Granules:Rs.102

Granules has made an all time high after nearly 10 months of consolidation the break out is on huge volumes indicating that some informed buying has gone into the stock. it has taken Support exactly at 200 day EMA and then bounced generally above 200 day EMA bulls are active.Fundamentally the company has been working really good and the profitability has been continually increasing over last 10 years indicating that the rise is on strong and improving fundamentals. I wish to put stop loss at 200 day EMA as of now.

Mahiidar M
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

Indian Oil Corporation:Rs.454

IOC has made all time high just now and notice the volumes on the break out move which is huge indicating that huge amount of informed buying has gone into the stock. Bulls seems to be active in the stock. I have kept a stop loss at Rs.375/-

Mahiidar M
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 20^th June 2015.

Nifty opened on slightly weak note then onwards it started to move up and was in continues uptrend for the last five days  and one noticing feature of the up move was that all the candles were green candles indicating that bulls are trying all means to take the market up. This week they did not give bears any chance to fight back. So can we consider that the down move is over and we can expect the market to make a new high? The answer appears to be no. it can become yes only when nifty move above 8500 in next two days which seems to be difficult. One positive thing for bulls which has happed on Friday was that nifty was able to move above 200 day EMA and sustain there for whole day we have to see whether market would be able to sustain above it for the whole week to indicate strength.

It can be seen from the above that nifty has been finding resistance at 50 day and 100 day EMA indicated by red arrows for the last three months and unless and otherwise both are taken out decisively we cannot say that the trend has reversed. Another point to be noted is that nifty is making lower lows and lower highs shown by black arrows. Till that is being maintained we can expect the market the market to drift down wards. 

Another point to be noted is that the re-tracement of the fall is taking longer time indicating that the bulls are not as strong as it appears to be that is the reason I have indicated earlier that we have to move past 8500 in next two days. So if we do-not move past that level in next two days we can easily expect the market to at-least test the bottom or move below it.  So still technical parameters are indicating that the market is in down trend and has all chances of continuing the trend in coming weeks. So be cautious with the current up move as it can reverse at any point of time.

Mahiidar M

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Point and figure chart is clearly indicating that central bank is in for a healthy fall. Central bank has broken the buying level at around 102 levels. This clearly indicates that central bank has entered a selling area and we can expect a healthy fall in the stock atleast 20 to 30% from current levels till 102 is not conquered.
So better watch out

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 13^th June 2015.

During the week Nifty has opened at 8124 made a high of 8163, made a low of 7940 and closed at 7982 virtually at the low of the weak. This is an indication of weakness in the market. On Daily charts nifty has closed below 8000 which is a bearish signal for the bulls. Off late 8000 was acting as a formidable support, buying pressure was coming when nifty but this time bulls seems to have not offered much support. Weekly close below the 8000 level is a bearish indication for bulls. In the next week nifty has to conquer 8000 other wise there should be a violent fall in the market. Nifty has also moved below 200 day EMA move up and found resistance at the same levels and then started to fall, giving a perfect technical support. 8200 is the 200 day EMA below it bears are going to rule the market, it is the level which the long term investors would be looking at. Another point to be noted is that 20 day EMA has moved below 200 day EMA which has happed for the first time after September 2013 which is also a bearish indication for the market.

Another point to be noted is that nifty has moved below 50 week EMA for the first time after September 2013 which is also a bearish indication. 50 week EMA is at 8124 and the high of the week is at that levels only so nifty has to moved it to offer any strength to the bulls otherwise we can expect worst for the market. If history is to be see some bad weeks or months can be expected for the market. You might be wondering what is it, during the last 10 years whenever the nifty has moved below 50 day EMA and sustained it has all the way went down and moved below or found support at 200 week EMA. 200 day EMA is at around 6700 levels, so if nifty fails to conquer 8130 we can surely expect it to move towards 6700 levels which happen to be 20% from current levels so we can easily expect the same levels. Even FIIs are not in a buying mode in last one to one and half month. All these are pointing towards bearish market in coming months. So brace for the same unless and other wise market successfully move above 200 day EMA so we have to keep a close watch at 8200 levels.

As have indicated in earlier update nifty has formed H&S pattern and any breach of neck line would give a target of 6700 levels for the nifty. And this week nifty has broken below the neck line and if nifty sustains below it then we can expect the target to ne achieved.

It May be noted that more that 60% of the nifty stocks are quoting below 200 day EMA and most of the other stocks are also around 200 day EMA only pointing towards possible down side for the market. So brace for the same.

Mahiidar M

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Technical Analysis of Market

My charting software has some problem and not opening where i have all my studies that why any updates are not posted i am posting this update as market is at very critical level i.e. make or break level.

Nifty has been showing signs of weakness from last so many weeks. It has been making lower lows and lower high which is clearly an indication of weakness. Whenever we see intra day movement in nifty when ever any up move comes it is being met immediately by sellers which is clearly indicating that bears are becoming strong day by day and bulls are trying every ammunition in their arsenal to check mate bears and so far has not been successful, once the resistance is broken decisively then we can expect a violent fall in the market.

Nifty has moved below 200 day EMA in may 2015 and then went up and faced resistance at 50 day and 100 day EMA and then started to move down and again moved below 200 day EMA. The resistance offered by 100 day and 50 day EMA is clearly a sign of weakness. So now nifty has to move above first 200 day EMA and then 100 and 50 day EMA to indicate any strength. Nifty has moved below 200 day EMA twice in 30 days which has happened in august 2013 and in 2012 which is clearly an indication that we might be seeing weakness which has not been seen in last one and half to two years. Another sign of weakness is 50 day EMA has moved below 100 day EMA and the distance between them is slowly increasing indicating that the pace of fall is going to increase in coming weeks unless and other wise bulls stage a spectacular fight back.

Nifty has formed one H&S pattern and the second one is on the verge of completion.

First H&S pattern

As can be seen from the above nifty has formed an H&S pattern broke below the neck line in last week of april and then moved up and exactly found resistance at the neck line and started to move down and is moving down which is a perfectly H&S pattern set up and the minimum target comes to around 7500 levels nearly 600 points from current levels will it go there it seems to be.

Now we see the second H&S pattern.

As can be seen above that nifty is forming a H&S Pattern and is on the verge of breaking the neck line. The neck line is at 8000 which has offered support two time earlier and we have to see if the same offers support now also. If the neck line is taken out the we can expect a violent fall towards first 7500 and then to around 6700-6800 levels. So it seems that 8000 is the make and break for nifty as it just near it we should be very carefully watch the same any breach of same would be party for bears.

Mahiidar M

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 2^nd May 2015

This week being truncated week nifty opened at 8330 made a high of 8334, low of 8144 and finally closed at 8181. It can be seen that the opening was nearly at the high of the week and close was at the low of the week. For the last three weeks the market has been closing at the low of the week which is clearly indicating that the bears are dominating the market and we have to see whether the same would be continued in the coming weeks also as the market is now as very crucial levels. 

One of the important to be noted is that nifty has broken the trend line drawn joining all the lows from august 2014 and has closed below it for second consecutive week which is a bearish indication. Another point to be noted is that nifty is exactly at 200 week EMA. Nifty has touched 200 day EMA for the first time after February 2014 means after 13 months (Fibonacci again). So now we clearly at a very crucial level and any breach of 200 day EMA would be good news for bears as we can see a considerable correction in coming weeks or months. As indicated in last week nifty has also broken the 21 month trend line and is continually staying below it for three continues weeks which is a confirmation of the break of the trend line and also weakness in the market after a long time.

Another thing to be noted is that 20 day EMA has moved below 50 day EMA and also 100 day EMA which is also a confirmation of bearish signal also 50 day EMA is also on verge of moving below 100 day EMA which would again confirm the other bearish signals discussed above.

If 200 day EMA is taken out we have all the chances of market moving towards the red line indicated in the chart below which happens to be the trend line drawn joining the bottoms from 2003, the bottoms joined were of 2003,2008,2009 and 2013 so we can expect market finding support at around there levels. this levels is also the break out level from 2008 highs.  So if 200 day EMA is taken out we have chances of market moving towards 6500-6800 levels. Will the market move to those levels only time would tell and we have all chances of moving towards those levels. in short term we might see a relief rally but once this is over then we can expect market drifting down wards. One crucial level to be watched in coming weeks is 200 week EMA which happens to be around 8181 so keep a watch of that levels.

 Mahiidar M

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.