Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 19^th September 2014

During the week there appears to be a tough fight between bulls and bears in first two days bears were in control and next three days the bulls were in control. During the wee Nifty opened at 8070 made a low of 7925 and thereafter recovered with vengeance and made a high or 8160 and closed at 8121. For the week the index closed with green colour indicating that the close is higher that open and also this week’s close is higher than that of the last weeks indicating the bulls are still in control of the market as of now. The weekly candle has long tail and has formed what appears to be a hammer indicating that the bears have tried hard to take the market down but bulls have give a tough fight and were successful in taking the market up. So till the low of 7925 is violated in the coming week we can see market drifting up only. So till that happens we can expect the market to slowly and steadily inch upwards.

As far as Elliott wave is concerned nifty did not go below the low of the 4^th wave at 7855 which I have indicated in my last weeks up date. This indicates strength of the bulls. This week also we have to see whether this would be violated if this is taken out nifty has all the chances of moving towards 7540  but as of now it appears far off. But nothing can be ruled out. As of now it appears that we might have completed wave-1 and wave-2 of wave – 3 of wave-5 of larger wave-3. It is an assumption as of now the movement in the coming week has the possible chances of altering the structure. Till then we have to make this assumption. If wave-2 has completed at 7925 then we can easily see new high in the coming weeks easily. So we have to wait and watch in the coming weeks.

 Now we look at the probable targets as per elliott assuming that the wave-2 has ended at 7925. Wave -1 is of length 640 points so we can safely assume that the wave-3 would at-least be equal to that wave so we have a target of min 640 points from 7925 giving a target of 8565. But we have to wait and see whether the structure assumed is correct or not let the market give the direction. As the market moves the wave structure also evolves and suitable chances would be made to align with the wave structure.

M.Mahiidar

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Trend is Friend.

September 21, 2014 5:25 PM

Allahabad Bank-125/-

Allahabad bank has moved above 200 week EMA in may june 2014 and there after corrected for three months and came down and move below 200 week EMA and now moved above it indicating strength of the bulls. Its a perfect technical set up and has chances of making a new 52 week high in weeks to come. So it becomes a buy with Stop loss at 110. any close below 110 would indicated weakness on weekly charts.

M.Mahiidar

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Trend is Friend.

We carried forward one long with SAR at 1603Today BNF opened on a weak below yesterdays low prompting us to shift SAR to 15972. There after it moved above SAR Prompting us to reverse our positions to long with SAR at todays low. There after it started to move up and formed Pivot Low prompting us to shift SAR to 16035. BNF closed virtually at the days high indicating the strength of the bulls. We carried forward on long with SAR at 16035.

M.Mahiidar

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Trend is Friend.

Yesterday we carried forwards on long with SAR at 16087(16112-23(filter)). to day market opened flat but after wards it started to fall steeply and hit our SAR we reversed our position to short as the SAR was hit. There after the market fell very sharply and closed at the low of the day indicating weakness of the market. Today i.e on 17th the market opened with gap up but it again moved below the yesterdays low prompting us to shift our SAR to pivot high formed today PH is at 15980 so SAR is at 16005 after buffer of 23 points. Now we have to see whether today the PH would be taken out or not. The the last long transaction there was a loss of 133 points.

M.Mahiidar

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Trend is Friend.

Geometric-Rs.157/-

Geometri has made a new all time high in May 2014 and is maintaining, above it for last four months, and has started to move up now. Also notice the volumes which indicating that the accumulation has been going into the stock at all time high which is a positive for the stock and as it has started to move up now we can expect the stock to make a healthy up move in coming weeks and stop loss should be below the low of the consolidation at around 120 levels.

M.Mahiidar

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Trend is Friend.

CNX-PSUBANK- 3732

CNXPSU bank has moved above 200 week EMA in May and stayed above is for last 22 weeks its longest period for which it has stayed above it. previous in 2012 and 2013 it stayed above it for 14 and 13 weeks respectively and this time it is above it for far more time than the previous occasions, thus indicating the strength of bull in PSU stocks, this is clearly indicating that we might see a good movement in PSU banks in coming weeks, any move below 3350 would indicate reversal of the same. So till its above 3350 we can see good healthy movements in PSU stocks. 

M.Mahiidar

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Trend is Friend.

CANARA BANK - Rs.414

The above chart is of Canara bank weekly chart. You can clearly see that CB has moved above 200 week EMA in may then came down and exactly taken support at it and started to move up. This is a perfect technical support and we can expect the stock to make a new 52 week high which is nearly 20% from current levels. Now the margin of safety is also high at below 200 week EMA. Stop Loss should be at daily close below 365/-

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.