Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for week ended 24th April 2009
Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 18th April, 2009.
In the beginning of the week bears were active in nifty and in the last two days bulls came with a vengeance and recovered what ever is lost in the earlier part of the week. With the completion of the week nifty has been continuously raising for the last seven week and the coming week also we might see nifty raising in the earlier part of the week or whole week to complete 8 weeks of continues rise as 8 happens to be Fibonacci we might see the markets correcting larger that that of the previous 8 weeks. If nifty does not fall for next two weeks we might see nifty rising further for another five weeks. So this week we might see nifty raising slightly up and there after correct. As the coming week is the derivatives settlement week, it appears to be a volatile week. So be prepared for the same.
One point to be noted is that nifty has risen above the 200 day moving average after struggling to move above it during the previous week. As nifty has moved above the 200 day EMA we might see long-term funds coming into market as majority of funds will invest only when indices trade above the 200 day EMA. So the closing of indices above the 200 day EMA gives a good opportunity to go long on the market with stop loss at 200 day EMA currently. Another point to be noted is that Relative Strength Index(RSI) has about to give –ve divergence on daily charts and Momentum Index is also showing –ve divergence indicating that nifty has at-least chances of correcting in good way. As the negative divergence is coming at a time when Fibonacci weekly rise of 8 weeks is coming near so we cannot rule out a correction in the coming week.
In the beginning of the week bears were active in nifty and in the last two days bulls came with a vengeance and recovered what ever is lost in the earlier part of the week. With the completion of the week nifty has been continuously raising for the last seven week and the coming week also we might see nifty raising in the earlier part of the week or whole week to complete 8 weeks of continues rise as 8 happens to be Fibonacci we might see the markets correcting larger that that of the previous 8 weeks. If nifty does not fall for next two weeks we might see nifty rising further for another five weeks. So this week we might see nifty raising slightly up and there after correct. As the coming week is the derivatives settlement week, it appears to be a volatile week. So be prepared for the same.
One point to be noted is that nifty has risen above the 200 day moving average after struggling to move above it during the previous week. As nifty has moved above the 200 day EMA we might see long-term funds coming into market as majority of funds will invest only when indices trade above the 200 day EMA. So the closing of indices above the 200 day EMA gives a good opportunity to go long on the market with stop loss at 200 day EMA currently. Another point to be noted is that Relative Strength Index(RSI) has about to give –ve divergence on daily charts and Momentum Index is also showing –ve divergence indicating that nifty has at-least chances of correcting in good way. As the negative divergence is coming at a time when Fibonacci weekly rise of 8 weeks is coming near so we cannot rule out a correction in the coming week.
Elliotte wave: The Elliotte wave analysis of the indices movement is furnished below
The break up of the wave in the current upmove is give above it appears that we might have completed wave A and B and we might be in the process of forming Wave-C which has chances of raising 230 to 400 points from the low of 3300. first target is nearing any move above that will take it to around 3700 levels. Any move below the support line is going to see a healthy correction.Individual stocks:
Power Finance Corporation:Rs.157/-
It appears PFC is technically looking very good at these levels. it can be seen from the above chart that it has moved above the resistance level from at 150 and also the break out is on heavy volumes indicated by a circle. It appears that the stock is on its course to atleast 200 giving a upside potential of 30% if 200 is taken out we might see it moving towards 250 and also all time high. So fundamentally and technically also the stock is a very good buy. Stop loss Rs.135/-Geodesic Ltd – Rs.78/-
It appears from the above chart that geodesic ltd is poised for further upsides in the coming weeks and months. The very very heavy volumes at rise from last two to three weeks suggest that the stock appears to be on its way to Rs.100 any break of the same has chances of it moving towards its intermediate high of Rs.175/- but Rs.100 at this stage appears to be a most probable target giving an 50% upside potential from current level.Voltas Limited – Rs.59/-
It appears from the above that Voltas limited appears to have given a very good technical break out and also see the volumes they are extremely high indicating that some informed investors are slowly coming into the stock and it is going to blast off from the current levels. it appears that the stock is on its way to Rs.75 the Rs.100 and there after to 150/. It is a fundamentally strong company and is technically poised for a good move. So Technically and fundamentally a good buy. Stop loss:Rs.50/-
Directional Momentum index
As indicated in my last weeks update bulls have taken firm grip on the market. DMI has moved from 32 to 39 levels indicating that bulls are still holding upper hand. As the DMI is moving above 40 we can see a huge volatility in the market with upward bias in the market.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday, April 26, 2009 8:23:38 PM IST
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Nifty Swing Trade for 23rd April 2003
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in sell mode and the trend will reverse on move above the 3500 level (future).The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – sell ( generated at 3355)
Reversal Value - 3500.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4808(future)
Current Trend – sell
Reversal Value - 4964
Nifty is unable to sustain above the 200 day moving average giving an indication that, indices might move down before making any attempt to conquer 200 Day EMA.
As per pivot chart the following is the indication
Nifty current trend – down
Reversal only on close above 3385
Bank Nifty – down
Reversal only on close above 5037
As per two day swing trade currently it is in sell mode and the trend will reverse on move above the 3500 level (future).The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – sell ( generated at 3355)
Reversal Value - 3500.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4808(future)
Current Trend – sell
Reversal Value - 4964
Nifty is unable to sustain above the 200 day moving average giving an indication that, indices might move down before making any attempt to conquer 200 Day EMA.
As per pivot chart the following is the indication
Nifty current trend – down
Reversal only on close above 3385
Bank Nifty – down
Reversal only on close above 5037
M.Sri Mahidar
Monday, April 20, 2009
nifty daily swing trade for 21st April 2009
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3330 level (future). If NF goes below 3330 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3330.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4983(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4910
Nifty is unable to sustain above the 200 day moving average giving an indication that, indices might move down before making any attempt to conquer 200 Day EMA.
As per pivot chart the following is the indication
Nifty current trend – down
Reversal only on close above 3431
Bank Nifty – neutral with down ward bias
Shorts can be initiated with a stop loss of 5072
M.Sri Mahidar
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3330 level (future). If NF goes below 3330 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3330.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4983(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4910
Nifty is unable to sustain above the 200 day moving average giving an indication that, indices might move down before making any attempt to conquer 200 Day EMA.
As per pivot chart the following is the indication
Nifty current trend – down
Reversal only on close above 3431
Bank Nifty – neutral with down ward bias
Shorts can be initiated with a stop loss of 5072
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Nifty Weekly Update for week ended April 18th 2009
Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 18th April, 2009.
Nifty opened positively for the week and went on to make a new six months high and touched 3500 and then started to fall. One important thing that has happened during the week is that nifty as moved above the 200 day MA and closed above it for one day and for remaining two days even though it moved above it, it was not able to close above 200 Day EMA, thus giving an indication that indices have exhausted and need some rest before conquering the 200 Day EMA. Now 200 day EMA becomes a formidable resistance to the market for the coming week. Another important thing to have happened that the 20 Day EMA has moved above the 100 day EMA signifying that markets are gaining strength and we have very good chances of moving further upsides. Even 50 day EMA is also just about to move above the 100 day EMA proving the strength of the bulls so now it’s a buy on every 200-300 fall. The 20 day EMA has moved above the 100 day EMA after nearly 15 months indicating that bulls are stronger compared to entire last years. During the last bull run from 2003 to 2008 when ever 20 day EMA has moved above 100 day EMA 50 day EMA has also moved above it and nifty has risen by around 1000 to 1500 points from that cross over. Considering this as crossovers have happened now only we have to closely see whether the crossovers will sustain or not. On sustaining we can see the market moving up atleast 20%to 30% from current levels. So keep a close watch. As long as nifty is above 3000 we have all chances of moving towards 4000
As nifty is in highly over bought zone and started to correct from there we might see market correcting during the week towards 3200 levels and then make an attempt to move past the 200 day EMA so this week we might get good opportunity to go long at lower levels.
Nifty opened positively for the week and went on to make a new six months high and touched 3500 and then started to fall. One important thing that has happened during the week is that nifty as moved above the 200 day MA and closed above it for one day and for remaining two days even though it moved above it, it was not able to close above 200 Day EMA, thus giving an indication that indices have exhausted and need some rest before conquering the 200 Day EMA. Now 200 day EMA becomes a formidable resistance to the market for the coming week. Another important thing to have happened that the 20 Day EMA has moved above the 100 day EMA signifying that markets are gaining strength and we have very good chances of moving further upsides. Even 50 day EMA is also just about to move above the 100 day EMA proving the strength of the bulls so now it’s a buy on every 200-300 fall. The 20 day EMA has moved above the 100 day EMA after nearly 15 months indicating that bulls are stronger compared to entire last years. During the last bull run from 2003 to 2008 when ever 20 day EMA has moved above 100 day EMA 50 day EMA has also moved above it and nifty has risen by around 1000 to 1500 points from that cross over. Considering this as crossovers have happened now only we have to closely see whether the crossovers will sustain or not. On sustaining we can see the market moving up atleast 20%to 30% from current levels. So keep a close watch. As long as nifty is above 3000 we have all chances of moving towards 4000
As nifty is in highly over bought zone and started to correct from there we might see market correcting during the week towards 3200 levels and then make an attempt to move past the 200 day EMA so this week we might get good opportunity to go long at lower levels.
Elliotte Wave: Elliotte wave structure of the last one and half year is furnished below,
It can be seen from the above that wave A appears to have completed and we might be in the “B” wave and the minimum retracement of 23.60 is over on movement above 3400 and the next target happens to be 38.2% which is at around 4000 so any move above 3400 will take nifty towards or near 4000 levels.
Directional Momentum index
As indicated in my last weeks update bulls have taken firm grip on the market. DMI has moved from 32 to 37.60 levels indicating that bulls have gained upper hand. +D1 line is above –D1 line and is still rising indicating that bulls are slowly and steadily coming into the market and taking control of the market.
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3355 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3358 it has chances of moving towards 3301 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3325.
As per pivot chart it appears that nifty has turned from up move to down move in shorter term and till nifty does not move above 3431 down sides are not ruled out so currently we may short nifty with stop loss of 3431
Banknifty
Current Price - 5058(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4862
Individual stocks
XL telecom and energy:Rs.39
This stock has fallen from around 500 levels to around 20 and now it has just started the up move with some good volumes indicating that worst may be over for the stock and we have very good upside potential. The company has been performing exceedingly well for the last three to four years exept the last quarter ended December 2008 where the profits were not much. It has an TTM eps of around 15 and is trading at a PE of just 2.5. Another point to be noted is that the stock is quoting at 50% below its net net current assets. What is net net current assets it is net current assets minus long term loans divided by no of outstanding shares. Net net current assets per share works to around Rs.67 and is quoting at 38 indicating that the stock is grossly undervalued. Warren buffet used to invest on the basis of net net current assets during bear market and he used to make killing in such stocks. So it’s a great value pick at this point of time. Stop loss Rs.28/-
M.Sri Mahidar
April 19, 2009 8:55:55 PM IST
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Nifty daily swing trade
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3325 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3325 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3325.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4885(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4684
Any move below 4817 will give an indication of a bears coming into the market and only on close below 4630 will confirm the same
Yesterday nifty has moved above 200 Day EMA and today immediately it fell below it so now it becomes a formidable resistance now and as it has moved below the same we have chances of nifty moving towards 100 day EMA which is place at around 3100.
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3325 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3325 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3325.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4885(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4684
Any move below 4817 will give an indication of a bears coming into the market and only on close below 4630 will confirm the same
Yesterday nifty has moved above 200 Day EMA and today immediately it fell below it so now it becomes a formidable resistance now and as it has moved below the same we have chances of nifty moving towards 100 day EMA which is place at around 3100.
M.Sri Mahidar
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Nifty daily swing trade
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3325 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3325 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3325.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 5053(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4630
Any move below 4817 will give an indication of a bears coming into the market and only on close below 4630 will confirm the same
Nifty is sustaining above the 100 day EMA for more than one week, and also it has gone above the November high of 3240 giving an indication that intermediate trend might have turned up. Currently nifty finds support at 100 day EMA any breach of the same will result in healthy fall in nifty.
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3325 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3325 it has chances of moving towards 3158 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3325.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 5053(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4630
Any move below 4817 will give an indication of a bears coming into the market and only on close below 4630 will confirm the same
Nifty is sustaining above the 100 day EMA for more than one week, and also it has gone above the November high of 3240 giving an indication that intermediate trend might have turned up. Currently nifty finds support at 100 day EMA any breach of the same will result in healthy fall in nifty.
Technically as per Envilop nifty has for the first time during the rise has moved above the envilop and is 500 points above the upper line indicating the more bullishness has come to the market and it might correct any point of time. During the last two years during the bull run it did not go out of the envilop and during the fall of last one year it wen twice and then market reversed to enter into the market. Thus implying the this is a peculier situation and we migh sooner than later see a healthy correction which has chances of taking nifty into the envilop which is placed a 3100 so be prepared for it.
M.Sri Mahidar
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3309 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3309 it has chances of moving towards 3122 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3309.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4882(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4439
Any move of banknifty below 4417 should be taken as an opportunity to short as it will trigger it to move towards 4000
Nifty is sustaining above the 100 day EMA for more than one week, and also it has gone above the November high of 3240 giving an indication that intermediate trend might have turned up. Currently nifty finds support at 100 day EMA any breach of the same will result in healthy fall in nifty.
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3309 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3309 it has chances of moving towards 3122 and there after 2951 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3309.
Bank Nifty
Current Price - 4882(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4439
Any move of banknifty below 4417 should be taken as an opportunity to short as it will trigger it to move towards 4000
Nifty is sustaining above the 100 day EMA for more than one week, and also it has gone above the November high of 3240 giving an indication that intermediate trend might have turned up. Currently nifty finds support at 100 day EMA any breach of the same will result in healthy fall in nifty.
Stock:
JMC projects: 82 
This is one of the stocks which is a technical beauty in making technically it appears a very very good buy. It has formed a higher tops and bottoms after nearly 13 months indicating that trend might have reversed and also further upsides are not ruled out. It has moved above 100 day EMA after nearly 13 months and also DMI has moved above 20 with +ve break out indicating that the stock might have just started its upward journey and higher targets are not ruled out. Stop Loss: Rs.60/-
This is one of the stocks which is a technical beauty in making technically it appears a very very good buy. It has formed a higher tops and bottoms after nearly 13 months indicating that trend might have reversed and also further upsides are not ruled out. It has moved above 100 day EMA after nearly 13 months and also DMI has moved above 20 with +ve break out indicating that the stock might have just started its upward journey and higher targets are not ruled out. Stop Loss: Rs.60/-
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Nifty Weekly update for week Ended - 11th April 2009
Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 11th April, 2009.
As indicated in last weeks update nifty has continued its upward journey. Nifty has decisively broken the 3240 barrier during the week without any hitch. It has been indicated in the last weeks update that this time the bulls are having strength and nifty will easily go past the barrier of 3240 and nifty has done the same. Nifty is precariously placed near the 200 day EMA which is at 3401. Nifty just touched it and reversed from those levels. Any body who is short on the markets can continue to hold the same till 3401 is taken out. If 200 day EMA is taken out the long-term bulls will come to the market which will further fuel the upward movement of the market. So in the coming week’s nifty close above the 200 day EMA is the significant event to be watched for. Nifty is also placed at the down ward sloping line drawn from the top of 6357 nifty has just moved above it on Thursday and we have to see whether it sustains there or not. One of the significant events which has taken during the week is that is that the weekly DMI has given a buy signal, it has given a sell signal on 25th January 2008 and you know how nifty has fallen from there. If you see from the low of the bull market in April 2003 DMI has given buy signal five times and this is the sixth time and every time it has given a buy signal nifty bulls have dominated the scene and nifty has risen on an average 800 to 1200 points highest being 2000 points and the lowest being 600 points so considering this we can safely assume that nifty has all the possible chances of raising at-least 600 points from the current levels which give an indication that we might see 4000 in the coming months. With regard to the time periods and the points of rise I will try to furnish the same in the next weeks update.
Another point to be noted is that nifty has been raising continue sly raising for last 5 weeks and 5 is a Fibonacci and we have fair chances of nifty correcting from the current levels, if nifty does not correct then we can see nifty raising continuously for another two weeks means upto first week of may. Nifty has also formed a doji star on daily charts indicating that bears have just finding strength and we might see nifty correcting from the current levels to 3200 to 3100 levels which would be a healthy correction and give necessary fuel to bulls for further rise.
Another point to be noted is that 20 day EMA has moved above the 50 day EMA and is just trying to move above the 100 day EMA Signifying that bulls are back into the business and will try to take nifty further up.
Nifty is in extremely over bought zone in the intraday hourly chart and is showing –ve divergence for nearly two to three days indicating that correction is round the corner. Correction if which happens should be taken as an opportunity to go long as we might see nifty moving up in a big way in the coming weeks to months.
So technically it appears that better days for bulls are coming.
As indicated in last weeks update nifty has continued its upward journey. Nifty has decisively broken the 3240 barrier during the week without any hitch. It has been indicated in the last weeks update that this time the bulls are having strength and nifty will easily go past the barrier of 3240 and nifty has done the same. Nifty is precariously placed near the 200 day EMA which is at 3401. Nifty just touched it and reversed from those levels. Any body who is short on the markets can continue to hold the same till 3401 is taken out. If 200 day EMA is taken out the long-term bulls will come to the market which will further fuel the upward movement of the market. So in the coming week’s nifty close above the 200 day EMA is the significant event to be watched for. Nifty is also placed at the down ward sloping line drawn from the top of 6357 nifty has just moved above it on Thursday and we have to see whether it sustains there or not. One of the significant events which has taken during the week is that is that the weekly DMI has given a buy signal, it has given a sell signal on 25th January 2008 and you know how nifty has fallen from there. If you see from the low of the bull market in April 2003 DMI has given buy signal five times and this is the sixth time and every time it has given a buy signal nifty bulls have dominated the scene and nifty has risen on an average 800 to 1200 points highest being 2000 points and the lowest being 600 points so considering this we can safely assume that nifty has all the possible chances of raising at-least 600 points from the current levels which give an indication that we might see 4000 in the coming months. With regard to the time periods and the points of rise I will try to furnish the same in the next weeks update.
Another point to be noted is that nifty has been raising continue sly raising for last 5 weeks and 5 is a Fibonacci and we have fair chances of nifty correcting from the current levels, if nifty does not correct then we can see nifty raising continuously for another two weeks means upto first week of may. Nifty has also formed a doji star on daily charts indicating that bears have just finding strength and we might see nifty correcting from the current levels to 3200 to 3100 levels which would be a healthy correction and give necessary fuel to bulls for further rise.
Another point to be noted is that 20 day EMA has moved above the 50 day EMA and is just trying to move above the 100 day EMA Signifying that bulls are back into the business and will try to take nifty further up.
Nifty is in extremely over bought zone in the intraday hourly chart and is showing –ve divergence for nearly two to three days indicating that correction is round the corner. Correction if which happens should be taken as an opportunity to go long as we might see nifty moving up in a big way in the coming weeks to months.
So technically it appears that better days for bulls are coming.
Elliotte wave Analysis: As per Elliotte wave there is nothing new to be indicated what has been indicated in last weeks update holds well as of now. We will update it when ever significant thing happens.
Directional Momentum index
As indicated in my last weeks update bulls have taken firm grip on the market. DMI has moved from 29 to 32.79 levels indicating that bulls have gained upper hand. +D1 line is above –D1 line and is still rising indicating that bulls are slowly and steadily coming into the market and taking control of the market.
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move above the 3158 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way up as there is tremendous buying coming whenever it falls. If NF goes below 3158 it has chances of moving towards 2951 and there after 2915 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – buy ( generated at 3140)
Reversal Value - 3158.
Banknifty
Current Price - 4591(future)
Current Trend – buy
Reversal Value - 4257
It appears the Bankek has formidable support at 4500 any move below 4500 should be taken as an opportunity to short bankek with stop loss at 4550/-
Individual stocks:
IDBI Bank: Rs.55
Tehnically speaking it appears that this is one of the best stocks to buy at this price with very limited down side technically. IDBI has broken out of a three fan principle which has been shown in the above chart. Generally on break out from the three fan principle implies that the stock has reversed trend and it has all the fair chances of making a new high. At this time it appears to be too long( or a foolish) target but technically speaking it should achieve that level. The all time high is around 180 level so nearly 300% rise from the current levels. So just grab the stock with a stop loss at 45/-.
ICSA – Rs.98/-
ICSA has broken out of the eight months trend line and the break was on very very high volumes suggesting that genuing buying has gone into the stock and that upsides for the stock are not ruled out. It is an fundamentally good stock and is technically also showing strength indication that genuine buying has gone into the stock and it might move up from current levels towards 150 and 200. Stop loss of Rs. 80/-
This is one of the fundamentally good stocks which is showing tremendous strength at current levels. Off late volumes has also increase significantly and it has move above the 20/50 and 100 day EMA and is just place above 100 day EMA. It moved above 20 and 50 day EMA only during the aug and sep the then fell viciously . but this time it appears to be different from the last one and it appears that the stock appears to be on a course up as it have started to move up after five months of consolidation. The next resistance appers to be at 320 and there after 500 levels. Stop loss: 175/-Resistances: 3400/3500
Supports: 3300/3250/3150/3100/3000
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 12th-April-09, Time 9.00 PM IST
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Nifty Update for the week ended 4th April 2009
Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 5th April, 2009.
As indicated in my last weeks update nifty first corrected during the beginning of the week and then made a very smart recovery on the last two days of the week to take nifty above the 3200 levels and close above it. Nifty finally closed at 3211 a rise of 100 points from the last weeks close. This week close is the highest close of nifty after the month of October 2008 indicating the bulls have gained upper hand in the current scenario. So the strategy that should be adopted now is “buying on dips”. But 3240 has acted as a formidable resistance for the five to sixth months it attempted two times and failed during those attempts. But it closed above 3200 and also it is consistently staying above 100 day EMA for nearly one week implies that the bulls are stronger this time and I may not be surprised if 3240 is taken out during on week to 10 days. Currently 100 day EMA acts as a formidable support level (to this time it has acted as a support line) any breach of the same is not a good indication for bulls as bears will gain upper hand on breach of the same. Nifty is still in the raising channel indicating in my last week update the support for the raising channel is at 3100 and resistance is at 3300 levels. In the intra day charts nifty appears to be in an extremely over bought zone, this is being indicated by the technical indicators giving an indication that nifty might correct slightly during the beginning of the week and there after wage a attempt at the 200 day EMA which is placed around 3400. So any correction if that happens during the week should be taken as an opportunity to go long, till 3000 is violated.
As indicated in my last weeks update nifty first corrected during the beginning of the week and then made a very smart recovery on the last two days of the week to take nifty above the 3200 levels and close above it. Nifty finally closed at 3211 a rise of 100 points from the last weeks close. This week close is the highest close of nifty after the month of October 2008 indicating the bulls have gained upper hand in the current scenario. So the strategy that should be adopted now is “buying on dips”. But 3240 has acted as a formidable resistance for the five to sixth months it attempted two times and failed during those attempts. But it closed above 3200 and also it is consistently staying above 100 day EMA for nearly one week implies that the bulls are stronger this time and I may not be surprised if 3240 is taken out during on week to 10 days. Currently 100 day EMA acts as a formidable support level (to this time it has acted as a support line) any breach of the same is not a good indication for bulls as bears will gain upper hand on breach of the same. Nifty is still in the raising channel indicating in my last week update the support for the raising channel is at 3100 and resistance is at 3300 levels. In the intra day charts nifty appears to be in an extremely over bought zone, this is being indicated by the technical indicators giving an indication that nifty might correct slightly during the beginning of the week and there after wage a attempt at the 200 day EMA which is placed around 3400. So any correction if that happens during the week should be taken as an opportunity to go long, till 3000 is violated.
I have indicated in my last weeks update that the sloping resistance level has to be broken to give strength to bulls and the first resistance level is broken and the second is placed at 3400 where also 200 day EMA is also present so the 3400 is going to be a formidable resistance level. Any breach of the same on upper side will be very good news to the ears of bulls as bulls will gain further strength and all the long term investors who invest on the basis of 200 day EMA who have been in sidelines till not will also come to the market which will fuel the further rise in the market.
Elliotte wave analysis:
As per my analysis of the wave pattern it appears that the five wave down wave pattern has been completed with 3rd elongated and the fifth failure. The fifty wave is a failure as it did not go below the low of the 3rd wave i.e 2225. The fifth wave failure suggests that there should be a strong counter trend and the fifth wave i.e “wave-E” should be retraced in half the amount of time required to form the same. It took 10 weeks for formation of the fifth wave and four weeks to go above it signifying that we might be in a strong counter trend in the market.
It may be noted that market started to fall from January and the current rise started from 2539 is from the middle of March, so it took nearly 13 months for the wave-1 of larger wave to complete. It may be noted that 13 is a Fibonacci and the current rise appears to be genuine as the low of the market was formed in after 13 months. So considering this it appears that we might be in the formation of wave-2 which has chances of lasting at least 3 to five months and will have a minimum target of 3406 and if it is violated the we have chances seeing 3984 and if it is taken out nest target comes to 4441.
Considering this it appears that this is time to made shopping as good quality stocks which have been at very attractive valuations should be bought as we might get at around 50% return on the same.
It may be noted that this holds good till market holds above the 100 day EMA if it is violated then we have to no other alternative but to short the market.
Directional Momentum index
As indicated in my last weeks update bulls have taken firm grip on the market. DMI has moved from 28 to 29.53 levels indicating that bulls have gained upper hand. +D1 line is above –D1 line and is still raising indicating that bulls are slowly and steadily coming into the market and taking control of the market.
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 2951 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 2951 will pave way for 2765 The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 2765.
Individual stocks:
Bharat Forge- Rs.108/-
One of the leading player in forging industry has formed a very very bullish rounded bottom over a period of five to six months and appears to have just started to move up the rounded bottom signifies that worst may be over for the stock and the stock may be heading for higher targets in immediate target comes to around 150 and if take our none other that 250. The stock is looking strongest technically after September 2006. The stock has moved above the 100 day EMA and also the 20 day EMA has moved above the 50 day EMA and also DMI has crossed above 20 after a bullish crossover,signifying that bullish undertones are back in the stock and the higher targets are going to be achieved so appears to be a technically and fundamentally good stock. Stop loss Rs.90/-
Hind Dorr Oliver:Rs.40/-
HDOL one of the infrastructure developer has formed an excellent inverse heads and shoulders pattern signifying that worst may be over for the stock and the stock is expected to move up from current levels. The minimum target for H&S break out comes to around Rs.60 which is nearly 50% from the current levels. It may be noted that volumes are heavy over last one to two months indicating that some good amount of informed buying is going into the stock. So technically a good stock to buy at these levels. And also 20 day EMA has moved above the 50 day EMA signifying that the stock is going into the hands of bulls. The stock is looking strongest after the January 2008 fall.Stop loss Rs.35
Resistances: 3250/3400
Supports: 3100/3000/2850/2757/2525
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 5th-April-09, Time 6.00 PM IST
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Nifty Swing Trade for the 2nd April 2009
Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in sell mode and the trend will reverse on move above the 3072 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way to 2951 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2727. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – Sell ( sell generated at 3108)
Reversal Value - 3072.
Bankex
As per two day swing trade currently it is in sell mode and the trend will reverse on move above the 3072 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way to 2951 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2727. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – Sell ( sell generated at 3108)
Reversal Value - 3072.
Bankex
Current Price - 4185(future)
Current Trend – Sell (reversed to sell at 4165)
Reversal Value - 4203
It may be noted that nifty has moved above the 100 Day EMA yesterday and remained there today also and moved up from there indicating the bulls are gaining upper hand.
Current Trend – Sell (reversed to sell at 4165)
Reversal Value - 4203
It may be noted that nifty has moved above the 100 Day EMA yesterday and remained there today also and moved up from there indicating the bulls are gaining upper hand.
BEML has given a break out above 400 and is not placed at 424 it also moved above 100 day EMA today only with volumes indicating that we may be in for further upsides in the comming weeks. As per the technical break out nifty should move towards atleast 700 in the comming weeks as there is no other resistance levels in between so we have chances of 50% upsides from the current level.
M.Sri Mahidar
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)