USDINR has move above the crucial resistance level this week it closed above 62 after nearly 21 months( a Fibonacci) which is a very good technical indication. I have been waiting to close above 62 post the update. USDINR has been consolidating between 60.50 to 62 for last 5 months in the week ended 22 november it moved above it but closed below 62 but this week it moved above it and weekly close was also above it, which is a bullish signal for USD. The break out is indication that we might see it inching upwards in the coming months. It appears that it has all chances of making a new high. I can move above 70 in coming weeks so, we have to prepare for it.

Now we look into the Elliott wave- analysis of USDINR.

 The long term chart of the USDINR is furnished above; the chart is for more 40 years. It can be seen in the above chart that USDINR is moving in a channel and till now its intact in the coming weeks we might see it again moving above it before a correction can set in, this is also an indication that we have all chances of seeing a new high in USDINR. Given below is the Elliott wave break up of the wave indicated in blue circle above which started from the low of 39 in 2008.

  

 The above chart is the USDINR chart from the low of 2008 onwards, the wave-1 wave from the low of 39 to the high of 52 which lasted for 69 weeks. There after stated a consolidation, the wave-II which was a double combination a zig-zag and a triangle, the wave-II ended at 43.84 a fall of Rs.8.29 a fall of nearly 61.80%( corrected 63%) it lasted nearly 125 weeks there after stated the wave-3( larger wave) from around 43.84 we are still in forming the wave-3 only. The wave-1 of wave-3 was from 43.84 to 54.32 a rise of Rs.10.48 in 20 weeks there after the wave-2 of wave-3 stared and fell up-to 48.60 in 7 weeks. There we started to form wave-3 which started to break into its components as of now wave-1,2 of wave-3 of larger wave-III have completed and it seems we are in the wave-3 of 3 of larger wave-III, the wave-3 is further breaking into its components and we seems to have completed the wave-4, of 3 of 3 of larger wave-III. Now it seems that we might have stared the wave-5 and it seems that its again breaking into its components and we have to see whether it would move above the all time high. As the larger wave-III has not still completed and the completion seems to be far away as there are so many waves still have to be formed and we can expect the USDINR to move substantially from current levels. will we see a new high before budget we have to wait and see.

May all be Happy and Peacefull

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

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