Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Monday, December 27, 2010
Nifty Weekly Update
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 25th December 2010.
Nifty opened on a positive note but not a strong note and weekly close was nearly at the high of the week indicating some strength for bulls. One of the strongest point to be noted is that during the entire week the market did not go below the low of the previous weeks indicating that bulls were successful in keeping the bears away and their strength would be know or proved only if in the coming week if they take market further up and probably above 6100 which bears are finding difficult to break. In the coming week 6100 would be the lakshman rekha for the bulls and if it is taken out then bears would run for shelter. So keep a close watch on 6100 which would be make or break for bulls. Another point of strength for the market is that market was able to move above 50 day EMA has been able to maintain above it, thus now 50 day EMA would act as support for the nifty and till it stays above it we have all chances of nifty moving up and breach of the same would be disastrous for the bulls and it happens to be at 5957 so on lower side it should offer support. So nifty seems to be having resistance at 6100 and support at 5957 so any movement on either side would have huge impact on bulls or bears considering on which side it breaks out. If nifty moves above 6100 then it has chances of taking the market towards 6200 levels. So we have to see whether the market would move and close above those levels or not. i have been mentioning from so many months that we would be completing 21 months of continues rise in November 2010 and chances of market correcting there after and also historically market have rise for a maximum period of 23 months and second highest rise was for 21 months. And we now we have completed exactly 21 months of continues rise and we have entered the 22 months. We have made high in 21st month and started to correct from that month only. Historically we have not see markets correction starting in the month of November. What has happened historically is that markets have corrected in the month of November and in December upto first half of January the markets rise and there after the market falls. We have to see whether the same phenomenon repeats this time also .if this has to happen then we should see the market raising up and making a new high or just go near the high and then fall very fast in the month of January 2010.
One point which I have indicated during the last week is that nifty has broken the 21month trend line which is bearish for the market and is still below that line only indicating that bulls are loosing strength but has to confirm it by forming a lower low and still not confirmed the same. Any close blow 5300 only would confirm the bearishness for the market.
Positives for the market:
· Nifty is above 15 day EMA( moved above this during the week), 100 day EMA and 200 day EMA
· It has closed above 50 day EMA indicating strength for the bulls.
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal indicating/strengthening bulls and pointing towards further upside movement in the market. In the current uptrend whenever MACD has given a buy signal nifty has moved by around 250 to 300 points whether the same would happen this time also only time would tell.
· Weekly stochastic oscillators is in buy mode indicating strength of bulls.
Negatives for the market:
· Nifty is exactly at 50 day EMA whether it would offer as resistance now or not we have to see.
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Daily stochastic is in sell mode indicating that bears has in short term gained upper hand but as the weekly stochastic is in buy mode it seems to indicate that every sell might be bought into.
Wolf wave:
One interesting pattern which majority of analyst’s seems to have over looked is the wolf wave(WW) principle. This is one of the power full pattern which gives the clear indication probable bear market in a raising market and bull market in a bear market. The bullish pattern was formed in October 2008 ( peak of bear market)when everything around and everybody was talking about perennial bear market and confirmed in march 2009 and you know after that we have see a very long bullish market .
Nifty opened on a positive note but not a strong note and weekly close was nearly at the high of the week indicating some strength for bulls. One of the strongest point to be noted is that during the entire week the market did not go below the low of the previous weeks indicating that bulls were successful in keeping the bears away and their strength would be know or proved only if in the coming week if they take market further up and probably above 6100 which bears are finding difficult to break. In the coming week 6100 would be the lakshman rekha for the bulls and if it is taken out then bears would run for shelter. So keep a close watch on 6100 which would be make or break for bulls. Another point of strength for the market is that market was able to move above 50 day EMA has been able to maintain above it, thus now 50 day EMA would act as support for the nifty and till it stays above it we have all chances of nifty moving up and breach of the same would be disastrous for the bulls and it happens to be at 5957 so on lower side it should offer support. So nifty seems to be having resistance at 6100 and support at 5957 so any movement on either side would have huge impact on bulls or bears considering on which side it breaks out. If nifty moves above 6100 then it has chances of taking the market towards 6200 levels. So we have to see whether the market would move and close above those levels or not. i have been mentioning from so many months that we would be completing 21 months of continues rise in November 2010 and chances of market correcting there after and also historically market have rise for a maximum period of 23 months and second highest rise was for 21 months. And we now we have completed exactly 21 months of continues rise and we have entered the 22 months. We have made high in 21st month and started to correct from that month only. Historically we have not see markets correction starting in the month of November. What has happened historically is that markets have corrected in the month of November and in December upto first half of January the markets rise and there after the market falls. We have to see whether the same phenomenon repeats this time also .if this has to happen then we should see the market raising up and making a new high or just go near the high and then fall very fast in the month of January 2010.
One point which I have indicated during the last week is that nifty has broken the 21month trend line which is bearish for the market and is still below that line only indicating that bulls are loosing strength but has to confirm it by forming a lower low and still not confirmed the same. Any close blow 5300 only would confirm the bearishness for the market.
Positives for the market:
· Nifty is above 15 day EMA( moved above this during the week), 100 day EMA and 200 day EMA
· It has closed above 50 day EMA indicating strength for the bulls.
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal indicating/strengthening bulls and pointing towards further upside movement in the market. In the current uptrend whenever MACD has given a buy signal nifty has moved by around 250 to 300 points whether the same would happen this time also only time would tell.
· Weekly stochastic oscillators is in buy mode indicating strength of bulls.
Negatives for the market:
· Nifty is exactly at 50 day EMA whether it would offer as resistance now or not we have to see.
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Daily stochastic is in sell mode indicating that bears has in short term gained upper hand but as the weekly stochastic is in buy mode it seems to indicate that every sell might be bought into.
Wolf wave:
One interesting pattern which majority of analyst’s seems to have over looked is the wolf wave(WW) principle. This is one of the power full pattern which gives the clear indication probable bear market in a raising market and bull market in a bear market. The bullish pattern was formed in October 2008 ( peak of bear market)when everything around and everybody was talking about perennial bear market and confirmed in march 2009 and you know after that we have see a very long bullish market .
Now it seems to have formed WW pattern and that too a bearish pattern but it is yet to confirm the same. I am now waiting for confirmation of the same. Once it is confirmed then bulls would run for shelter. One of the advantages about the pattern is that it also gives the target after the confirmation of the trend or the pattern. And believe you this time also the target is there but it would frighten bulls away and the target is somewhere” hold your breath” around 3200-3400 levels. You or anybody would not believe the target and would not heed to same. But believe me if the pattern is confirmed then we have all probable chances of seeing the target confirmed. Now you would be having a question as to when would the pattern be confirmed? yes it would be clearly be anybodies question. I would not maintain suspense, any weekly closely preferably monthly close below 5650 would levels would confirm the pattern. Bulls should hope the market not to close below that level any close below the same then they would run for shelter. So as far as bulls are concerned as per this pattern 5650 would be the lakshman rekha, till they are above that they would not have any problem once taken out it would be end of the bull market and bulls would be running for cover and we would be seeing nifty falling by atleast 2500 points from those levels. so watch out for 5650.
Elliott wave analysis:
The two alternative which I have indicated in my last week’s update still hold good and they are provided hereunder.. Under the alternative -1 we might have made a top in November at 6350 and we might have started the down move and we might see market moving up till around 6100-6200 levels and then moving down to around 5200 levels at-least.
Under alternative -2 it appears that we might have completed the wave-4 of the wave -5 and we might have just started the wave-5 of wave-5 and we should see whether it would take the market to a new high or not. If a new high is not made it would indicate a 5th wave failure and we can see market tanking from those levels. Till 5700 is not taken out this option would hold good if broken then the option one would hold good.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, December 26, 2010 20:09 IST
Monday, December 20, 2010
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 18th December 2010.
Nifty opened on a strong note and has maintained at those levels whole during the week. One of the positive things during the week is that the market has closed nearly at the top during the week and also during the week it has not moved below the low of the week indicating the bulls were successful in maintaining at higher levels thus indicating their strength. It is appearing technically that the market might move up from current levels. Nifty has to move above 6069 to indicate further strength in the market any close above that on weekly basis has chances of taking the market towards 6200 levels. So we have to see whether the market would move and close above those levels or not. i have been mentioning from so many months that we would be completing 21 months of continues rise in November 2010 and chances of market correcting there after and also historically market have rise for a maximum period of 23 months and second highest rise was for 21 months. And we now we have completed exactly 21 months of continues rise and we have entered the 22 months. We have made high in 21st month and started to correct from that month only. Historically we have not see markets correction starting in the month of November. What has happened historically is that markets have corrected in the month of November and in December upto first half of January the markets rise and there after the market falls. We have to see whether the same phenomenon repeats this time also.if this has to happen then we should see the market raising up and making a new high or just go near the high and then fall very fast in the month of January 2010.
One of the point which is indicating the strength of the bears is that the market has broke the 21months trend line in the month of November. This is a very bearish indicating shows the strength of the bulls. Nifty has to move above that trend line to indicate any strength of bulls. This phenomenon has been observed three time earlier also in the last one year where in the trend line has been broken but the market has not corrected significantly and still there are maintaining below that trend lines.
Nifty opened on a strong note and has maintained at those levels whole during the week. One of the positive things during the week is that the market has closed nearly at the top during the week and also during the week it has not moved below the low of the week indicating the bulls were successful in maintaining at higher levels thus indicating their strength. It is appearing technically that the market might move up from current levels. Nifty has to move above 6069 to indicate further strength in the market any close above that on weekly basis has chances of taking the market towards 6200 levels. So we have to see whether the market would move and close above those levels or not. i have been mentioning from so many months that we would be completing 21 months of continues rise in November 2010 and chances of market correcting there after and also historically market have rise for a maximum period of 23 months and second highest rise was for 21 months. And we now we have completed exactly 21 months of continues rise and we have entered the 22 months. We have made high in 21st month and started to correct from that month only. Historically we have not see markets correction starting in the month of November. What has happened historically is that markets have corrected in the month of November and in December upto first half of January the markets rise and there after the market falls. We have to see whether the same phenomenon repeats this time also.if this has to happen then we should see the market raising up and making a new high or just go near the high and then fall very fast in the month of January 2010.
One of the point which is indicating the strength of the bears is that the market has broke the 21months trend line in the month of November. This is a very bearish indicating shows the strength of the bulls. Nifty has to move above that trend line to indicate any strength of bulls. This phenomenon has been observed three time earlier also in the last one year where in the trend line has been broken but the market has not corrected significantly and still there are maintaining below that trend lines.
It can be seen from the above chart that nifty has clearly broke the 21 month trend line and 21 happens to be a Fibonacci so the breakdown can be genuine so we have to see whether nifty move below or not.
It can be seen from the above chart that the nifty has given a break out in September 2010 and after that the same trend should offer itself as support and not it can be seen that it is clearly offering support at present so till this trend line (support line) is held there should be not problem for bulls and we can have all possible chances of nifty or market conquering new highs. So this trend line(support line) is crucial for the market. The trend line appears to be around 5700 levels so till this level is held there should be no problem for bulls and the day it is taken out we can see a very very steep and violent fall in the market. Till then bulls would enjoy the market.
Positives for the market:
· Nifty is above 15 day EMA( moved above this during the week), 100 day EMA and 200 day EMA
· It is exactly placed at the 50 day EMA any move or close above it would strengthen bulls.
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal indicating/strengthening bulls and pointing towards further upside movement in the market.
· Daily and weekly stochastic oscillators are in buy mode indicating strength of bulls.
Negatives for the market:
· Nifty is exactly at 50 day EMA whether it would offer as resistance now or not we have to see.
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
Elliott wave analysis
I have indicated in my earlier update as per Elliott wave we have targets of around 6470, 6850 and 7140. We have to see whether the same would be achieved or not. if the market now moves up 6470 would offer a good amount of resistance from current levels.
There are two alternatives for the market as per Elliott wave which are furnished in the chart below:
The two alternative as per Elliott are furnished above. Under the alternative -1 we might have made a top in November at 6350 and we might have started the down move and we might see market moving up till around 6100-6200 levels and then moving down to around 5200 levels at-least.
Under alternative -2 it appears that we might have completed the wave-4 of the wave -5 and we might have just started the wave-5 of wave-5 and we should see whether it would take the market to a new high or not. If a new high is not made it would indicate a 5th wave failure and we can see market tanking from those levels. Till 5700 is not taken out this option would hold good if broken then the option one would hold good.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Monday, December 13, 2010
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Weekly Update
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 11th December 2010.
Nifty opened on a weak note and was weak for the entire week except for Friday where market has risen from oversold levels. The movement during the week is clearly indicating strength of the bears as they did not allow the bulls to lift even their head. But one of the features of the week is the nifty has made a lower top for the first time after so many months. The market has went up but was not able to move above 6100 which is below 6300 high made in November indicating formation of lower top. But one of the positive features of the current week’s movement is that the market did not move below the low of November at around 5700 indicating that bulls were able to support at the that level. So till that bottom is held we can assume that the bull run is intact and any movement below that would indicate the formation of lower low and possible start/ confirmation of the bear market. Nifty has moved below the 15 day EMA and also the 50 day EMA indicating weakness and at present taking support at the 100 day EMA it has taken support at 100 day EMA twice during the last 15 days which is indicating that 100 day EMA would provide a good support level for the market and any weekly close below that would be a significant event and it can possibly take market towards 200 day EMA which happens to be at around 5500 levels. As of now 50 day EMA is acting a resistance and nifty has to move above that to indicate strength. But till the 6100 is taken out the short term trend as per daily charts can be said to be down.
Nifty opened on a weak note and was weak for the entire week except for Friday where market has risen from oversold levels. The movement during the week is clearly indicating strength of the bears as they did not allow the bulls to lift even their head. But one of the features of the week is the nifty has made a lower top for the first time after so many months. The market has went up but was not able to move above 6100 which is below 6300 high made in November indicating formation of lower top. But one of the positive features of the current week’s movement is that the market did not move below the low of November at around 5700 indicating that bulls were able to support at the that level. So till that bottom is held we can assume that the bull run is intact and any movement below that would indicate the formation of lower low and possible start/ confirmation of the bear market. Nifty has moved below the 15 day EMA and also the 50 day EMA indicating weakness and at present taking support at the 100 day EMA it has taken support at 100 day EMA twice during the last 15 days which is indicating that 100 day EMA would provide a good support level for the market and any weekly close below that would be a significant event and it can possibly take market towards 200 day EMA which happens to be at around 5500 levels. As of now 50 day EMA is acting a resistance and nifty has to move above that to indicate strength. But till the 6100 is taken out the short term trend as per daily charts can be said to be down.
One of the factor which is pointing toward the probable top of the market in November is the constituents of nifty have been damaged badly in the current onslaught. Surprisingly constituents of nifty appears to be more bearish than nifty itself. And another noticing feature is that the bank nifty( index of banking stocks) has around 25% weight in the nifty and it has confirmed the commencement of the down trend technically as it has formed a lower low and another heavy weight RIL is also indicating weakness technically. except IT pack nothing is looking rosy technically so all these are pointing towards possible downside in the market. so unless and other wise something spectacular happens in the market the bears appears to have say in future of the market.
Nifty has just not completed 21 months of continues rise from march 2009 and 21 happens to be a Fibonacci and there are all chances of market correcting after this Fibonacci. I have been indicting this from last so many months and the same seems to have happened. Another point which I have been indicating is that from inception onwards nifty as rise continually above 20 months only twice and maximum was 23 months which ended in may 2006 and next was 20 months which ended in January 2008 and in all these two occasions markets have corrected by min 61.8% of the rise. so historically also technicals are not supporting nifty. so unless and other some thing positive happens in the market or nifty goes on to make a new high the chances of bulls taking control of the market are thin.
Positives for Nifty:
§ Market is above 100 day and 200 day EMA.
Negatives for nifty:
§ Market is below 15 day and 50 day EMA.
§ Daily and weekly MACD is in sell mode.
§ Weekly RSI has started to move down from over sold levels and now at 59 any move below 50 would not be good for the market.
§ Daily stochastic is in sell mode
§ Weekly stochastic is in sell mode.
§ -D1 is moving up and +D1 is moving down and at very low levels. and DMI has again moved above 20 and is moving up indicating the down move might have set in.
Elliott wave analysis: There is not much change in the elliotte wave analysis the targets of 6425, 6811 and 7094 still hold good and we have to see whether the same would be achieved or not. I have some hope on achieving 6427 but doubt on remaining two. If we make a new high we have chances of seeing 6811 or near it with +/-100 points. Any close below 5300 would confirm the end of the up move.
The last wave which has started from around 5300 and ended at around 6350 levels has taken 47 days and the current down move has till now completed 24 days and we have to see the market below 5300 in next at-least 20 days to confirm the end of the up move. So the next 20 trading days are going to be crucial for the market as any move and close below 5300 would confirm the down trend and if not we can see nifty moving up and making a new high.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 12th December 2010, Time 21.09 IST
Trend is friend
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Friday, December 3, 2010
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
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