Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 22nd April 2012.
The market has been one of the
boring for the last few weeks as it has not moved anywhere. For around nine
weeks nifty has been moving in the range of 5200 to 5650. As can be seen when
market comes to such a close range then it becomes very boring and also it also
gives an indication that we are about to get into a big trending market which
may be either up or down. If we take the up move from January onwards the rise
from 4550 to 5650 it took nearly eight weeks and not the corrective mode from
5650 to 5200 has taken around astounding eight weeks and the market has
corrected only 50% of the rise in possibly equal time periods which is giving
an indication the we might has the possibility to move up or a give a good up
move rather that the violent down move. You may be wondering this guy till now
bearish has suddenly started to give an bullish picture. I only give what the
market say as I always say price is the king remaining all is second. The
weekly chart is given a more good indication that that of the daily chart. Nifty is finding support at the 100 day EMA,
it has found support nearly three times in last one and half month which is a
clear indication that bulls are in the market and they are expecting the market
on the upside. As I have been saying in my previous updates also we are in an
uptrend and the market is going to make an attempt to move up till its above
the 100 day EMA and 200 day EMA. The 100 day EMA is at 5213 so till its above
it on weekly basis then we have all chances of market moving up and it may also
be noted is market is nifty is finding support at 100 week EMA and till its above
it, it is a good sign for the market the 100 week EMA is at 5207 so till market
is above it we can expect the market to move up. So considering all this it
appears that 5200 happens to be very good and a healthy support for the market and
if it is taken out on down side then we can expect the market to fall very
violently but till its above it we have all the chances of market moving up
only. So 5200 appears to be laxman rekha for the market. So till above it hope
for the market to move up
The weekly chart is given below you can clearly see that the market is
in a corrective mode for the last two months and slowly drifting down and also
notice the volumes are also very low which is indicating that the interest is
slowly drifting down and we may suddenly see interest setting in indicated by
the volumes and the market would move in a trending way and that too longer
that the earlier one. So we have to wait for the volumes to increase and show
us the direction.
Positive for the market:
·
Nifty is above 200 day EMA
·
Market is above 200 week EMA.
·
50 day EMA has moved above 100 day EMA which is
a bullish signal
·
Weekly MACD has give a buy signal indicating
that we might see up move to continue for some time. it can only be reversed
abruptly only when market falls heavily.
·
Daily MACD has given a buy signal.
·
Daily stochastic oscillator is in buy mode but
is at around overbought levels.
·
Weekly stochastic oscillator has give a buy
signal
·
One of the big positive signal which has been
generated is 50 week EMA has moved above 100 week EMA and also 15 week EMA has
moved above all the three.
Negatives
·
Monthly MACD is in sell
mode indicating weakness in the market.
Elliotte wave analysis:
As there is nothing much change in the EW structure I am not giving the same I
would give the updated structure in the coming week.
M. Sri Mahidar
Trend is
Friend
Celebrate
Life
Sunday, April 22nd
10.12 IST
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