Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Monday, June 28, 2010
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 27th June 2010.
Nifty opened on a very strong note on Monday and there after started to slide for the last four days. During the last four days the bears were active. Nifty virtually closed at the lowest point of the weak, i.e. at the opening price only. Indicating that during the week bulls and bears were equally powerful. On weekly charts it has formed a long tail indicating the strength of the bears during the week. Generally when a long tail is formed at the top it is bearish signal and if it is formed at bottom then it is bullish signal. Till the top of the tail is taken out the bears are active. Nifty is not above all the major EMA i.e. 15, 50 and also 100 day EMAs so we can say with confidence that bulls are active as of now. Now also nifty has failed to go past 5400 decisively so till nifty closes above 5400 on weekly basis bulls cannot be confident and bears would try to push the market down. So still 5400 is elusive for nifty. One of the noticing features of the movement of nifty for last two weeks is that nifty has moved above the last one year trend line which it has broken in the month of may. And currently it is just placed at the trend line. We have to see whether it would be take support or once again are broken. If it is broken then it would be a bearish signal and if not broken then bulls can rejoice. In this regard the coming week is going to be crucial. But on thing to be noted is that till 4850 is held the bulls would be rejoicing at every fall. So 4850 is going to be crucial levels to be watched out.
If you see the time series analysis nifty has fallen for 6 weeks from middle of April to end of May and after that it has been raising for 5 weeks and till now it has not crossed and made a new high. In the coming week i.e. 6th week we have to make a new high or other wise we are still in corrective move. If bull market is to be in tact the recovery should take shorter time than the fall so the coming week is going to be very crucial as it going to tell whether we are sill in bull market or not. But as we go by the time series analysis nifty has been raising for 9 to 10 weeks and falling for 3 to 5 weeks for last one year and the trend was only broken in may when market fell by 6 weeks so we can take 1 week exception. So considering this if time series analysis is to be intact we have to see market rise for 9 weeks so nearly 4 weeks are still left over. So if nifty does not move up for continues nine weeks the it would indicate weakness and we can see further weakness. So the coming week is going to be very crucial as per time series analysis.
It can be seen from the chart below the chart below the nifty has broke the trend line from june in May 2010 and again moved above it in june and now placed nearly at the trend line. Any break of the trend line would be disastrous for the bulls and sustaining above it would be disastrous for bears. In coming one to two weeks we would be knowing who would win the race.
Nifty opened on a very strong note on Monday and there after started to slide for the last four days. During the last four days the bears were active. Nifty virtually closed at the lowest point of the weak, i.e. at the opening price only. Indicating that during the week bulls and bears were equally powerful. On weekly charts it has formed a long tail indicating the strength of the bears during the week. Generally when a long tail is formed at the top it is bearish signal and if it is formed at bottom then it is bullish signal. Till the top of the tail is taken out the bears are active. Nifty is not above all the major EMA i.e. 15, 50 and also 100 day EMAs so we can say with confidence that bulls are active as of now. Now also nifty has failed to go past 5400 decisively so till nifty closes above 5400 on weekly basis bulls cannot be confident and bears would try to push the market down. So still 5400 is elusive for nifty. One of the noticing features of the movement of nifty for last two weeks is that nifty has moved above the last one year trend line which it has broken in the month of may. And currently it is just placed at the trend line. We have to see whether it would be take support or once again are broken. If it is broken then it would be a bearish signal and if not broken then bulls can rejoice. In this regard the coming week is going to be crucial. But on thing to be noted is that till 4850 is held the bulls would be rejoicing at every fall. So 4850 is going to be crucial levels to be watched out.
If you see the time series analysis nifty has fallen for 6 weeks from middle of April to end of May and after that it has been raising for 5 weeks and till now it has not crossed and made a new high. In the coming week i.e. 6th week we have to make a new high or other wise we are still in corrective move. If bull market is to be in tact the recovery should take shorter time than the fall so the coming week is going to be very crucial as it going to tell whether we are sill in bull market or not. But as we go by the time series analysis nifty has been raising for 9 to 10 weeks and falling for 3 to 5 weeks for last one year and the trend was only broken in may when market fell by 6 weeks so we can take 1 week exception. So considering this if time series analysis is to be intact we have to see market rise for 9 weeks so nearly 4 weeks are still left over. So if nifty does not move up for continues nine weeks the it would indicate weakness and we can see further weakness. So the coming week is going to be very crucial as per time series analysis.
It can be seen from the chart below the chart below the nifty has broke the trend line from june in May 2010 and again moved above it in june and now placed nearly at the trend line. Any break of the trend line would be disastrous for the bulls and sustaining above it would be disastrous for bears. In coming one to two weeks we would be knowing who would win the race.
Positives for Nifty:
• Market is above 200 day EMA.
• Market has moved above 15 day, 50 day or 100 day EMA.
• Daily MACD has just given a buy signal
Negatives for nifty:
• Weekly MACD has given sell signal immediately after giving a buy signal indicating extreme weakness in the market.
• All though the rise from 4800 the ADX has been moving down indicating that the up move lacked strength and it might not last long. But wait for the market to confirm.
Elliott wave:
In feb-march I have indicated in my Elliott study that it would be difficult nifty to move above 5415 and 5585 and till now both these have not be violated so I would furnish the alternative structure if these are violated.
Directional Momentum index – (DMI)
Currently +D1 is above –D1 and +D1 has started to just move down and +D1 has started to move up indicating the bears are just finding themselves. It may be noted that during the entire rise from 4800 to 5375 DMI has been moving down indicating that bulls lack strength. While nifty has moved from 4800 to 5375 DMI has moved down from 31 to 20 currently. So unless and other wise DMI moves up bulls would not be able to take the market up.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 27th June 2010, Time 21.00 IST
Trend is friend
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Monday, June 7, 2010
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 5th May 2010.
Nifty moved on a positive note during the entire week and also closed on positive note week on week. Nifty has closed above 5000 for second consecutive week indicating strength of the bulls and now 5000 appear to be formidable and also psychological levels for nifty. As has been indicated by me in my last week’s update nifty has found resistance at 5160, the area between 5160 and 5202 would be the formidable level to be crossed. If nifty fails to go past these levels then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 4700 once again for details please refer section under Elliott wave. One of the noticing features of this week’s movement is that it has moved above 50 and 100 day EMA, which were offering resistance in previous two weeks. The movement above these two EMAs is an indication of short term bullishness in the market and it gives scope for further upside movement. But these MAs are now at 5098 and 5070, means they are very near and we have to see whether they would offer support now if nifty turns down.
Time series analysis: I have been mentioning from the last few weeks in my time series analysis that nifty has been raising for 14 weeks to 10 weeks and has been falling for 5 weeks or 3 weeks. And I have also indicated that any change in time periods would be the first confirmation of the reversal of the trend. This has happened for the first time in March 09 and trend has reversed from bear to bull phase. And the fall of this time has been for 8 weeks which is the largest of any fall in the current up move which is giving a clear indication that the trend might have reversed and we might be heading for further down sides. Nifty has to move below 4675 by the end of next week to indicate the strength of bears. You may be asking question as to why? Because it took 9 weeks for the market to rise from 4675 to 5399 so it should move below it in lesser no of days in order to indicate strength in reverse direction. If nifty fails to move below 4675 this week then we can be sure that bulls have strength and bears have weakned. It has been observed in the previous cases of trend reversal or the time period reversal the markets have risen or fallen for 14 weeks in the first period of time reversal. In January 2008 when market has reversed market has fallen for 14 weeks and in March 2009 when market reversed it has risen for 14 weeks in the first time of reversal. After March 2009 market has for the first time has observed time reversal so whether we would fall for 14 continues weeks this time also we have to wait and watch.
Nifty moved on a positive note during the entire week and also closed on positive note week on week. Nifty has closed above 5000 for second consecutive week indicating strength of the bulls and now 5000 appear to be formidable and also psychological levels for nifty. As has been indicated by me in my last week’s update nifty has found resistance at 5160, the area between 5160 and 5202 would be the formidable level to be crossed. If nifty fails to go past these levels then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 4700 once again for details please refer section under Elliott wave. One of the noticing features of this week’s movement is that it has moved above 50 and 100 day EMA, which were offering resistance in previous two weeks. The movement above these two EMAs is an indication of short term bullishness in the market and it gives scope for further upside movement. But these MAs are now at 5098 and 5070, means they are very near and we have to see whether they would offer support now if nifty turns down.
Time series analysis: I have been mentioning from the last few weeks in my time series analysis that nifty has been raising for 14 weeks to 10 weeks and has been falling for 5 weeks or 3 weeks. And I have also indicated that any change in time periods would be the first confirmation of the reversal of the trend. This has happened for the first time in March 09 and trend has reversed from bear to bull phase. And the fall of this time has been for 8 weeks which is the largest of any fall in the current up move which is giving a clear indication that the trend might have reversed and we might be heading for further down sides. Nifty has to move below 4675 by the end of next week to indicate the strength of bears. You may be asking question as to why? Because it took 9 weeks for the market to rise from 4675 to 5399 so it should move below it in lesser no of days in order to indicate strength in reverse direction. If nifty fails to move below 4675 this week then we can be sure that bulls have strength and bears have weakned. It has been observed in the previous cases of trend reversal or the time period reversal the markets have risen or fallen for 14 weeks in the first period of time reversal. In January 2008 when market has reversed market has fallen for 14 weeks and in March 2009 when market reversed it has risen for 14 weeks in the first time of reversal. After March 2009 market has for the first time has observed time reversal so whether we would fall for 14 continues weeks this time also we have to wait and watch.
Positives for Nifty:
· Market is above 200 day EMA.
· Market has moved above 15 day, 50 day or 100 day EMA.
· Daily MACD has just given a buy signal
· +DMI has started to move up and –DMI has started to move down.
Negatives for nifty:
· 15 day EMA has moved below 50 day EMA and also 100 day EMA
· Daily and Weekly TRIX are still in sell mode.
· Weekly MACD has given sell signal immediately after giving a buy signal indicating extreme weakness in the market.
· DMI has moved above 20 presently at 26 indicating strength of bears.
Elliott wave:
Elliott wave analysis of the current movement is given in the chart below. there is two probable alternatives which are shown in two charts below. In the alternative –I nifty would not move above 5160 and in alternative-II we may be seeing nifty rising maximum upto 5290.. If nifty moves to these levels it would provide a very good opportunity to go short with straight stop loss above these levels. If nifty fails to move past 5160 we have all the chances of nifty moving below it low of 4787 and the movement would be very very swift. So better watch out if nifty moves above 5100 and subsequently moves below it.
Directional Momentum index – (DMI)
+D1 has moved above –D1 and during the week has moved from 32 to 26 indicating that bears are losing ground in the market. Even +D1 is moving up and –D1 is moving down which clearly indicating that bears have lost ground and bulls might have gained upper hand. In the current week bears might make an another attempt if they fail we might see very good swift upside movement.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 06th May 2010, Time 19.29 IST
Trend is friend
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
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