Weekly technical Analysis for week ended
27th April 2012
I am writing this
weekly update after a long time, as I have myself decided to stay away from the
market updates and now I have decided to follow the market.
During the period
which I was away from the market (I was closely following the same) nothing much
seems to have happened market is nearly as the same levels as on that time.
During the week which was truncated week the market opened on a strong note and
started to moved up and continued to move up. This week was also the
derivatives settlement weak, so in the coming weak we might see a move but the
coming weak also have big event of RBI credit policy and market might not do
much till that event happens. But we have to discuss technical right.
Now the question
comes whether the up move from the January 2012 is a bull market or a up move
in the bear market. that market has taken 59 weeks from the high of 6335 in
November 2012 to the December 2011 low of 4531. From there on the market is
moving in a up move and currently it has completed 70 weeks and would be
entering 71 weeks and we are nearly 10% from the top so the retracement( up
move) has taken 20% more that the fall and we are still far away from the high.
So considering this the up move cannot be considered as a bull market up move.
To be a bull market the last was should be retraced in 50-60% of the time to be
power full even if its just equal it better but currently the time period is
far more that that is comfortable for the bulls. So when ever the down move
comes it would be very violent. Will
that happen or not we have to wait and watch. The market is maintaining above
200 day EMA so bulls are still favor of up move of the market and long term
investors are still in the market.
The above chart is a weekly chart and the fall took 59 weeks
and the rise has till now into 71 weeks and we are still far away from the top.
If you apply the longer time
frame from the high of January 2008 the market has fallen from January 2008 of
6354 to a low of around 2250 in October 2008 in nearly 43 weeks( or nearly 10
months) and now nearly 4 and half years have completed so we have completed
nearly 54 months and till now we are far away from the top and in this period
we were not able to move above the high. So we have nearly completed 5 times
the time period and still not able to move above the high. So still I can say
that we are still not in a bull market all these are uptrends in the bear
market and it appears that till the final fall happens we might not be seeing a
change is sentiment. The up moves are only a relief rallies.
I have given the time period
elements in this weeks update and I would be providing the Elliott wave updates
from the next week onwards or during the week.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend Celebrate Life
Sunday 28th April 2013 time 20.34
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