Nifty has opened on a weak note and has continued to slide throughout the week and recovered in the last half on Friday. One of the noticing features of this week’s movement is that nifty was making low each day including Friday and also closing at lower than the previous day except on Friday which moved above the previous days high indicating that bulls are trying to regain the lost ground. The closing on Friday in indicating some strength this has to be confirmed by nifty not moving below the Fridays low and also closing above the high of Friday. So we have to see whether the up move is only the short covering or genuine buying which is happening. So the Mondays close would somehow confirm the strength of the bulls at-least for the short term. So keep a close watch on Monday.
This week also market has been continuing to move away from 200 day EMA, this is the third continues week that the market is closing below 200 day EMA indicating extreme weakness and also indicating that long term funds are not supporting the market. So till 200 day EMA is taken over bulls cannot be sure of any recovery. Last week in have indicated that 50 day EMA has moved below 100 day EMA indicating extreme weakness and this week also 50 day EMA has further moved down below 100 day EMA clearly indicating that bears have come into the market and every rise would be met with heavy selling. This is the first time that market has moved blow 200 day EMA after long time, it might an effort to conquer 200 day EMA, and we have to see whether 200 day EMA would offer good amount of resistance or not, usually it would offer huge resistance. If the market moves up and 200 day EMA offers resistance then it would offer good shorting opportunity with stop loss at that price so be watch full of markets any attempt to conquer 200 day EMA.
Negatives for the market:
· Nifty has moved below 200 day EMA.
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Monthly MACD has given a sell signal indicating extreme weakness in the market.
· Nifty is below 15 day EMA, 50 day EMA, 100 day EMA
· Daily and weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating further weakness.
· Weekly stochastic oscillator is in sell mode and is moving down indicating that every rise would be sold into.
· The deadly cross of 50 day EMA moving blow 100 day EMA has happened which is clearly indicating extreme weakness.
Positives developing:
· Daily MACD is in oversold position and is trying to give buy signal.
· Daily and weekly stochastic oscillators as in extremely oversold positions. Daily stochastic oscillators has give a buy signal and weekly oscillator is about to give a buy signal giving an indication that market might make an attempt to move up, but weekly and monthly indicators are in sell mode every rises would be sold into so be careful of any recovery.
Elliott wave analysis:
I have indicated nearly at the end of December that if the alternative –II is correct then we have chances of seeing around 5300-5200. And see we nifty has made a low of 5177 and thereafter recovered very fast. Does that mean that we have formed a short term bottom? The answer seems to be “NO” as per Elliott wave it can be clearly seen in the above chart we might have completed the third of third and we might has just started to move up by way of wave four and there after wave-5 would start which would take the nifty below 5177 again towards 5000 levels. so not the obvious question is to what extent the wave-4 can move up it appears that it can move up to 5550 levels and in any case not above 5700. So wait and watch whether this one begins to form. If it doesn’t happen then I have to see for another alternative which I would give only when the above doesn’t happen.
Pivot Point Analysis:
As per pivot point analysis, yearly Pivot is at 5716 and it is clearly gives an indication that nifty is blow the yearly pivot and which is a bearish indication and till it is below it, it has chances of moving towards s1 and s2. S1 is placed at 5093 and s2 is placed at 4053 so till nifty stays below the pivot of 5716 we can see nifty drifting towards 5093 and 4093. So now currently 5093 should offer support to the market so watch out for market to move to these levels. Nifty seems to have reached nearly 100 points away from 5093
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, February 13th 22.09 IST
No comments:
Post a Comment