Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 8^th August 2014

Nifty has been falling whole during week and has closed at the lowest point of the week. During the week nifty opened at 7639 made a weekly high of 7752 and closed at 7568 which is near the weekly low of 7540. The close at the lowest point of the week is an indication that the bears have been successful in keeping the market down and has won over bulls. Also during the week nifty has tried to move above 20 day EMA taken resistance at it and there after started to fall from there this appears to be a perfect technical set up and can expect the market to move down even though we might has small bounces on upside. So till it moves above 20 day EMA which happens to be at 7669 we can expect the market to move down to make new lows in the coming weeks. As of now we can expect the trend to turn up on movement above 7752 or close above it. So till these levels are not broken we can surely expect the market to slowly drift down wards. As nifty has moved below20 day EMA we can expect to move towards 50 day EMA which happens to be at 7496 and if that is taken out we can expect to move towards 100 day EMA which happens to be at 7263. So till the 20 day EMA is taken out we can expect these levels to become realty.

Nifty has broken the sloping trend line drawn connecting the lows from 30^th May 2014, indicating weakness, it has broken the trend line with a gap down which is further indicating of weakness and we can expect the market to move to the lows of may 30 which happens to be around 7100 levels.

As per elliotte wave it appears that we might has completed a five wave up move from the low of February 2014 and we might have chances of seeing bigger correction which we have not seen in last six months. The market has retraced at least 23.60% previously so we can expect a minimum retracement of towards those levels which happens to be 7394 if this is taken out we can expect it to move towards the next Fibonacci of 7116. So these levels are to be closely watched as market has all chances of taking support at these levels.

The Elliott wave analysis of entire up move I would try to furnish in the coming week.

M.Mahiidar

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