Nifty seems to have broken the trend line from last four months(blue line) but it has not support at the three months trend line(pink line) which happens to be at 6100. if nifty moves past the 6100 then we can expect a bigger correction and in this case the minimum correction should be around 5777 and it can extend up to 5624. but if it moves below  5950 then the larger picture would unfold which is indicated in the chart below which i have shown in last weeks update.

if nifty break below the 5950 then it would break the 5 year trend line indicated in chart above(red line) in such case the correction can be more severe that anticipated. But now we would stick to current one only and see if it moved past the targets give above. if the 5 year trend line is taken out then we would work out accordingly and the new targets would be arrived at.

M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Freind.

ACC which was in a bull run for last five years from the end of 2008 onwards and currently seems to have turned down. So the bears have become active in the stock. ACC has broken the five year trend line(blue Line) subsequent to that it has tried to move above it and failed in its two attempts. and now you can see it is struggling to moved above the sloping resistance line(pink line) so as of now appears that bears have upper hand in ACC which can head towards 800 levels(61.8% level) in the months to come so the stock can fall nearly 25% from current levels.

M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.

bank nifty has broken the support line in july 13, unlike nifty which has still not broken the trend line there is a good amount of divergence in these two charts. Bank nifty has nearly 25% weightage in nifty so we can see nifty breaking the support line sooner or later. In case of bank nifty it has broken the support line below down and not attempting to conquer the fall.Time wise it has taken 15 weeks to fall from 13200 levels to 8400 levels and it is currently in 16th week of retracement which is more time than fall indicating that the rise is one of corrective nature and not impulsive.So it has all chances of facing resistance blue line which happens to be around 12450 levels. if it fails to move above this levels we can see it falling towards its low of 8400 so we have to keep a watch on this.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend.

It can be seen in the chart that nifty is moving in a range from December 2011 onwards. it is not 104 weeks till now and we are still in the box only. between the two trend lines. so now we should see either nifty making a new high and moved down to the lower trend line or we can see it moving down now only. if Nifty breaks 6120 level then we can see it drifting towards lower trend line which at present is around 5500 level it would be a huge fall in the current scenario. So as of now in medium term we might see 5500 as a formidable support. So wait and watch for the market to give the clue.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend.

nifty has made an all time high today followed by all time closing high. So are we in a bull run or have started a new bull run, it appears to be certainly not. We are in a short term bull run and till the market confirms the reversal we have to be bullish what ever the studies suggests. the time periods donot indicate a bull run as the retracement time is far more than the fall to justify the bull run as per elliott. the current move from November middle onwards is largely based on gap up openings and not more there have been four gap up openings three have been big gaps and the last two have been nearly 100 points above. The big red candle of today is indicating that the bulls might have liquidated their position at-least for the time being.it has been following by closing at the lowest point of the day which indicates that we might have formed an exhausion gap and we have chances of nifty moving down towards the gap opening before any attempts are made to made to move up. The last candle is indicating that we might be in for surprise on down side for market. is something happening in US tonight wait and watch.

M.Sri Mahidar.
Trend is Friend.

tata motors is in an uptrend for last one month so what does the chart indicate. it has formed a very power ful WW pattern which is bearish indication atleast for short term. the pattern has been formed over a period of last one and half year which should be a power indicator for reversal.remember patience is a virtue.

M.Sri Mahidar

BHEL off late has been moving up so we look technicals. It indicates better times for it especially for short term.
M.Sri Mahidar

 

Rupee is behaving as has been indicated nearly two years back, at that time the frist target was give as 57.12 and then 60 and 64 now we have already acheived the same in 2011 and now we are at nearly 60 and no doubt it would touch around 65. at that time nobody might have beleived but now we are getting calls of 62 atleast and we have alls chances of surprassing the same. its only a matter of time as to when we  would acheive the same. So after some brief correction we migh again move up to acheive the ultimate target of above Rs.65.

nifty weekly update

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 8^th June 2013

Nifty during the week has been closing lower on each day of the week which is not a good news for the bulls. Nifty has moved blow the 50 day EMA and now it is exactly at 100 day EMA. We have to see whether this would offer support or not if it is taken out we have next important support at 200 day EMA which happens to be around 5750.

In previous update I have mentioned that nifty has bank nifty have completed on monthly chart demark sell set up over the period of 5 years and which is a bearish signal and if nifty  moves below the 13^th candle low of 5930 then we have all chances of confirming the pattern and for bank nifty its 11800. For nifty this weeks close has confirmed the same and for BNF its still far away.

On weekly chart nifty has fallen for continues three weeks which is a bearish signal but still the directional momentum indicator is not giving strength to the bears its moving down indicating that it lacks strength, still confirmation from the DMI comes we would not be having so much down side. So bears might return any time during this period. So even though the trend is moving down we still wait for confirmation from the market.

Surprisingly markets have memory, puzzled you might be. If you apply time series analysis we can easily arrive at the probable trend and also how many weeks or days I would last. If you see the chart of bank nifty from 2008 to till now the time gap between each successive tops ( one top to next top) is average around 17 to 21 weeks with one or two exceptions. And the time gap between each successive bottoms( between one bottom to another bottom is 14 to 17 weeks with one or two exceptions in between. And if you apply this currently the time gap of 18 weeks have completed from its previous top at 12975( on 18^th Jan 2013) so we should now expect the market to correct from current levels and the time series tells that we have some long time left for it to form bottom. I have indicated earlier that the time gap between each successive bottom is 14 to 17 weeks. Considering this we have completed 8 weeks from bottom of 10904 so we have now nearly 6 to 8 weeks left for the market to make a new bottom so we have all chances of market moving down or bottom is nearly 6 to 8 weeks away so we can surely expect the market to move down. So applying the time series analysis can be such an handy, and now we can easily say the markets have memory.   

The chart below shows the time series analysis from April 2008 till now and you can easily see the time series analysis which has been done by me and at each time it easily gives clues at exact timings and this can be extremely usefull  in identifying the turns. Whenever exceptions occur the market moves wildly so market gives clues and we should be able to just identify them.

The second chart also indicates that market has memory. It can be seen that market reacts exactly at the trend lines it can be seen that nifty has been reversing whenever it went near the upper trend line and at the same time it reacts whenever it comes near the lower trend line. Currently lower trend line is at around 5600 levels so we can expect the market to moves down to be in conformity with the trend line technique and also the time series analysis.

M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend
Celebrate Life
Sunday 9th June 2013 19.55 IST





 

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 11^th May 2013

All of you might be wondering that I am a perennial bear, as I have been projecting the bear phase from long. But that is not the case I have been constantly saying that whatever might be the case the price is the king and the price as per chart is indicating the upside for the market and it has been making highs. As has been pointed out in the last weeks update, I have indicated that as per the time lines which we apply while arriving at the trend whether up or down are pointing not a good story for the bulls in medium term as the retracement time is more that the time it has taken to fall. This is clearly pointing out that even though the market is moving up it does not have strength as it is taking more time to retrace the fall. All this is pointing out towards a imminent fall which would formalize over the period of time. When it would take place only market would indicated but the final fall has to come and when it comes it should be more devastating than that we have seen in recent times. We have to wait patiently for that. Till that time as I always point out what ever be the indication of the market price is the king and it would always enable to be with the market either up or down. As of now it is pointing towards moving up and is moving up so we have to be with that even though the price patterns are indicating that we might be nearing the top so till the market reverses we have to be long with tight stop loss.

Today I would be indicting or explaining the Demark indicator developed by the Thomas indicator, it is on of the powerful pattern as it takes into account only the price only and not any other. its not like any other indicator, it is not indicated or derived from the price it is price only. there are some sequence of prices and some rules for the same and when the price matures it clearly indicates reversal. But in this case also we have to wait for the price to reverse and then take reverse position.

As per this indicator we have completed TD sell set up meaning that we are in for a sell signal and we have clearly completed that pattern both in Bank nifty and also nifty. Whenever there is co-relation between these two indicators that we can hope for a powerful reversal. The patterns have been completed in monthly charts over a period of 5 year which would be a powerful signal for the market. As its spread over five years I am sure that we are somewhere near major top and when ever it reverses we can hope for a very devastating fall which would take all the market participants by surprise I am pointing towards a medium term trend not the immediate trend. So brace for market to fall over period of six to 12 months. And once that happens we can expect a powerful bull market which should last for years to come.

The first chart is that of nifty and the second chart is that of bank nifty. Both these indicators have completed the pattern and now once they close below the 13^th bar we can hope for a reversal and expect the market to go down very fast.  Banks nifty should move below 11800 and nifty should move below 5930 then only the pattern would confirm the reversal till that time we have to be either long or stay away from the market. In nifty we can place stop loss order at 6200 and bank-nifty at 13200. As the patterns have formed over a period of 5 years I am giving weightage to the pattern. Even on daily basis I have applied that same for last one year and every time I have benefited a lot and only its failed for one time and in that stop loss was taken out and saved my capital.

 

 

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend
Celebrate Life
Sunday 12^th May 2013 time 11.53

nifty weekly update for 28th April 2013

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 27^th April 2012

I am writing this weekly update after a long time, as I have myself decided to stay away from the market updates and now I have decided to follow the market.

During the period which I was away from the market (I was closely following the same) nothing much seems to have happened market is nearly as the same levels as on that time. During the week which was truncated week the market opened on a strong note and started to moved up and continued to move up. This week was also the derivatives settlement weak, so in the coming weak we might see a move but the coming weak also have big event of RBI credit policy and market might not do much till that event happens. But we have to discuss technical right.

Now the question comes whether the up move from the January 2012 is a bull market or a up move in the bear market. that market has taken 59 weeks from the high of 6335 in November 2012 to the December 2011 low of 4531. From there on the market is moving in a up move and currently it has completed 70 weeks and would be entering 71 weeks and we are nearly 10% from the top so the retracement( up move) has taken 20% more that the fall and we are still far away from the high. So considering this the up move cannot be considered as a bull market up move. To be a bull market the last was should be retraced in 50-60% of the time to be power full even if its just equal it better but currently the time period is far more that that is comfortable for the bulls. So when ever the down move comes it would be very violent.  Will that happen or not we have to wait and watch. The market is maintaining above 200 day EMA so bulls are still favor of up move of the market and long term investors are still in the market.

  

The above chart is a weekly chart and the fall took 59 weeks and the rise has till now into 71 weeks and we are still far away from the top.

If you apply the longer time frame from the high of January 2008 the market has fallen from January 2008 of 6354 to a low of around 2250 in October 2008 in nearly 43 weeks( or nearly 10 months) and now nearly 4 and half years have completed so we have completed nearly 54 months and till now we are far away from the top and in this period we were not able to move above the high. So we have nearly completed 5 times the time period and still not able to move above the high. So still I can say that we are still not in a bull market all these are uptrends in the bear market and it appears that till the final fall happens we might not be seeing a change is sentiment. The up moves are only a relief rallies.

I have given the time period elements in this weeks update and I would be providing the Elliott wave updates from the next week onwards or during the week.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend
Celebrate Life
Sunday 28^th April 2013 time 20.34