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 12^th September 2014

I am writing this weekly update after nearly one month’s time. Nothing has happened during last one month on nothing has happened as far as elliotte wave point of view. For the week nifty opened with gap up moved up slowly and then started to fall and ended up slightly up compared to last week. Nifty has been maintaining above 20 day EMA for last so many months from march onwards, in the mean time it has found support on it for two times and then move up, so till it maintains above 20 day EMA we can expect it to continue to move up slowly and steadily. 20 day EMA is at 8000 and 50 day EMA is at 7776 so these are the two levels to be closely watched as any correction in nifty is going to take support at these levels. if these are taken out then we can expect a healthy correction. But till that happens we can expect the market to move steadily upwards.

Till now in this uptrend, the retracement have been taking longer time than the rise, till this phenomenon is continued we can expect the market to make a steady up move. If that trend is reversed then we can expect the uptrend is over, till now it has not happened in last six months, once that happens the same can would be reported in our weekly update till that happens we can safely assume that uptrend is intact.

Elliott Wave Analysis:

I have been pointing out that nifty is moving in a corrective wave and we are in the up move in the corrective wave. The details working from the low of October 2008 is given in the following charts.

The above chart is from October 2008 to till date. As per my calculation we have completed wave –A which took 200 day from January 2008 to October 2008 and from there onwards we stated to form wave-B and we are still in formation of wave-B only. Wave-A of wave-B was from October 2009 to October 2010 and wave-B of wave-B is from October 2010 to Dec 2011 and we are in wave-C of wave-B from then onwards till date. We have completed wave-A and wave-B of larger wave-B and we are in formation of wave-C of wave-B from low of December 2011 onwards. Wave-C is splitting into its components and we have completed wave-1 and wave-2 and we are in formation of wave-3 of wave-C of larger wave-B. It is forming more complicated wave structure and now splitting into its components.

The details breakup of the wave-B is indicated by arrow in the above chart-1 is give below:

It can be seen that the wave-C of overall wave-B is given in the chart-2 above it can be seen that the wave-C is splitting into its components i.e. into 5 waves the 5 waves are being shown in blue colour in the above chart. It can be clearly seen that the wave-1 and wave -2 have completed and we are not in formation of wave-3 of wave-C of larger wave-B. It can also be seen in the above chart that wave-1,2,3,5 of wave-3 have completed and we seems to have started the wave-5 of wav-3 of wave-C of larger wave-B. The waves break up of wave-3 to 5 is given in the chart 3  below.

The break up of wave-3 is given in the above chart. It can be seen that we have completed wave-4 in July 2014 and we are still in completion of the same. It seems that we are in wave-5 of the wave-3 and it seems that we have completed wave-1 and 2 of wave-5 and we are in formation of wave-3 of wave-5. It appears that we might have completed wave-1 of wave-5 and we are forming wave-2 of wave-5 after which wave-3 would start so we can expect the market to move up on completion of wave-2 as per this we might not see nifty going below 8049 and maximum 7855( which is doubtful). So we can expect a slight sideways movement post which we can expect it to make an up move. The wave-1 was of length 468 points so if the wave-3 extends the we can expect it to be of length 758 points from the low of wave-1 which gives a target of 8619. Wave-3 would be generally be more that the wave-1 so it would be at-least 470 points means 8332. Once the wave-3 of higher wave-3 is completed we can expect the market to correct wave-4 and then the wave-5 would start post which market would culminate and we can start an down move which would be longer that the corrections which we have seen in recent 3-4 years. So it seems there is some time till the market tops and we have scope for up-move in the markets. This interpretation is as per now and as it changes or progress the relevant medications to the wave structure would be worked out and updated in our weekly updates.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

September 14, 2014 6:18 PM

Yesterday i did not post as i was unwell. Yesterday and today we carried forward on long at 16220. yesterday it was gap down opening above our SAR so the rule says that SAR remains as it is BNF moved below our SAR but did not go below the filter which we use, so we continued with our positions but shifted our SAR to yesterdays low. Today it opened on a positive note and there after it fell every sharply but maintained above our SAR, so during last two days we did not do any thing except shifting our SAR. Today we carried our one long with SAR at 16112 minus filter of 23.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.