Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 8^th  November 2014

This week was a truncated week and nifty opened at 8348 made a high of 8365 and closed at 8337. Nifty moved in a tight range of 60-70 points indicating that the market is consolidating to gain strength after a big move previous week in order to make a good move in coming weeks. The truncated week with just 3 days trading is generally a boring market. As the entire week the market was trading in a narrow range indicating that the market wants to move up post the consolidation. The market is trading at all time highs indicating that the bulls are ruling that market. The gap between the 20 day EMA and the closing price is around 250 points which is a big gap and during the last one to two years it’s the highest (except on election result day) which is giving an indication that the market might consolidate for some days before it attempts to move higher. Even if the market move up we can easily assume that the market would correct. It is better for the market to consolidate before it makes again all time highs.

It appears that as the market might consolidate, we can expect the stocks especially the mid-cap stocks might be active and we can expect a good move in them the patterns are suggesting. In my blog I only try to indicate only the stocks which are fundamentally strong as if the stocks move is not supported by fundamentals you can also loose very fast.

As far as elliotte wave is considered there is not much change in the structure as nothing has happened during the week. It is still pointing towards the nifty movement towards 8570 levels. So we have to wait till this is achieved.

May All be peacefull and Happy

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Gold-USD1145 in September http://mahis9.blogspot.in/search/label/Gold i have indicated that gold if moves below 100 month EMA it would trigger another bout of selling. Now gold has moved below the 100 month EMA which is very bearish for the gold. Gold has gone below it for the first time after december 2002 nearly 12 years so a huge bearish sign for the bulls in gold.So now comes the obvious question comes what would be the next target for gold. It would come to 50% retracement of the entire rise from year 2000 onwards which gives a target of 1082 which has to be closely watched if it is taken out then we can say that bulls would be decimated in gold as the next target is nearly 200 USD below at around USD 886. But we have to wait and watch at 1082 and then take a decision. we can expect a bounce from 1085 levels. So bears are active in gold as of now.

May All be peaceful and Happy

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

Speciality Restaurants-Rs.172/- i have been waiting for long for this stock to make a 52 week high to enable me to buy into this stock. The stock hsa just made a 52 week high. in June it found resistance at 200 week EMA and now it has successfully moved above it indicating that bulls have conquered this area and not it appears that the stock has all possible chances of making all time high which is around 230 levels. so we can expect a rise of 30 to 40% from current level. The margin of safety is very high as the stop loss can be safely be put ant 200 week EMA which happens to be around 153 levels.

May all be peaceful and happy

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

JMC project-Rs.150/- the above chart is a weekly chart. the stock moved above  200 week EMA in Third week of may and from then onwards consolidating there only that too above 200 week EMA which is a clear sign of strength in the stock. once the stock move above the consolidation range it becomes a buy with stop loss at the low of the consolidation range. Fundamentally also the company is performing well, it has a TTM EPS of around 8.Technically a good buy with stop loss at the low of the consolidation.

May all be peaceful and happy

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Excel Industries - 384/- Made an all time high after slightly consolidating for nearly two months. Notice the volumes also they are very high, and also it was a gap up opening over previous high and that too on volumes which clearly indicates that the stock has further potential to move up substantially. Fundamentally also the company has been performing very very well. its TTM EPS is around 28 and also last three to four quarters were exceptionally good indicating that the up move is supported fundamentally also which indicates that the movement is genuine and we can expect further upside movements. As the stock has moves substantially till now also the margin of safety is very low but we should consider stop loss below the close of previous high. So we can put stop loss on close below the Rs.320/-.

May all be peacefull and Happy
M.Mahiidar
Enjoying life
Trend is Friend.

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 2^nd  November 2014

Nifty this week continued from what it left over last week, last week being a truncated week not much could not happened.This week started on Monday with slightly red candle and what followed thereafter was something spectacular. It opened 8064 made a low of 7985 and made a high of 8330 and closed at 8322. The close was virtually at the high of the week clearly indicating that bulls have won hands down and the way it raised it indicates that we are in for a further upsides in the market. During the whole week the market stayed above 20 day EMA which is a positive sign and by the end of the week the gap between the two is more than 300 points so we can expect some cool off period and then start the up move. The market made an all time high and the way it moved above the previous high with a force and also very good volumes indicates that we have some way to go before any meaning full correction can be effected.We would see the probable targets in elliott wave explained below.

Elliott wave update

It appears that we are in the third of the fifty wave of the overall third wave of the larger wave-C. As the market did not go below the previous weeks low. Now we can safely assume that we have completed wave-ii at 7723 and we have started the wave-iii which has a target of around 8570 at-least for the current wave which I have also indicated in the last weeks update and as of now also this target remains same. If this is taken out then we have all chances of seeing movement above 9000 levels in coming months. We have to keep a wait and watch on the market at every step. I would also work on other indices of NSE and try to post the same in the coming weeks to see what nifty midcap and CNx-200 and CNX-500 are indicating. So as of now bulls are ruling and it makes sense to be long in the market rather than trying to catch on the corrections.

May All be peacefull and Happy

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

USDJPY-112/- USDJPY has formed a excellent H&S pattern over a period of 6 years which is very good and this is indicating bullishness of USD against JPY and the target for the same comes to around 135-140 levels. So the pattern is clearly indicating that JPY would depreciate in coming weeks or months.

May all be peacefull and Happy.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.