DXC USD index

 DXC USD index has risen very fast in 10 weeks indicating the change in trend. the fall from 85 to 79 levels took 44 weeks and the same was retraced in 21 weeks indicating that the trend might have reversed and it confirms that doller is expected to strengthen against other currencies. it has also broken above the trend line from November 2005 a nine year trend line which is generally a signal for trend change. so we have to see now how it behaves. The time factors is confirming that we might see it moving upwards to first 90, then 96 and 102 levels. DXC has moved above 200 day EMA, and 200 week EMA and not its nearing 200 month EMA at 87. 200 month EMA has not been taken out in last 11 years any break out above 87 has all chances of triggering a bull run which could easily take it to 100 levels. So in coming weeks we can expect strength in USD against all currencies.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

On friday we bought forward one short with SAR at 15515. on Friday it was gap up but below our SAR so SAR remains as it is. Later in the day BNF moved above SAR forcing us to go long closing our short position. We have made a profit of 525 points in mean time. We went long on Friday the  26th Sep. on Monday and today the market did not do any thing and we also did not do any thing even not even shifting SAR. Today at EOD we carried forwards on long with SAR at 15387.

In september all closed positions resulted in total net gain of 728 points.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 27^th September 2014

This week nifty opened on slightly positive note and there after bears dominated the market for three days (thanks to supreme court ruling on coal blocks) post which on Friday bulls regained some ground thanks to S&P upgrading. Nifty opened at 8084 made a high of 8159 made a low of 7841 and finally closed at 7968. For the current week it has made a red candle indicating that bears have somewhat gained upper hand during the week. During this week nifty has move below 20 day EMA took support at 50 day EMA(7838) and started to move up. For last three days it has closed below 20 day EMA which indicates that bears are trying hard to take the market down. Market is not appears to be oscillating between 20 day EMA (8011) and 50 day EMA(7838). So as of not 50 day EMA is acting as support and 20 day EMA is providing resistance. We have to see whether nifty would successfully move above 20 day EMA which it has done in the past whenever it moved below it. if it 20 day EMA offers resistance the it would again turn towards the 50 day EMA which if taken out has all chances of nifty moving towards 100 day EMA at 7616. So we have to keep a close watch at all these levels as selling pressure might come as resistance and buying pressure might be coming at the support levels, which might give buying and selling opportunities to the traders. 

 

One bearish pattern which was confirmed during the current week was the Wolf wave formation. it has formed and last week it has broken below the 1-3 trend line moved above it and this week it has again moved above it and again moved below it and closed below it which confirms the pattern. Nifty has to move above the 1-3 trend line indicated by green arrow in the above chart and if not we have all the possible chances of nifty moving towards the red arrow which happens to be around 7150 levels. So till it’s below the neck line we can expect the market to slowly drift towards the red arrow. We have to see what happens in the coming week.

 

Elliott wave analysis:

I have indicated that nifty has support at 7855 and this week nifty has just taken support at that levels and bounced with vengeance. With this min retracement has completed. It this is taken out then we have all possible chances of it moving towards 7540 which the low of wave-2. If now we can assume that on Friday the wave-2 of wave-3 of larger wave-5 has completed and we might head towards 8400-500 levels. Still it is not confirmed we have to wait for confirmation in the coming weeks.

  

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.
28th September 2014 time:16.50 IST

We bought forward on short with SAR at 15900. on 25th BNF opened flat and there after stated to fall continually. During the entire day we have only three green candles only which indicates bearishness whole through the day. To day we need not do any thing but shift SAR to the lower as the market is slowly moving down. As it was settlement day for Sep series we have to close our current months position and take short position in the next month series. So we carried forwards the oct series short with SAR at 15490. You can see the beauty of the system as the market trends we get good profits.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Monday we bought forward one long with SAR at 16032. It opened gap down below our SAR. So the rule says that we have to wait for the first 15 minute bar to complete and SAR to be placed at the low of the bar. We have done accordingly but SAR was not hit as later in the day it formed a pivot and move above the previous high prompting us to shift our sar to 16040.
At EOD we have carried forward on long with SAR at 16040.

On Tuesday we bought forward one long with SAR at 16040. market opened flat but started to slowly drift down wards and finally moved below our SAR prompting to shift our position to short with SAR at days high. In the long transaction which was closed on tuesday we made a profit of 68 points. later in the day the market moved down and closed at the low of the day. 

Today we bought forward one short and to day also market started to drift down wards but in the mean time formed a pivot high which prompted to shift our SAR lower. BNF started to drift lower through out the day and closed at the virtually low of the day. At EOD we carried forward one short with SAR at 15900( including buffer of 23 points)

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is friend.

Petronet Lng-201,

Petronet LNG has made an all time high today, which is a good indication to buy. It has made an all time high after a gap of 2 years and also volumes are increasing indicating that interest is coming into the stock after some time. We can assume that the stock has all chances of moving up from current levels. Stop loss - Rs.165/-

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

Gold in USD terms is an interesting one at this point of time. The above is the monthly chart of gold from the lows of 2001. Gold has broken below the trend line of 13 years( a fibonacci) which is a huge sign of weakness in gold and we can expect a healthy down fall in gold in coming weeks or months unless and other wise gold rises above trend line. The 100 month EMA is at 1173 which has been offering support to gold for last 15 months this time also in might offer the same but as this is the third attempt we can expect it to be taken out. Any break of same may prove to be catastrophe for gold as it has all possible chances of moving below USD1000 so we have to keep a close watch on the same. So brace for bear activity in Gold.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

 

All might be wondering, when i would be giving the rules of the flow technique. From this week onwards i would furnish the rules under the label flow rules.
First and fore most is the identification of pivot highs(PH) and Pivot Lows(PL), once this is perfected nearly 60-70% of the learning would be over. This has to be mastered if we have to master the flow.

One point to be note is that there would be alternation between Pivot highs and lows. Pivot high would follow pivot low and and vice versa. But there would be now two consecutive PHs or PLs 

Rules for identification of Pivots High

1. When the subsequent bar moves below the low of the previous bar - then we have to identify the pivot high.
2. Pivot High(PH) would be the highest point after the pivot low. 

Rules for identification of Pivots Lows

1. When the subsequent bar moves above the high of the previous bar - then we have to identify the pivot Low.
2. Pivot Low (PL) would be the lowest point after the pivot low. 

i have explained the same in the chart below.

for clarification of same you can post in comments which i would reply.

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

For Friday we have bought forward on long with SAR at 16035. The bnf opened on weak note and and continued to move down and recovered slightly at the end indicating indecisiveness of the market in short term. As no new high was made we did not do any thing but just watching the market. Carried forward on long with SAR at 16035.

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 19^th September 2014

During the week there appears to be a tough fight between bulls and bears in first two days bears were in control and next three days the bulls were in control. During the wee Nifty opened at 8070 made a low of 7925 and thereafter recovered with vengeance and made a high or 8160 and closed at 8121. For the week the index closed with green colour indicating that the close is higher that open and also this week’s close is higher than that of the last weeks indicating the bulls are still in control of the market as of now. The weekly candle has long tail and has formed what appears to be a hammer indicating that the bears have tried hard to take the market down but bulls have give a tough fight and were successful in taking the market up. So till the low of 7925 is violated in the coming week we can see market drifting up only. So till that happens we can expect the market to slowly and steadily inch upwards.

As far as Elliott wave is concerned nifty did not go below the low of the 4^th wave at 7855 which I have indicated in my last weeks up date. This indicates strength of the bulls. This week also we have to see whether this would be violated if this is taken out nifty has all the chances of moving towards 7540  but as of now it appears far off. But nothing can be ruled out. As of now it appears that we might have completed wave-1 and wave-2 of wave – 3 of wave-5 of larger wave-3. It is an assumption as of now the movement in the coming week has the possible chances of altering the structure. Till then we have to make this assumption. If wave-2 has completed at 7925 then we can easily see new high in the coming weeks easily. So we have to wait and watch in the coming weeks.

 Now we look at the probable targets as per elliott assuming that the wave-2 has ended at 7925. Wave -1 is of length 640 points so we can safely assume that the wave-3 would at-least be equal to that wave so we have a target of min 640 points from 7925 giving a target of 8565. But we have to wait and see whether the structure assumed is correct or not let the market give the direction. As the market moves the wave structure also evolves and suitable chances would be made to align with the wave structure.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

September 21, 2014 5:25 PM

Allahabad Bank-125/-

Allahabad bank has moved above 200 week EMA in may june 2014 and there after corrected for three months and came down and move below 200 week EMA and now moved above it indicating strength of the bulls. Its a perfect technical set up and has chances of making a new 52 week high in weeks to come. So it becomes a buy with Stop loss at 110. any close below 110 would indicated weakness on weekly charts.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

We carried forward one long with SAR at 1603Today BNF opened on a weak below yesterdays low prompting us to shift SAR to 15972. There after it moved above SAR Prompting us to reverse our positions to long with SAR at todays low. There after it started to move up and formed Pivot Low prompting us to shift SAR to 16035. BNF closed virtually at the days high indicating the strength of the bulls. We carried forward on long with SAR at 16035.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Yesterday we carried forwards on long with SAR at 16087(16112-23(filter)). to day market opened flat but after wards it started to fall steeply and hit our SAR we reversed our position to short as the SAR was hit. There after the market fell very sharply and closed at the low of the day indicating weakness of the market. Today i.e on 17th the market opened with gap up but it again moved below the yesterdays low prompting us to shift our SAR to pivot high formed today PH is at 15980 so SAR is at 16005 after buffer of 23 points. Now we have to see whether today the PH would be taken out or not. The the last long transaction there was a loss of 133 points.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Geometric-Rs.157/-

Geometri has made a new all time high in May 2014 and is maintaining, above it for last four months, and has started to move up now. Also notice the volumes which indicating that the accumulation has been going into the stock at all time high which is a positive for the stock and as it has started to move up now we can expect the stock to make a healthy up move in coming weeks and stop loss should be below the low of the consolidation at around 120 levels.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

CNX-PSUBANK- 3732

CNXPSU bank has moved above 200 week EMA in May and stayed above is for last 22 weeks its longest period for which it has stayed above it. previous in 2012 and 2013 it stayed above it for 14 and 13 weeks respectively and this time it is above it for far more time than the previous occasions, thus indicating the strength of bull in PSU stocks, this is clearly indicating that we might see a good movement in PSU banks in coming weeks, any move below 3350 would indicate reversal of the same. So till its above 3350 we can see good healthy movements in PSU stocks. 

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

CANARA BANK - Rs.414

The above chart is of Canara bank weekly chart. You can clearly see that CB has moved above 200 week EMA in may then came down and exactly taken support at it and started to move up. This is a perfect technical support and we can expect the stock to make a new 52 week high which is nearly 20% from current levels. Now the margin of safety is also high at below 200 week EMA. Stop Loss should be at daily close below 365/-

M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

We have today carried forward one long taken on 9th of September 2014 with SAR at 16112. Today BNF opened on a weak note gap down, and later in the afternoon it started to move up and touched 16300 levels and during last one hour it collapsed and closed at around 16214. Today also no action SAR also remained as it is. in the present case we would shift SAR only on move above 16363 only till that time SAR remains at 16112. Today end we have carried one long with SAR at 16112. This is the beauty of the system as we need not do any thing during the side ways movement. You can see we have taken long on 9th at the end of the day and till not we are still carrying the same no trades in all these days. You might be wondering whether all these are paper trades or actual trades are being made. i am actually taking the position when ever its indicated whether up or down. For last four days i am carrying forward my position just sitting idle during market hours but i know that when ever the move comes i would be in that direction and chances of making handsome gains.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 12^th September 2014

I am writing this weekly update after nearly one month’s time. Nothing has happened during last one month on nothing has happened as far as elliotte wave point of view. For the week nifty opened with gap up moved up slowly and then started to fall and ended up slightly up compared to last week. Nifty has been maintaining above 20 day EMA for last so many months from march onwards, in the mean time it has found support on it for two times and then move up, so till it maintains above 20 day EMA we can expect it to continue to move up slowly and steadily. 20 day EMA is at 8000 and 50 day EMA is at 7776 so these are the two levels to be closely watched as any correction in nifty is going to take support at these levels. if these are taken out then we can expect a healthy correction. But till that happens we can expect the market to move steadily upwards.

Till now in this uptrend, the retracement have been taking longer time than the rise, till this phenomenon is continued we can expect the market to make a steady up move. If that trend is reversed then we can expect the uptrend is over, till now it has not happened in last six months, once that happens the same can would be reported in our weekly update till that happens we can safely assume that uptrend is intact.

Elliott Wave Analysis:

I have been pointing out that nifty is moving in a corrective wave and we are in the up move in the corrective wave. The details working from the low of October 2008 is given in the following charts.

The above chart is from October 2008 to till date. As per my calculation we have completed wave –A which took 200 day from January 2008 to October 2008 and from there onwards we stated to form wave-B and we are still in formation of wave-B only. Wave-A of wave-B was from October 2009 to October 2010 and wave-B of wave-B is from October 2010 to Dec 2011 and we are in wave-C of wave-B from then onwards till date. We have completed wave-A and wave-B of larger wave-B and we are in formation of wave-C of wave-B from low of December 2011 onwards. Wave-C is splitting into its components and we have completed wave-1 and wave-2 and we are in formation of wave-3 of wave-C of larger wave-B. It is forming more complicated wave structure and now splitting into its components.

The details breakup of the wave-B is indicated by arrow in the above chart-1 is give below:

It can be seen that the wave-C of overall wave-B is given in the chart-2 above it can be seen that the wave-C is splitting into its components i.e. into 5 waves the 5 waves are being shown in blue colour in the above chart. It can be clearly seen that the wave-1 and wave -2 have completed and we are not in formation of wave-3 of wave-C of larger wave-B. It can also be seen in the above chart that wave-1,2,3,5 of wave-3 have completed and we seems to have started the wave-5 of wav-3 of wave-C of larger wave-B. The waves break up of wave-3 to 5 is given in the chart 3  below.

The break up of wave-3 is given in the above chart. It can be seen that we have completed wave-4 in July 2014 and we are still in completion of the same. It seems that we are in wave-5 of the wave-3 and it seems that we have completed wave-1 and 2 of wave-5 and we are in formation of wave-3 of wave-5. It appears that we might have completed wave-1 of wave-5 and we are forming wave-2 of wave-5 after which wave-3 would start so we can expect the market to move up on completion of wave-2 as per this we might not see nifty going below 8049 and maximum 7855( which is doubtful). So we can expect a slight sideways movement post which we can expect it to make an up move. The wave-1 was of length 468 points so if the wave-3 extends the we can expect it to be of length 758 points from the low of wave-1 which gives a target of 8619. Wave-3 would be generally be more that the wave-1 so it would be at-least 470 points means 8332. Once the wave-3 of higher wave-3 is completed we can expect the market to correct wave-4 and then the wave-5 would start post which market would culminate and we can start an down move which would be longer that the corrections which we have seen in recent 3-4 years. So it seems there is some time till the market tops and we have scope for up-move in the markets. This interpretation is as per now and as it changes or progress the relevant medications to the wave structure would be worked out and updated in our weekly updates.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

September 14, 2014 6:18 PM

Yesterday i did not post as i was unwell. Yesterday and today we carried forward on long at 16220. yesterday it was gap down opening above our SAR so the rule says that SAR remains as it is BNF moved below our SAR but did not go below the filter which we use, so we continued with our positions but shifted our SAR to yesterdays low. Today it opened on a positive note and there after it fell every sharply but maintained above our SAR, so during last two days we did not do any thing except shifting our SAR. Today we carried our one long with SAR at 16112 minus filter of 23.

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.