Examples of investments at all time highs giving good returns:

The above chart is of TCS which has out performed when the market were not moving any where from 2010 to 2013 end. In march 2010 TCS has formed an all time high which has all chances of prompting to buy with stoploss. The Buy would be around 750 levels and you see over the period of last four years the stock has trebled. If you see the financials its a debt free company, from 2005 to 2010 its EPS has increased from 10 to around 35 indicating that the financials were improving fully and there after also the EPS was increasing year on year and now FY-14 it has an EPS:106. You can see that if a fundamentally strong company when makes a new high its a buy and chances of giving good returns are really high. All the black arrows are the buy points.

the above chart is of NATCO pharma it made an all time high at 167 in 2010 and it is nearly a 9 timer in last four years when the market did not move any where except for last six months. During the three years prior to new high its turn over has trebled and EPS has more than doubles and with consistent increase during all these years signalling that the fundamentals are improving and has a potential out-performer in making and look what has happened.over last four years also its margins were improving and also EPS was consistently increasing.

 The above chat is of Page industries. it made all time high in 2009 at around 500 levels and not its a 16 timer during most of the period the market did not move any where. If you see the financials three years prior to new high the EPS was increasing at the rate of 30-40% along with increase in turnover and improve in margins. These all point towards improving financials necessitating a buy and if you see from then onwards till now it EPS has increased at an CAGR of 38%. EPS has increased from 28 to 147 and you see the price. 

I can give you innumerable examples which has give spectacular returns after they make a new all time high. So all time high is not a point to sell but atleast we should try to buy if the last three financials of last three years(at-least two years) are improving and latest quarters are also promising then its a buy but with Stop loss either technically or as per individuals risk apatite. 

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Today i carried forward on long with SAR at 16163.Today was an event full day, market swinging from one direction to other. In this we have our SARs being hit. The market opened slightly strong there after it moved down and hit our SAR so we reversed our position to short resulting in loss of 51 points. There after it made a low of 16135 and after that it reversed and started to move up and closed at 16238. During the last 5 minutes we reverse our position to long as on the basis of EOD reversal.

EOD reversal- (its only on the day in which the position is taken) the market hits our SAR and we reverse our position to short and on the same day if at the close it moves up and move above our SAR( which has resulted in taking short position) then we should reverse our position to long. The reason being that the bears did not have strength to taken it lover that the SAR which signifies the strength of the bull considering this we reverse our position to long. 

we carried forward long with SAR at 16160.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

On Monday i carried forwarded one short with SAR at 16125. On monday market opened above our SAR, so the rule says that if we are short and there is gap up opening above our SAR wiat for the first 15 min bar to complete and shift SAR to high of the bar plus gap filter in line with it we have shifted our SAR to the 16214 and later in the day SAR was hit and we shifted our position from short to long and market continued to stay above it. In the short transaction we have made a loss of 145 points. Monday we carried forward our long with SAR at 16163(16188-23).

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

All of us who are investing into stock market are looking for strategies for investing into stocks at correct price and getting out at top. Generally it is said that buy low and sell at high price easy said done. Difficult to identify the low and also high price. Generally people perceive that buy low means that it should be bought at low price compared to its all time high price, the lower the better and wish to sell at the high price probably at 52 week high all time high. So generally to identify the low price novice investors look into 52 week low stocks and try to buy at 52 week lows planning to sell when it moves up. But the market is market, generally 52 week low stocks further go down denting the confidence of the investors and they finally blame the market or the so called analysts. They dont have strategy to buy and also no strategy to sell so they suffer.But they generally do not make an slight effort to understand the market, i generally donot call understand the market but i call it as following the market.

To day i wish to bring into one strategy which has all possible chances of giving good returns over period of time.

The strategy name is

All time high:

Generally people are reluctant, to buy at all time high, as they thing that if the stock is at all time high then it should be sold and not bought so they refuse to look at the stock which is at all time high. But actually its the point to buy. Here the all time high is made after some consolidation the longer the period the better.You should buy at all time high made after consolidation, with stop loss at the nearest pivot low or the 200 day EMA or 100 Day EMA. Stop loss is a must for either trading or investments.
Now comes the question why any body should be encouraged to buy at all time high. Technically all time high signifies that the buyers have out done all the sellers till that point of the time. Meaning that buyers are more that sellers and this becomes the case for buy. And also the investors might be betting on the improved financials in the stocks which they intend to buy.
 
Now the question comes whether one should look to buy stocks which make all time high, it cam be done, but to protect our selves one should stick to stocks which are fundamentally good. The fundamentals should be improving over last three years at-least last two years. Higher the growth year on year the better. Look in the recent quaters if the quarterly results are also improving QOQ then its also is a good news. Higher the growth rate the better, all these point out that the company is fundamentally good and is fundamenatals are improving justifying the price( all time high). Usually i look into % increase in EPS YOY and QOQ to decide on buy decision. The higher the % increase the better.
I always try to buy the price at all time high and the fundamentals are improving. i have seen so many stocks which have made all time high and after that they have risen substantially from those levels.
I would give one or two examples today and would give those stocks which have give spectacular returns to the investors who have bought at all time high.

 The above chart is of Aarti Drugs, it made an all time high in october 2012 and it corrected to the neck line and then from there it reversed and went on to make all time high again in february 2014 after nearly 1 and half year consolidation. if you see the fundamentals at that point of time its have it has CAGR increase in EPS for last three year at 39% and latest quarters also the increase in EPS was around 40% QOQ for last three to four quarters  which clearly point towards the improving fundamentals and investors are prepared to pay high price for the stock and look what happened the stock has been nearly 4 timer in short period of time. the two red arrows are the probable points of buy.
Another stock:

The above chart is of Granules india it made an all time high in 2012 came down and took the support of the trend line, moved below it and made a spring line reversal and made again all time high at around 200 in January 2014. If you see the fundamental at that point of time the EPS has increased at a CAGR of 52% for last three quarters and the latest 3 quartes the % increase in EPS was more than 100% all these were pointing towards improved fundamentals and justifying the price at all time high and it has turned 4 timer from those levels in very short period of time.

Fundamentally strong stocks when they make all time high after long time they become a screaming buy with high margin of safety. but in any case we should have stop loss to the extent of which you are prepared to take.

I would give other examples which have been 20 to 30 timers in last five years when the market was not so good.

Any clarifications are welcome and glad to confirm the same

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

we carried foward one long from thursday and on friday the bnf opened on strong note but later in the day it weakned and moved below our SAR prompting us to go short(closing our long) position bnf was fluctuating in the range only and made a new days low prompting us to lower or SAR to 16125.

At close we carried forward one short with SAR at 16125. We have made a loss of 23 Points in our long trade which was closed on friday.

You might be wondering how to indentify the pivot low and Pivot high and when SAR has to be shifted. i would from tuesday onwards would explain the same and if any clarification is required you might put a message which i would be happy to clarify.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Intra-day update

BNF we carried forward long, today bnf opened positively and gave us an opportunity to shirt SAR to 16070/- later in day today it moved below the SAR, prompting us to shift our position to short with SAR at days high. Loss in the transaction- 23 points. I would try to furnish the intraday updats when ever the SAR changes or position or shifted.

M.Mahiidar 

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Bnf trades for 4th of August 2014, we have carried forwarded on short, today the market moved slowly down making new lows giving us an opportunity to shift SAR we shifted to SAR to 16102 and later in the day bnf moved above it prompting us to shift our position to long from short at 16102. so total profit made in short trade is 22 points. We carried forward long with SAR at the low of the day at 16097.

today ie. 5th of aug it opened on a positive note and in the mean time it formed a pivot low prompting us to shift our sar to 16070/-

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.