Central Bank-64.45/- the stock seems to have moved above 200 day EMA yesterday with a good green candle. the stock has moved above the 200 day EMA in May 2014 made a high at around 88 levels and then again came back to test the 200 day EMA and started to move up again a perfect technical set up for a buy, one of the positive things is that the the margin of safety is high, the stock can be bought at current price with stop loss at recent lows of 58 nearly 10% down fall. one point to be noted is that the previously in june it found resistance at 200 week EMA and currently the 200 week EMA is around 75 levels, so any break out above 75 would  be a very very good news for bulls where in it can easily move to make a new high.

All be happy and peace

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying life

Trend is friend.

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 25^th October 2014

I am writing this update after nearly one month, I was out for a fortnight, and was not in a position to post the updates. But was following the market, it seems nothing much seems to have happened in the mean time. Nifty is nearly at the same level when I left. This week we would see what the structure as of now is giving considering the pattern formed. Where there is upside potential or we have all chances of market moving down from current levels.

During the week which was a truncated week market opened at 7896 made a high of 8031 and finally closed at 8014 nearly at the high of the week which signifies that bulls were successful in maintain the market at higher levels, bears tried hard but were not position to take it down. During last some weeks the market has been weak it has gone below 20 day EMA, 50 day EMA but they has found support at around 100 day EMA and from there reversed to move above the 50 day EMA and 20 day EMA signifying the strength of the bulls. But the up move consists of 2 gap up openings which did not give much chance for traders to make money in the ensuing market. Now we have to see where market goes on to make a new all time high or falls from these levels. currently it seems that the market has a good support at 100 day EMA which happens to be at 7690 till market is above it we can expect the market to inch upwards. Any breach of 100 day EMA would open gates for the market to move towards the 200 day EMA. World market seems to be forming good bearish patterns and which seems it might affect the movement of our market but the pattern our market are important.

We would now see what is in store for us as far as Elliott wave is concerned.

The elliotte wave update is given in the two charts above. The first chart is the long term count and the second chart is the wave breakup of the current wave.

As per the pattern in appears that we are in the third of the third of the fifth wave. It seems that we might have started the wave-iii of wave-3 of larger wave-5 of the larger wave-C. As it has moved below 7855 we have to change the wave structure as the movement took it into the area of the wave-1 we have to alter the structure to the lover wave structure. As of now it appears the same as the market progresses we might have to change the structure if we move below the last weeks low 7723 then it appears that we have to rework the wave structure. If the wave-3 has started then we can expect the market to move towards 8510 and 8700 levels, but if market does not go near these levels at-least 8510 then we can expect bears can take the market all the way toward 100 day EMA or the 200 day EMA. Till then enjoy the uptrend.

May all be Happy and at Peace

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

DXC USD index

 DXC USD index has risen very fast in 10 weeks indicating the change in trend. the fall from 85 to 79 levels took 44 weeks and the same was retraced in 21 weeks indicating that the trend might have reversed and it confirms that doller is expected to strengthen against other currencies. it has also broken above the trend line from November 2005 a nine year trend line which is generally a signal for trend change. so we have to see now how it behaves. The time factors is confirming that we might see it moving upwards to first 90, then 96 and 102 levels. DXC has moved above 200 day EMA, and 200 week EMA and not its nearing 200 month EMA at 87. 200 month EMA has not been taken out in last 11 years any break out above 87 has all chances of triggering a bull run which could easily take it to 100 levels. So in coming weeks we can expect strength in USD against all currencies.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

On friday we bought forward one short with SAR at 15515. on Friday it was gap up but below our SAR so SAR remains as it is. Later in the day BNF moved above SAR forcing us to go long closing our short position. We have made a profit of 525 points in mean time. We went long on Friday the  26th Sep. on Monday and today the market did not do any thing and we also did not do any thing even not even shifting SAR. Today at EOD we carried forwards on long with SAR at 15387.

In september all closed positions resulted in total net gain of 728 points.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 27^th September 2014

This week nifty opened on slightly positive note and there after bears dominated the market for three days (thanks to supreme court ruling on coal blocks) post which on Friday bulls regained some ground thanks to S&P upgrading. Nifty opened at 8084 made a high of 8159 made a low of 7841 and finally closed at 7968. For the current week it has made a red candle indicating that bears have somewhat gained upper hand during the week. During this week nifty has move below 20 day EMA took support at 50 day EMA(7838) and started to move up. For last three days it has closed below 20 day EMA which indicates that bears are trying hard to take the market down. Market is not appears to be oscillating between 20 day EMA (8011) and 50 day EMA(7838). So as of not 50 day EMA is acting as support and 20 day EMA is providing resistance. We have to see whether nifty would successfully move above 20 day EMA which it has done in the past whenever it moved below it. if it 20 day EMA offers resistance the it would again turn towards the 50 day EMA which if taken out has all chances of nifty moving towards 100 day EMA at 7616. So we have to keep a close watch at all these levels as selling pressure might come as resistance and buying pressure might be coming at the support levels, which might give buying and selling opportunities to the traders. 

 

One bearish pattern which was confirmed during the current week was the Wolf wave formation. it has formed and last week it has broken below the 1-3 trend line moved above it and this week it has again moved above it and again moved below it and closed below it which confirms the pattern. Nifty has to move above the 1-3 trend line indicated by green arrow in the above chart and if not we have all the possible chances of nifty moving towards the red arrow which happens to be around 7150 levels. So till it’s below the neck line we can expect the market to slowly drift towards the red arrow. We have to see what happens in the coming week.

 

Elliott wave analysis:

I have indicated that nifty has support at 7855 and this week nifty has just taken support at that levels and bounced with vengeance. With this min retracement has completed. It this is taken out then we have all possible chances of it moving towards 7540 which the low of wave-2. If now we can assume that on Friday the wave-2 of wave-3 of larger wave-5 has completed and we might head towards 8400-500 levels. Still it is not confirmed we have to wait for confirmation in the coming weeks.

  

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.
28th September 2014 time:16.50 IST

We bought forward on short with SAR at 15900. on 25th BNF opened flat and there after stated to fall continually. During the entire day we have only three green candles only which indicates bearishness whole through the day. To day we need not do any thing but shift SAR to the lower as the market is slowly moving down. As it was settlement day for Sep series we have to close our current months position and take short position in the next month series. So we carried forwards the oct series short with SAR at 15490. You can see the beauty of the system as the market trends we get good profits.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Monday we bought forward one long with SAR at 16032. It opened gap down below our SAR. So the rule says that we have to wait for the first 15 minute bar to complete and SAR to be placed at the low of the bar. We have done accordingly but SAR was not hit as later in the day it formed a pivot and move above the previous high prompting us to shift our sar to 16040.
At EOD we have carried forward on long with SAR at 16040.

On Tuesday we bought forward one long with SAR at 16040. market opened flat but started to slowly drift down wards and finally moved below our SAR prompting to shift our position to short with SAR at days high. In the long transaction which was closed on tuesday we made a profit of 68 points. later in the day the market moved down and closed at the low of the day. 

Today we bought forward one short and to day also market started to drift down wards but in the mean time formed a pivot high which prompted to shift our SAR lower. BNF started to drift lower through out the day and closed at the virtually low of the day. At EOD we carried forward one short with SAR at 15900( including buffer of 23 points)

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is friend.