Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for week ended 24th April 2009
Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 18th April, 2009.
In the beginning of the week bears were active in nifty and in the last two days bulls came with a vengeance and recovered what ever is lost in the earlier part of the week. With the completion of the week nifty has been continuously raising for the last seven week and the coming week also we might see nifty raising in the earlier part of the week or whole week to complete 8 weeks of continues rise as 8 happens to be Fibonacci we might see the markets correcting larger that that of the previous 8 weeks. If nifty does not fall for next two weeks we might see nifty rising further for another five weeks. So this week we might see nifty raising slightly up and there after correct. As the coming week is the derivatives settlement week, it appears to be a volatile week. So be prepared for the same.
One point to be noted is that nifty has risen above the 200 day moving average after struggling to move above it during the previous week. As nifty has moved above the 200 day EMA we might see long-term funds coming into market as majority of funds will invest only when indices trade above the 200 day EMA. So the closing of indices above the 200 day EMA gives a good opportunity to go long on the market with stop loss at 200 day EMA currently. Another point to be noted is that Relative Strength Index(RSI) has about to give –ve divergence on daily charts and Momentum Index is also showing –ve divergence indicating that nifty has at-least chances of correcting in good way. As the negative divergence is coming at a time when Fibonacci weekly rise of 8 weeks is coming near so we cannot rule out a correction in the coming week.
In the beginning of the week bears were active in nifty and in the last two days bulls came with a vengeance and recovered what ever is lost in the earlier part of the week. With the completion of the week nifty has been continuously raising for the last seven week and the coming week also we might see nifty raising in the earlier part of the week or whole week to complete 8 weeks of continues rise as 8 happens to be Fibonacci we might see the markets correcting larger that that of the previous 8 weeks. If nifty does not fall for next two weeks we might see nifty rising further for another five weeks. So this week we might see nifty raising slightly up and there after correct. As the coming week is the derivatives settlement week, it appears to be a volatile week. So be prepared for the same.
One point to be noted is that nifty has risen above the 200 day moving average after struggling to move above it during the previous week. As nifty has moved above the 200 day EMA we might see long-term funds coming into market as majority of funds will invest only when indices trade above the 200 day EMA. So the closing of indices above the 200 day EMA gives a good opportunity to go long on the market with stop loss at 200 day EMA currently. Another point to be noted is that Relative Strength Index(RSI) has about to give –ve divergence on daily charts and Momentum Index is also showing –ve divergence indicating that nifty has at-least chances of correcting in good way. As the negative divergence is coming at a time when Fibonacci weekly rise of 8 weeks is coming near so we cannot rule out a correction in the coming week.
Elliotte wave: The Elliotte wave analysis of the indices movement is furnished below
The break up of the wave in the current upmove is give above it appears that we might have completed wave A and B and we might be in the process of forming Wave-C which has chances of raising 230 to 400 points from the low of 3300. first target is nearing any move above that will take it to around 3700 levels. Any move below the support line is going to see a healthy correction.Individual stocks:
Power Finance Corporation:Rs.157/-
It appears PFC is technically looking very good at these levels. it can be seen from the above chart that it has moved above the resistance level from at 150 and also the break out is on heavy volumes indicated by a circle. It appears that the stock is on its course to atleast 200 giving a upside potential of 30% if 200 is taken out we might see it moving towards 250 and also all time high. So fundamentally and technically also the stock is a very good buy. Stop loss Rs.135/-Geodesic Ltd – Rs.78/-
It appears from the above chart that geodesic ltd is poised for further upsides in the coming weeks and months. The very very heavy volumes at rise from last two to three weeks suggest that the stock appears to be on its way to Rs.100 any break of the same has chances of it moving towards its intermediate high of Rs.175/- but Rs.100 at this stage appears to be a most probable target giving an 50% upside potential from current level.Voltas Limited – Rs.59/-
It appears from the above that Voltas limited appears to have given a very good technical break out and also see the volumes they are extremely high indicating that some informed investors are slowly coming into the stock and it is going to blast off from the current levels. it appears that the stock is on its way to Rs.75 the Rs.100 and there after to 150/. It is a fundamentally strong company and is technically poised for a good move. So Technically and fundamentally a good buy. Stop loss:Rs.50/-
Directional Momentum index
As indicated in my last weeks update bulls have taken firm grip on the market. DMI has moved from 32 to 39 levels indicating that bulls are still holding upper hand. As the DMI is moving above 40 we can see a huge volatility in the market with upward bias in the market.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday, April 26, 2009 8:23:38 PM IST
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Nifty Swing Trade for 23rd April 2003
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in sell mode and the trend will reverse on move above the 3500 level (future).The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – sell ( generated at 3355)
Reversal Value - 3500.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4808(future)
Current Trend – sell
Reversal Value - 4964
Nifty is unable to sustain above the 200 day moving average giving an indication that, indices might move down before making any attempt to conquer 200 Day EMA.
As per pivot chart the following is the indication
Nifty current trend – down
Reversal only on close above 3385
Bank Nifty – down
Reversal only on close above 5037
As per two day swing trade currently it is in sell mode and the trend will reverse on move above the 3500 level (future).The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – sell ( generated at 3355)
Reversal Value - 3500.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4808(future)
Current Trend – sell
Reversal Value - 4964
Nifty is unable to sustain above the 200 day moving average giving an indication that, indices might move down before making any attempt to conquer 200 Day EMA.
As per pivot chart the following is the indication
Nifty current trend – down
Reversal only on close above 3385
Bank Nifty – down
Reversal only on close above 5037
M.Sri Mahidar
Monday, April 20, 2009
nifty daily swing trade for 21st April 2009
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3330 level (future). If NF goes below 3330 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3330.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4983(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4910
Nifty is unable to sustain above the 200 day moving average giving an indication that, indices might move down before making any attempt to conquer 200 Day EMA.
As per pivot chart the following is the indication
Nifty current trend – down
Reversal only on close above 3431
Bank Nifty – neutral with down ward bias
Shorts can be initiated with a stop loss of 5072
M.Sri Mahidar
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3330 level (future). If NF goes below 3330 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3330.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4983(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4910
Nifty is unable to sustain above the 200 day moving average giving an indication that, indices might move down before making any attempt to conquer 200 Day EMA.
As per pivot chart the following is the indication
Nifty current trend – down
Reversal only on close above 3431
Bank Nifty – neutral with down ward bias
Shorts can be initiated with a stop loss of 5072
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Nifty Weekly Update for week ended April 18th 2009
Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 18th April, 2009.
Nifty opened positively for the week and went on to make a new six months high and touched 3500 and then started to fall. One important thing that has happened during the week is that nifty as moved above the 200 day MA and closed above it for one day and for remaining two days even though it moved above it, it was not able to close above 200 Day EMA, thus giving an indication that indices have exhausted and need some rest before conquering the 200 Day EMA. Now 200 day EMA becomes a formidable resistance to the market for the coming week. Another important thing to have happened that the 20 Day EMA has moved above the 100 day EMA signifying that markets are gaining strength and we have very good chances of moving further upsides. Even 50 day EMA is also just about to move above the 100 day EMA proving the strength of the bulls so now it’s a buy on every 200-300 fall. The 20 day EMA has moved above the 100 day EMA after nearly 15 months indicating that bulls are stronger compared to entire last years. During the last bull run from 2003 to 2008 when ever 20 day EMA has moved above 100 day EMA 50 day EMA has also moved above it and nifty has risen by around 1000 to 1500 points from that cross over. Considering this as crossovers have happened now only we have to closely see whether the crossovers will sustain or not. On sustaining we can see the market moving up atleast 20%to 30% from current levels. So keep a close watch. As long as nifty is above 3000 we have all chances of moving towards 4000
As nifty is in highly over bought zone and started to correct from there we might see market correcting during the week towards 3200 levels and then make an attempt to move past the 200 day EMA so this week we might get good opportunity to go long at lower levels.
Nifty opened positively for the week and went on to make a new six months high and touched 3500 and then started to fall. One important thing that has happened during the week is that nifty as moved above the 200 day MA and closed above it for one day and for remaining two days even though it moved above it, it was not able to close above 200 Day EMA, thus giving an indication that indices have exhausted and need some rest before conquering the 200 Day EMA. Now 200 day EMA becomes a formidable resistance to the market for the coming week. Another important thing to have happened that the 20 Day EMA has moved above the 100 day EMA signifying that markets are gaining strength and we have very good chances of moving further upsides. Even 50 day EMA is also just about to move above the 100 day EMA proving the strength of the bulls so now it’s a buy on every 200-300 fall. The 20 day EMA has moved above the 100 day EMA after nearly 15 months indicating that bulls are stronger compared to entire last years. During the last bull run from 2003 to 2008 when ever 20 day EMA has moved above 100 day EMA 50 day EMA has also moved above it and nifty has risen by around 1000 to 1500 points from that cross over. Considering this as crossovers have happened now only we have to closely see whether the crossovers will sustain or not. On sustaining we can see the market moving up atleast 20%to 30% from current levels. So keep a close watch. As long as nifty is above 3000 we have all chances of moving towards 4000
As nifty is in highly over bought zone and started to correct from there we might see market correcting during the week towards 3200 levels and then make an attempt to move past the 200 day EMA so this week we might get good opportunity to go long at lower levels.
Elliotte Wave: Elliotte wave structure of the last one and half year is furnished below,
It can be seen from the above that wave A appears to have completed and we might be in the “B” wave and the minimum retracement of 23.60 is over on movement above 3400 and the next target happens to be 38.2% which is at around 4000 so any move above 3400 will take nifty towards or near 4000 levels.
Directional Momentum index
As indicated in my last weeks update bulls have taken firm grip on the market. DMI has moved from 32 to 37.60 levels indicating that bulls have gained upper hand. +D1 line is above –D1 line and is still rising indicating that bulls are slowly and steadily coming into the market and taking control of the market.
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3355 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3358 it has chances of moving towards 3301 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3325.
As per pivot chart it appears that nifty has turned from up move to down move in shorter term and till nifty does not move above 3431 down sides are not ruled out so currently we may short nifty with stop loss of 3431
Banknifty
Current Price - 5058(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4862
Individual stocks
XL telecom and energy:Rs.39
This stock has fallen from around 500 levels to around 20 and now it has just started the up move with some good volumes indicating that worst may be over for the stock and we have very good upside potential. The company has been performing exceedingly well for the last three to four years exept the last quarter ended December 2008 where the profits were not much. It has an TTM eps of around 15 and is trading at a PE of just 2.5. Another point to be noted is that the stock is quoting at 50% below its net net current assets. What is net net current assets it is net current assets minus long term loans divided by no of outstanding shares. Net net current assets per share works to around Rs.67 and is quoting at 38 indicating that the stock is grossly undervalued. Warren buffet used to invest on the basis of net net current assets during bear market and he used to make killing in such stocks. So it’s a great value pick at this point of time. Stop loss Rs.28/-
M.Sri Mahidar
April 19, 2009 8:55:55 PM IST
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Nifty daily swing trade
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3325 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3325 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3325.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4885(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4684
Any move below 4817 will give an indication of a bears coming into the market and only on close below 4630 will confirm the same
Yesterday nifty has moved above 200 Day EMA and today immediately it fell below it so now it becomes a formidable resistance now and as it has moved below the same we have chances of nifty moving towards 100 day EMA which is place at around 3100.
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3325 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3325 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3325.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4885(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4684
Any move below 4817 will give an indication of a bears coming into the market and only on close below 4630 will confirm the same
Yesterday nifty has moved above 200 Day EMA and today immediately it fell below it so now it becomes a formidable resistance now and as it has moved below the same we have chances of nifty moving towards 100 day EMA which is place at around 3100.
M.Sri Mahidar
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Nifty daily swing trade
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3325 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3325 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3325.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 5053(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4630
Any move below 4817 will give an indication of a bears coming into the market and only on close below 4630 will confirm the same
Nifty is sustaining above the 100 day EMA for more than one week, and also it has gone above the November high of 3240 giving an indication that intermediate trend might have turned up. Currently nifty finds support at 100 day EMA any breach of the same will result in healthy fall in nifty.
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3325 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3325 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3325.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 5053(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4630
Any move below 4817 will give an indication of a bears coming into the market and only on close below 4630 will confirm the same
Nifty is sustaining above the 100 day EMA for more than one week, and also it has gone above the November high of 3240 giving an indication that intermediate trend might have turned up. Currently nifty finds support at 100 day EMA any breach of the same will result in healthy fall in nifty.
Technically as per Envilop nifty has for the first time during the rise has moved above the envilop and is 500 points above the upper line indicating the more bullishness has come to the market and it might correct any point of time. During the last two years during the bull run it did not go out of the envilop and during the fall of last one year it wen twice and then market reversed to enter into the market. Thus implying the this is a peculier situation and we migh sooner than later see a healthy correction which has chances of taking nifty into the envilop which is placed a 3100 so be prepared for it.
M.Sri Mahidar
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