Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 14th February 2009.
Nifty all through the seek has been trading in a band of 100-120 points and up to Thursday it was in a band of 50 points between 2870-2920 and it was only Friday it has made some movement. Nifty opened during the week on 2843 made a low of 2840 high of 2969 and closed at 2948 a rise of nearly 100 points over the previous weeks closes. One point may be noted is that nifty did not move below the last weeks closing price during the entire week indicating that bulls are at present maintaining the price and it appears to be seen whether they will be in a position to maintain the same at higher levels for long time. On weekly charts nifty has during the previous week has formed a hammer which is a bullish sign and followed it up with a green candle during the current week giving an indication that bulls may be taking center stage at this stage of the market and we may not be surprised if higher levels are also achieved in the coming week. One point to be noted is that the low of the week i.e 2840 should not be violated at any cost as this would give bears an occasion to celebrate in a big way. So keep a close watch on 2840. Being a technical analysts I should not be speaking about the budget etc., but it appears that market is expecting some positive vibes in the interim budget which is going to be presented on Monday 16th February and once it is over the market is going to determine its own course either up or down but currently it appears that the bias is on the down side. One point to be noted and which I have been discussing over the week is that we are forming higher bottoms from the month of November onwards which is a very positive for bulls and at the same time we are also forming lower tops and it is narrowing now and we might see violation of one or the other and we might see a big movement in the direction of violation. Considering this the intermediate top is 3147 and them 3240 and violation of 3240 has all the chances of taking market to 3500 and above easily and the intermediate bottom is at 2661 and 2502 and any violation of the same will result in markets tanking to new lows i.e 2000-2200 levels. So we have to keep a very close watch on those levels.
Elliotte wave Analysis:
From last few weeks I am discussion two options one being triangle and other being a flat. Both of them neither are nor ruled out as of now and it appears it is in favor of triangle.
Nifty all through the seek has been trading in a band of 100-120 points and up to Thursday it was in a band of 50 points between 2870-2920 and it was only Friday it has made some movement. Nifty opened during the week on 2843 made a low of 2840 high of 2969 and closed at 2948 a rise of nearly 100 points over the previous weeks closes. One point may be noted is that nifty did not move below the last weeks closing price during the entire week indicating that bulls are at present maintaining the price and it appears to be seen whether they will be in a position to maintain the same at higher levels for long time. On weekly charts nifty has during the previous week has formed a hammer which is a bullish sign and followed it up with a green candle during the current week giving an indication that bulls may be taking center stage at this stage of the market and we may not be surprised if higher levels are also achieved in the coming week. One point to be noted is that the low of the week i.e 2840 should not be violated at any cost as this would give bears an occasion to celebrate in a big way. So keep a close watch on 2840. Being a technical analysts I should not be speaking about the budget etc., but it appears that market is expecting some positive vibes in the interim budget which is going to be presented on Monday 16th February and once it is over the market is going to determine its own course either up or down but currently it appears that the bias is on the down side. One point to be noted and which I have been discussing over the week is that we are forming higher bottoms from the month of November onwards which is a very positive for bulls and at the same time we are also forming lower tops and it is narrowing now and we might see violation of one or the other and we might see a big movement in the direction of violation. Considering this the intermediate top is 3147 and them 3240 and violation of 3240 has all the chances of taking market to 3500 and above easily and the intermediate bottom is at 2661 and 2502 and any violation of the same will result in markets tanking to new lows i.e 2000-2200 levels. So we have to keep a very close watch on those levels.
Elliotte wave Analysis:
From last few weeks I am discussion two options one being triangle and other being a flat. Both of them neither are nor ruled out as of now and it appears it is in favor of triangle.
The triangle which I have indicated during my last few weeks update is still not ruled out till the a-c line is violated it still holds good. The minimum target for the “e” wave has been achieved and it appears to me that we are in the completion of “e” wave. You might be having a doubt of what should be the maximum target of the “e” wave in this case till the a-c line is not violated the pattern holds good. The a-c line is at 3100, so till 3100 is violated on upper side we have all the chances of continuation of the “e”wave. As .618% of “e” wave is violated we are on our course to 3050 after which we might see the market tanking and violating the b-d line which is at 2700 so on nifty moving below the 2700 triangle will be complete and we might see the market moving towards the October 2008 lows. So in the current scenario 3100 and 2700 are the crucial levels to be watched out. So it appears when ever we are near to 3050-3100 our longs should be protected.
One of the points to be remembered in case of a triangle is that the “e” wave should take longer time that it took to form wave-d and shorter that that of “d” wave in value terms. With regard to the time period I has already took longer time that that of “d” wave and we should wait for it not to cross 3147 at any cost but prior to that we have to be watchful at the –a-c line at 3100 levels.
So during the current week keep a watch at 3050-3100 closely.
Flat:
You might be wondering why I am still discussing the flat in the current scenario. I have observed one phenomenon during the week which is still not indicating that the flat is ruled out so we will discuss the same below:
In the above case it appears that flat has completed and we might be in the formation of “b” wave of the 5th wave from top of 6347. In the above chart Flat appears to have completed at 3147 and we are in the “b” of the 5th wave and we might be in the final wave of the “b”. The wave “b” of the 5th wave is indicated by a parallel trend lines and we any violation of it on the lower side will open up market in favor of bears. The you might be having a doubt as to what will be the support which has to be broken in this case
It is at 2840 any break of 2840 will result in nifty opening gates on the down sides. So 2840 is the crucial level to be watched out for.
We should see the indices in the 10 minute chart which I see regularly for trends in shorter time frame
The 10 min chart which is shown above is indicating that we might be in the end of the “b” wave and any violation of the red line indicated in the chart will open up gates on down side atleast towards 2850 first and any break of 2850 will break up gates towards 2600 levels.The red line is present at 2900 and any break of the same should be taken as a shoring opportunity with stop loss at those levels. So Keep a close watch.
It appears the we are entering into a week which is very crucial for the future movement of the market. So the coming week is going to be a very event full weak for the market. So be prepared for the same.
Directional Momentum Index (DMI)
During the week DMI has slightly corrected from16.42 to 14.75. But +ve break out as +D1 line has moved above -D1. After positive break our the DMI is moving down indicating that the up move is lacking strength at this point of time. DMI is also indicating that nifty either movement is directionless. We have to watch out for movement of DMI above 20 for any strength of the direction. In October also it has give a positive break out after –ve break out and immediately has give a –ve break out and market tanked we have to see whether the same happens now or not.
Resistances: 2969/3000/3100/3150/3250
Supports: 2900/2840/2750/2661/2503/2223
One of the points to be remembered in case of a triangle is that the “e” wave should take longer time that it took to form wave-d and shorter that that of “d” wave in value terms. With regard to the time period I has already took longer time that that of “d” wave and we should wait for it not to cross 3147 at any cost but prior to that we have to be watchful at the –a-c line at 3100 levels.
So during the current week keep a watch at 3050-3100 closely.
Flat:
You might be wondering why I am still discussing the flat in the current scenario. I have observed one phenomenon during the week which is still not indicating that the flat is ruled out so we will discuss the same below:
In the above case it appears that flat has completed and we might be in the formation of “b” wave of the 5th wave from top of 6347. In the above chart Flat appears to have completed at 3147 and we are in the “b” of the 5th wave and we might be in the final wave of the “b”. The wave “b” of the 5th wave is indicated by a parallel trend lines and we any violation of it on the lower side will open up market in favor of bears. The you might be having a doubt as to what will be the support which has to be broken in this case
It is at 2840 any break of 2840 will result in nifty opening gates on the down sides. So 2840 is the crucial level to be watched out for.
We should see the indices in the 10 minute chart which I see regularly for trends in shorter time frame
The 10 min chart which is shown above is indicating that we might be in the end of the “b” wave and any violation of the red line indicated in the chart will open up gates on down side atleast towards 2850 first and any break of 2850 will break up gates towards 2600 levels.The red line is present at 2900 and any break of the same should be taken as a shoring opportunity with stop loss at those levels. So Keep a close watch.It appears the we are entering into a week which is very crucial for the future movement of the market. So the coming week is going to be a very event full weak for the market. So be prepared for the same.
Directional Momentum Index (DMI)
During the week DMI has slightly corrected from16.42 to 14.75. But +ve break out as +D1 line has moved above -D1. After positive break our the DMI is moving down indicating that the up move is lacking strength at this point of time. DMI is also indicating that nifty either movement is directionless. We have to watch out for movement of DMI above 20 for any strength of the direction. In October also it has give a positive break out after –ve break out and immediately has give a –ve break out and market tanked we have to see whether the same happens now or not.
Resistances: 2969/3000/3100/3150/3250
Supports: 2900/2840/2750/2661/2503/2223
M.Sri Mahidar,
15th February 2009, Time: 8.50 PM IST
No comments:
Post a Comment