Reliance Infrastructure - Rs.1131

Reliance Infrastructure (RI) Rs.1131/- seems to have just given an upward momentum and it appears that the mometum might sustain. Over the period of last two months RI has taken support at 200 day EMA atleast three times indicated by blue arrows. All the three times it briefrly moved below the 200 day EMA and just bounced back. In the current situation it has formed three white candles after taking support at the 200 day EMA. So all this pointing towards a good upward movement in the stock. There is convergence of the MAs 15,50,100,200 and the stock has moved above those in the last one week indicating that more upsides are not ruled out. if it is able to move past 1200 then i have no doubt that it would move near the 1400 target. so trade accordingly. Even the DMI which shows the strength of the move is above 20 at 22 but movind down once it starts to move up the stock would rocket.Stop Loss can be safely put at 200 day EMA Rs.1053/-

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 26th Dec 2009.

Nifty Technical update for week ended 26th December 2009:
Nifty opened on weak note with –ve closing on Monday and there after bulls took charge of the market and on 23rd they took full control of the market where in nifty rose nearly 150 points there by decimating bears and nifty rose by nearly 150 points on that day and also followed it up on Thursday to touch a high of 5197 and there after closing at 5178 which happens to be highest closing after may 2008.After nearly two and half months nifty was able to move above 5180 and touch 5197 but it did not close above 5180, but closed at the highest point in recent times. I have been mentioning from last two to three months that nifty has formidable resistance at 5195 and till now nifty has not closed above that figure even though moved above it. It stayed above 5195 only for very short period of time but we should take that we have reached 5195. Any close of nifty above 5195 would indicate that nifty would make an attempt to touch 5520 balance is mentioned elliotte wave analysis below. One of the good news for bulls is that nifty has taken support exactly at 50 day EMA and then there after rebounded with vengeance to make a new high. This clearly indicates that bulls are still giving support to the market a the lower levels. During the week nifty has moved above 15 day EMA indicating that bulls have taken upper hand in the market giving an indication that all the fall should be taken as an opportunity to go long. 15 day EMA is at 5069 so till nifty is above this we would take every rise as an opportunity to go long. So trade accordingly

It can be seen from the above chart of nifty that nifty is continually making a higher low (indicated by blue arrows) this clearly indicating that bulls are still in control of the market. This phenomenon is clearly indicating that bulls are still in control of the market. Currently we have to wait for nifty/markets to make a lower low for confirmation of end of the up move and start of the bear phase till then we can safely assume that we bull run is still continuing. From the last few weeks I have been clearly indicating that the lower support line is giving good support for the market and this time also it has held indicating that this support line is very crucial for the bulls. The day it is broken it would confirm the down trend. So keep a close watch on the same. It may also be noted that 50 day EMA is offering very good support for the market for the last 10 months so this also forms a good support for the market so these are the two things which has to be keenly watched. The 50 day EMA is at 5002 and the support line is at around 4950. so these are the two levels which are to be closely watched.
As per Fibonacci we have completed 9 months and we are into 10th month of rise and generally speaking we should rise upto 13th month which happens to be March 2010. Strightly speaking nifty should be raising upto March 2010. But one point to be noted is that generally markets or stocks correct in the 11th month also. This I have seen so many times so we have to be on watch out for the 11th month also. But what ever may be the case we can wait for the market to make a lower high and also lower low for confirmation of down trend.

Positive for nifty:
• It is still at 15 day,50 day and above 100 day EMA
• RSI has once again moved above 50.
• DMI has given a buy signal – but DMI has to move above 20 to confirm the trend.
Negatives for nifty:
• OBV has broken the trend line.
• Weekly MACD and TRIX have given sell signal.
• Huge –ve divergence between RSI on weekly and daily charts.
• DMI is moving down.
• Daily MACD and TRIX are in sell mode
It can be seen from the above that –ve are decreasing and positives are increasing indicating that bullish sentiment is increasing in the market.
Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. This week the +D1 line is above the -D1 line and DMI is in neutral zone. During the week DMI has stayed around 15 only for whole of the week indicating directionless for the market. During the week it has indicated that bulls are having upper hand and the strength of the bulls is not being indicated by rise of DMI as DMI was stationary.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy:
During the last week market has moved exactly as per pivot it has stayed below pivot in the beginning part of the week and made a low of 4943(which is near the S1 which was at 4925) and there after moved above the pivot at 5041 and moved above the R1 at 5102 and towards 5218(nifty made a high of 5198). It can be seen from the pivot that pivots is giving a very good trading opportunity and if trade is made with straight stop loss we can make good amount of profit. For the coming week pivot is around 5113 if nifty stays above that then we have chances of moving towards 5282 and 5367. If it breaks below the pivot it can move towards at-least 5028 and 4859

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 27th December 2009 Time 18.40 IST
Trend is Friend.

nifty update as per Gann

As per the gann fanns the next support appears to be at around 4850. As per gann lines as the market is weak we might not be surprised even if the market goes there. if it goes there any body who is short should protect his profits. as per this the resistance is around 5020. So watch for 4850.
M.Sri Mahidra
Trend is Friend.

Lanco Infratech Limited - Rs.535

Lanco Infratech Limited.-Rs.535/-

Lanco Infratech Limited is now exactly positioned at the six months trend line where it has been taking support for the last five(fibonacci) months. It has taken support atleast twice at the trend line. Now it is placed exactly at that so we have to wait and see whether it breaks the same or not we have to see. If it breaks Rs.525/- then it would break the trend line and also the trend for the last five months -probably the up trend. So if any body is short be carefull or wait for the confirmation to go short.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend.

Nifty Weekly technical update ween ended 18th Dec 2009

Nifty Technical update for week ended 18th December 2009:
Nifty opened on a weak note and continues to fall all through the week and virtually closed at the low of the week. One of the significant events during the week is that the markets have gone below the 15 day EMA and also just gone below the 50 day EMA but closed exactly at the 50 day EMA. Next weeks opening is very important as any breach of 50 day EMA has all the chances of taking the market towards 4811 levels which happens to be the 100 day EMA. If nifty is able to sustain above the 50 day EMA then it has all the chances of moving towards 5100 levels before plunging. As nifty has gone below the 15 day EMA now we should see every rise as an opportunity to short. 15 day EMA is placed at 5061 so this not becomes lakshmanrekha for nifty any break of the same on the upper side we should reverse our position from short to long. During the last 9 months nifty has gone below the 50 day EMA twice and then recovered there after and one time take support exactly at the 50 day MA and then went on to make a new high. This is the first time that nifty has moved above 50 day EMA after moving below it and has not made a new high. Is this a possible indication of reversal? So please keep a close watch on the movement of nifty in early part of the week as this might give us an indication of what is in store for the coming week and also the month. One positive thing for the bulls is that the volumes are not increasing along with the fall once the volumes start increasing with the fall then we might see the real fall. But as of not it is not indicating increasing in volumes which is giving an indication that the market might not fall at the faster rate. But it appears that every body is waiting for technical levels to be breached before making a short sell. The put call ration which is the short term indicator of the trend is not placed around 1.10 indicating puts are just move that the calls and just at the walls. The PCR has been continually decreasing during the whole entire week indicating while market was falling every body is buying calls or are closing puts thus giving a clear indication that the upside might be capped at around 5100-5200 levels as of now and if PCR is to be believed the we might not see market breaching 5200 atleast in this month.
it can be seen from the above chart that nifty has broken the one and half months trend line that too on slightly higher volumes, making us to believe that it’s a true break out. If this is true then we might move towards the next support level which happens to be 100 day EMA and also the 5 month trend line which are situated at around 4811 and 4880. So it appears that the fall may be arrested at these levels and any breach of these would be catastrophic for the bulls and bears might just gain a tremendous upper hand on the market and we might see a free fall up to 4500 levels. Till now market has even though formed a lower high it has not formed a lower bottom for confirmation of the end of the up trend. If nifty closes below 4500 then it would confirm the lower bottom which would be sufficient to indicate that the bears have successfully conquered bulls. So just wait for 4500 to be breached before jumping into the market in big.

One of the concerns which I have not till now indicated is that if you could notice in the above chart rounded top formation which is forming from last 40 days. Generally the rounded top formation is one of the power full reversal indications. Now volumes have to confirm. It means if the volumes increase along with the fall this would confirm the formation of the rounded top. So we have to keep a close watch on volumes.

ON Balance Volume:

On balance volume (OBV) one of the power full indicators which generally indicate the reversal of the trend has just given an indication of reversal. The trend line which it has bee respecting from may 2009 after election till the last fall has broken indicating the trend might have been reversed. When ever nifty has fell OBV has taken support at the trend line but this time during early fall the OBV has broken the trend line clearly indicating that we might have just seen the top.

It can be seen from the above chart the in the month of march when the market has reversed this has been confirmed by break of down ward sloping trend line drawn from the top of 2008 of OBV and you see markets have risen from those levels. This time exactly reversal has happened indicating that we might have reversed the up trend. If this has to be believed I have no doubt that market is going to move below November low sooner that later. So OBV is indicating bulls beware.

Positive for nifty:
• It is still at 50 day and above 100 day EMA
Negatives for nifty:
• Volumes are increasing with the every fall
• OBV has broken the trend line.
• RSI has moved below 50.
• Weekly MACD and TRIX have given sell signal.
• Huge –ve divergence between RSI on weekly and daily charts.
• DMI is moving down.
• DMI has given a sell signal – but DMI has to move above 20 to confirm the trend.
• Daily MACD and TRIX are in sell mode.

Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. This week also the –D1 line is above the +D1 line and DMI is in neutral zone. It has moved from 11.64 levels to around 13.24 levels during the weak which is clearly indicating that bears are slowly gaining upper hand and that down ward momentum is gaining upper hand. Keep a close watch if DMI moves above 16 it would indicate that bears are in for a party in the coming weeks/months.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy: During the last week market has moved exactly as per pivot it has moved above the pivot reached a high of 5156 then moved below the pivot and pierced the S1 and has exactly closed at S2. For the Coming week weekly pivot is placed at 5041 and if nifty stays below it during the week then we can see 4925 and then 4864. It may be noted that any breach of 4903 it would break the monthly pivot in that case we might see further downsides in the market. So keep a close watch on weekly/monthly pivots.

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 20th December 2009 Time 19.10 IST
Trend is Friend.

Bank nifty

Bank nifty has broke the nine months trend line and also broken below the 15 day EMA which is at 9179 and closed at 8996 which is clearly giving an indication that bank nifty has become and bears are taking upper hand. It may be noted that the 50 day EMA is at 8911 and any break below that has chances of taking bankek towards 8200 levels. it may also be noted that during the last nine months bank nifty has taken support of 50 day EMA three times giving an indication that it should be closely watched when it approaches 50 day EMA. so keep a close watch we may get a good trading opportunit at that level.

14th December - 11.07 PM IST.

M.Sri Mahidar

Tren is Friend -

Nifty weekly technical update 12th Dec 2009.

Nifty Technical update for week ended 12th December 2009
Nifty movement during the week was very boring as nothing seems to have happened during the week and nifty moved nowhere. It was stuck in 100 point range from 5070 to 5180. This week also nifty moved or touched 5180 and then started to moved down and corrected. During the last one and half months this is the fourth time that nifty has failed to move above the 5180 level and all those times nifty has tanked immediately after testing the level, thus giving a clear indication that 5180 has now becoming a formidable resistance for the nifty. So it appears that unless and other wise nifty closes above 5200 no longs should be entered. Even if shorts are entered they should be closed on movement of nifty above 5200 level. Nifty is still maintaining above the 15 day EMA which is at 5085 and till it is above that level we can thing of entering long only and not short. If nifty moves below the 15 day EMA then we can thing of shorting nifty. Whole through the week nifty has taken support at the 15 day EMA at-least thrice thus giving us an indication that nifty is finding support exactly at the 15 day EMA so nifty is stuck between the 15 day EMA and 5180 any move on either side might result in nifty moving in that direction by at least 200 to 300 points. You are advised to trade accordingly. It is better to wait for break out on either side before initiating any trade.
On weekly chart nifty has failed to move above the previous weeks high indicating that the indices might be becoming weak. This weeks low is at 5051 any movement of nifty below that would result in violent fall in nifty so any move below will signal strength of the bears.
One of the noticing features of movement of nifty is that as nifty was trying to make a new up and make a high, Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been moving down and making a –ve divergence. RSI is not placed at 54 and any move below 50 would strengthen the bears.

It may appears to you that I want the market to go down, it is not the case all the technical indicators are pointing towards the same but market is not confirming the same. So we have to wait till the market confirms, till that time as is the case follow the trend.
Positive for nifty:
• It is still above 15 day, 50 day and 100 day EMA
Negatives for nifty:
• Volumes are increasing with the every fall
• Weekly MACD and TRIX have given sell signal.
• Huge –ve divergence between RSI on weekly and daily charts.
• DMI is moving down.
• DMI has given a sell signal – but DMI has to move above 20 to confirm the trend.
• Daily MACD and TRIX are in sell mode.
Elliotte wave analysis:
During last few weeks it has been indicated that, 5195 and 5520 are the targets which have to be broken, I have also indicated that if nifty fails to move above 5195 and then we have chances of nifty moving towards the low of November. It has gone near 5195 twice during last one week and thrice during last one and half months giving an indication the 5195 offers a formidable resistance. As nifty has once again failed (fourth time) to move above 5195 we have all chances of seen 4500 in near future.
Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. This week also the –D1 line is above the +D1 line and DMI is moving down wards, it has moved from 14 levels to around 12 levels during the weak which is clearly indicating that the market is directionless and calls should be taken only when DMI give an indication of strength in that direction. Till that time it is better for us to wait patiently. Even though market has moved during the week –D1 is maintaining above +D1 giving an indication that bears are still having slight upper hand but are failing to take control over the market, which is clearly indicated by the down ward movement of DMI.

Pivot Point Trading Strategy:

Last week, during the whole week nifty stayed above the pivot point and went near the week R1 of 5212 and then reversed towards pivot. For the current week Pivot is placed at 5117 and nifty is exactly placed at that level. Any move below that would open gates towards 5051 and there after 4986. and any move above it would pave way for 5182.

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 13th December 2009 Time 19.24 IST
Trend is Friend.

Praj Industries Limited - triangle break out.

It can be seen from the above chart that praj industries Lld- Rs.99 has just broken out of the triangle pattern. it appears that the triangle has formed over a period of 8 months( fibonacci again) and has just given a break out of the trend line. please see the volumes on break out also which appears to be very very huge suggesting that the break out may be genuine and we might see further upsides in the stock. Fundamentally the stock needs no introduction so the stock appears to be good technical buy. As ususal stop loss: below Rs.85.


M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is friend.

Nifty weekly technical update for week ended 5th December 2009.

Nifty Technical update for week ended December 2009
Nifty opened on a strong note continued to move up during whole of the week except on Friday it closed on a negative note. Last week I have indicated in my weekly update that the long tail formed on Friday the 26th Nov was not good for bears and that the bulls might gain upper hand at-least for the short term and the same appears to have happened during the week. Nifty is still above the 15 day EMA which clearly is giving an indication that we should see an opportunity to go long on every fall. 15 day EMA is at 5055 and any move below this should be taken as an opportunity to short. So please keep a close watch on this as this is very near to the weekly close of 5108. This week also nifty has went up near the previous top and then reversed. It went up above 5151 and towards previous high at 5181 and then reversed towards 5100 level. It failed to close above 5150 precisely above 5200 levels for the third time in last one and half month and also twice in last week, giving a clear indication that 5150 is a formidable resistance which has to be broken at-least for the short term. 5180 happens to be also to be near the crucial resistance level which would be discussed in the elliotte wave analysis. One thing is sure that nifty is facing formidable resistance at 5200 levels. Now it is sure that unless and other wise 5150 it taken out successfully and also 5200 then only bulls can be strong other wise bears would be coming into the market slowely to take the market to further down sides. All the technical oscillators are not showing any strength to the ongoing up trend and are pointing towards probable reversal rather than upside breakout which every body is expecting. Till 4700 is taken out the bulls would be making attempt to take the market higher if 4700 is taken out then we might see a bigger falls that we have seen in last eight months. We can observe in the market that even though the market is at the same level during the last one and half month, activity has picked up in the madcap stocks and they are just running away thus giving an indication that the activity has shifted towards midcaps which generally take place in the last stage of the rise. Directional Momentum index (DMI) which is one of the most power indicator of strength is still moving down which is clearly giving an indication that the rise is loosing momentum and also it lacks strength details discussion would be made at DMI discussed below. Market is giving clear indications of weakness but it is still not shown in the price so we have to patiently wait for the market to give its direction an just jump into it to generate good profits. So bears please have patience.
It can be seen from the chart below that nifty has formed a lower low compared to that of last month. Last months high was 5182 and nifty has reversed after touching 5181 giving a clear indication that the market might be slowely going into the hands of bears. Whether we have formed a double top or market would make strong rally from the current levels we have to wait and watch. It can also be seen from the chart below the there is a huge –ve divergence between the nifty and RSI, while RSI is moving down towards making a low nifty if moving up and trying to make a new high. This divergence appears to be huge so pointing towards probable reversal but we have to wait for the

Market to give the clear signal than jumping into the market on the short side. let the market confirm the trend and then jump as the chances of going wrong are less than that of now. So just keep a close watch.
Positive for nifty:
• It is still above 15 day, 50 day and 100 day EMA
Negatives for nifty:
• Volumes are increasing with the every fall
• Weekly MACD and TRIX have given sell signal.
• Huge –ve divergence between RSI on weekly and daily charts.
• DMI has given a sell signal – but DMI has to move above 20 to confirm the trend.
• Daily MACD and TRIX are in sell mode.
Elliotte wave analysis:
During last few weeks it has been indicated that, 5195 and 5520 are the targets which have to be broken, I have also indicated that if nifty fails to move above 5195 and then we have chances of nifty moving towards the low of November. It has gone near 5195 twice during last one week and thrice during last one and half months giving an indication the 5195 offers a formidable resistance. As nifty has once again failed to move above 5195 we have all chances of seen 4500 in near future.
Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. This week also the –D1 line is above the +D1 line and DMI is moving down wards, it has moved from 16 levels to around 14 levels during the weak which is clearly indicating that the market is directionless and any call on eight calls should not be taken and should be taken only when DMI give an indication of strength in that direction. Till that time it is better for us to wait patiently. Even though market has moved during the week –D1 is maintaining above +D1 giving an indication that bears are still having slight upper hand but are failing to take control over the market, which is clearly indicated by the down ward movement of DMI.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy:

Last week nifty has moved exactly according to pivot strategy. It stayed above the pivot and it virtually went near the R2 level before reversing towards R1. as can be seen from the above table weekly pivot is placed at 5077 as any move below it would take nifty to 4973 and then 4838. And if nifty stays above the pivot then we have chances of seeing 5212.

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 6th December 2009 Time 19.07 IST
Trend is Friend.

nifty technical update as on 3rd December 2009

Nifty opened on a positive note and continued to move up for whole part of the day and then corrected towards the end of the day and closed at nearly at the low of the day. In the mean time it made a two day low indicating that bulls might have tired out and that bears might have gained upper hand atleast for the short time. Nifty is still maintaining above the 15 day EMA which is signifying that bulls are still having upper hand, it is still maintaining above all the short term moving avarages indicating that bulls are still having upper hand. 5 day EMA is placed at 5095 so tomorrow it is going to offer resistance after which 15 day EMA at 5050 is going to give good support.

If you see the EOD chart of the nifty below, it clearly shows a clear heavy -ve divergence between the nifty and the RSI. There is huge -ve divergence and generally these type of heavy divergences occur when extreme bullish or bearish sentiments come into the market. These are clearly indicating that we are going to getting correction soon. It can also be seen that nifty has once again failed to pass above the 5180 and 5200 levels and this is the third time which it has failed in the last two months which is clearly suggesting that there are the curcial levels to be kept in mind in the days to come.

Nifty technical update - Dec 1st 2009

Nifty has opened on strong note and continued to move up during the day and closed virtually at the high of the day which is clearly indicating that bulls are in charge of the market. Nifty has now come to 5150 levels which it has failed to move past atleast two times in the last one and half month. And any failure to go past this time would be check mate for the bulls and bears would take control of the market and in that case i am sure that market might go below the november lows. nifty has to atleast move above and close above 5150 level for atleast 3 days, preferably above the 5200 for bulls to take charge. Now we will see what technicals are indicating. Technicals generally given what the undertone is and market generally follows the same. If you can see from the chart below there is Huge -ve divergence between nifty and RSI which does not augur well for the market. while RSI is moving down the market is moving up which is clearly indicating that undertone appears to be weak. It may also be seen that the MACD histogram is clearly showing -ve divergence which is also indicating that the undertone is weak.

Directional Momentum index which is one of my favorite which given the strength of the current trend is flat and is placed at 16 which is clearly indicating that the current up move lacs strength.

All these are clearly indicating that even though markets are moving up they lack strength and when ever reversal happens it would be to a larger extent. My policy is follow the trend, even though the oscillators are showing weakness market is moving up so eigther be with the market or do not trade.

Nifty weekly technical update as on 29th November 2009

Nifty Technical update for week ended 28th November 2009
Nifty opened on a strong note moved up in the initial part of the week made a high of 5138 and from there after it tanked and fell heavily on Thursday and Friday and recovered in the last half of Friday there by closing the week on a weak note. The fall on the last two days is on heavy volumes suggesting that the trend may continue in near future. It can be seen that nifty has failed to close above 5150 this time also, this is the second attempt of nifty at 5150 in last one month or so. Thus giving a clear indication that 5150 would be the difficult to cross in near time. The time gap of one and half months between two attempts to conquer 5150 is very significant, generally when ever such time gaps are there between two attempts, these levels are difficult to go past either in uptrend or down trend. So if history is to be seen than it would not be easy for nifty to go past 5150. So till 5150 is taken our successful we have all the chances of indices moving further down sides. I have been clearly indicating for the last few weeks that the days in which markets close on positive note the volumes are very low and the days in which market falls or closes negatively volumes are very high indicating that distribution is going and markets might drift lower. It can be seen from the chart below that volumes are very high in the last two days when the market has fallen violently indicating that down trend might has started and we might be seen further down sides on coming weeks. Nifty during the week has moved below all the EMA 5 day, 15 day, and 50 day MA in just two days indicating weakness. It also moved below the 50 day EMA and in later part of Friday recovered and moved above the 50 day EMA. 15 day EMA is placed at 5002 so as along as nifty is below it we should take every rise as an opportunity to short. If nifty moves above it then it is better to reverse positions with stop loss at those levels.

Positive for nifty:
• It is still above 50 day and 100 day EMA
Negatives for nifty:
• It is below the 15 day EMA
• Volumes are increasing with the every fall
• Weekly MACD and TRIX have given sell signal.
• DMI has given a sell signal – but DMI has to move above 20 to confirm the trend.
• Daily MACD and TRIX are in sell mode.

Elliotte wave analysis:
During last few weeks it has been indicated that, 5195 and 5520 are the targets which has to be broken, I have also indicated that if nifty fails to move above 5195 and then we have chances of nifty moving towards the low of November. As nifty has once again failed to move above 5195 we have all chances of seen 4500 in near future.

Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. This week –D1 has moved above +D1 indicating strength of bears. Also the movement was very swift and straight indicating that bears are coming into very fast. But the DMI is still moving down and is placed at 16 but appears to have just started to move up it has to move above 20 to confirm trend. So keep a close watch on DMI to know the strength of the trend.

Pivot Point Trading Strategy:
Last week nifty has moved exactly according to pivot strategy. For the coming week the pivot is placed at 4962. If nifty moves above 4962(preferably close) then we have chances of moving towards 5117 if nifty fails to move above 4962 or if moves above 4962 and fails to move past 5117 then we can easily see nifty moving towards 4785 and 4630.It may also be noted that monthly previous pivot is placed at 4860 and yearly previous pivot is placed at 4856 so if these are broken then we can see 4500 easily.

Turtle Trading:
20 day phenomenon
Current trend - neutral
Go long above 5138( add to positions)
Square off – NA
Go short below: 4539.
ATR – 94

M.Sri Mahidar
Monday 29th November 2009 Time 19.55 IST
Trend is Friend.

nifty update for 26th November 2009.

Nifty has done what has been expected for last one week onwards. Opened on a stong note, then became weak and in the end fell like nine pins to close at the lowest point of the day, thus signifying that bears are becomming increasingly strong and further down sides are not ruled out. One of the noticing features of today movement is the long bearish candle associated with heavy volumes. Another noticing feature of todays movement is that nifty has broken through series of MA from 3 day to 15 day indicating the market might has turned down. It appears that 5150 is one level which nifty is finding it difficult to break and where ever it is going near it is reversing in a big way. So for the atleast short term 5150 is the major resistance which nifty has to creack other wise i have not doubt the the low of november would be again tested. It can be seen from the chart that trend line from the botton of november is broken with heavy volumes justifying the break of the trend line. It can be seen from the chart that the MACD is about to give a sell signal which would further strengthen the bulls. It nifty falls from there levels this the first time in last eight months the nifty would have formed a lowere top and it should be confirned by nifty breaking the november low. So longs better watch out.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is friend

Nifty weekly technical update as on 23rd November 2009

Nifty Technical update for week ended 22nd November 2009
Nifty was weak whole through out the week and on Friday it reversed all its weekly losses on Friday with a smart recovery thanks to short covering. This is reflected in volumes being less on Friday even though the market rose viciously and every body was caught unawares. Nifty has taken support exactly at the 15 day EMA and bounced back with vengeance giving a clear indication that the 15 day EMA is the crucial support to be broken. But as of now nifty is clearly above it and till the time it is above that there is no problem for bulls. Today also i.e on Monday nifty opened strongly and went on to close above the 5100 level and it may be noted that today also the volumes were less than that of Friday, it cannot be said less but significantly less that that of Friday which is clearly signifying that, even though markets are moving up the volumes are drying up this is one of the peculiar feature which is haunting every body as this is beyond technical. This is clearly raising doubt on the markets strength of the current rise. But what ever may be the case markets are raising and as the saying goes “boss is always right” as is for market also “market is always right”. Do not argue with it, so in the present case all the indicators are pointing towards correction market is still moving up so it is better we be with the market but with caution. RSI is also showing good strength to th market and pointing that further upsides are not ruled out.

It can be seen from the above chart that nifty is moving in a rectangular pattern for the last six months and every time it is touching the lower support line it is going near the upper resistance line. In the fall during the beginning of November the indices have taken support exactly at the support line and moved up vigorously. As per this pattern nifty has all the chances of moving towards 5300 and there after it should correct. But till the lower support line is broken the uptrend is intact. The support line appears to be at 4800 levels so till it is broken the uptrend is intact. So trade accordingly.

Positives for the market :
• Nifty is still above 15, 50 and 100 day Moving average.
• RSI is showing strength and has moved above 70
• DMI has given a sell signal indicating the bears have just gained upper hand
Negative for market.
• The trend line drawn from march low is broken
• Volumes are not still increasing.
• DMI is below the 20 mark indicating the lack of strength for the up move
• On weekly charts TRIX and MACD are in sell mode
Elliotte wave analysis:
There is not much change in the targets given by my in my update on 26th of September 2009. I have given targets of 5195 and 5520 and these two have not been achieved till now and we have to see whether these would be achieved or not. If the 5195 is not taken out then I have not doubt that we will be seeing the lower levels for nifty in weeks to come and surely below 4000.
Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. So market has to indicate the same so we have to closely watch the DMI as the way it gives a break out the market might move heavily.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy:
Nifty has behaved exactly as per the pivot, R1 for nifty was at 5080 and nifty made a high of 5079 and there after moved down sub-5000 and has taken support exactly at the weekly pivot of 4935 and bounced back to the levels of R1.
For the coming week the pivot is placed at 5021 and if it stays above it we have chances of seeing 5110 and today nifty has achieved it as it made a high of 5113 and then make an attempt at 5168 ( were in 52 week high of nifty is situated) if nifty fails to break above 5168 then we can see nifty making attempt at 5000 levels. so trade accordingly.

Turtle Trading:
20 day phenomenon has given a buy indication at 5079.
Current trend - buy
Go long above 5113( add to positions)
Square off – 4860
Go short below: 4539(add Positions).
ATR - 94

M.Sri Mahidar
Monday 23rd November 2009 Time 19.55 IST
Trend is Friend.

Nifty Technical Update as on 19th November 2009

Finally nifty corrected today even though it opened on slightly positive as the day progressed the nifty has become weak and finally closed a nearly days low. One of the noticing features of todays moves is that nifty has moved below the 5 day EMA which is the first sign of weakness. Todays move has taken nifty below 3,5,and 8 day moving average indicating that anticipated weakness has set into the nifty and also todays moved have taken nifty to three days low signifying that bears have taken upper hand on nifty and further upsides are not ruled out. It may also be noted that the fall of nifty from 5182 to 4539 has been in ten days and now today we have compleated 12 days and till not the top has not bee taken over indicating the up move lacs strength. So its better to trade on shorter side but if nifty scales past 5125 then we have all chances of nifty moving very swiftly so till that time its better to be on short side. first chart is 1o min chart and second chart is daily chart.

nifty technical update as on 16th November 2009

Nifty opened gap up and stayed there only for rest of the day thus not giving any trading opportunity during the day. One feature about the todays trading is it opened above 5000 and stayed there whole throught the day. One feature which should be noted is that the rise today was also on lower volumes that that of friday. for the last week onwards when ever nifty is raising it is raising on very low volumes the same is dipected in the chart below. The reduction in volumes on every rise is a indication that the current strength lacs strength. So in my view it appears that the current move lacs strenght and it is for me appears to be a dead cat bounce rather than a bullish break out. the volumes are suggesting that when ever it corrects it will be a big correction. So bears pleast wait patiently as patience is going to pay in a big way.

it may be noted that GMMA is clearly indicating that the short term MA are above the long term MA indicating that as of now bulls appear to be strong. but other indicators as of now are pointing towards the other end. One of the strongest indicator of strength is DMI is moving down which is clearly showing that bulls lack strength. so all longs should be on very stright stop loss.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is friend.

nifty weekly technical update for week ended 14th November

Nifty Technical update for week ended 14th November 2009
Nifty opened on a strong note and continued its up move all through the week. Nifty moved above 5000 but failed to sustain above 5000 for the last three days. Nifty is still maintaining above the 15 day Moving Average giving an indication that nifty is clearly in a uptrend, till the time it maintains above 15 day EMA every fall should be used as an opportunity to short. 15 day EMA is placed at 4893 so till it is above it we should take it as an opportunity to go long at ever rise, if it moves below this we can be short on the market. One of the points to be noted in this week movement is that the nifty is witnessing selling pressure whenever it is reaching or moving above 5000 indicating that it has to decisively move above it to indicate strength. Previously also nifty found it difficult to move above 5000 and after much effort it moved above it and then collapsed two weeks back. So 5000 appears to be a crucial level for nifty. It may also be noted that on 13th nifty has completed 8 months of rise and it happens to be Fibonacci so we have chances of markets correcting after completion of Fibonacci that too 8 so we have to be careful with our trades. If this month also markets move up continually then we have chances of markets moving up for another 4 months. Now we have to see whether there occurs any divergences between the oscillators and the nifty to see for any probable reversal indications. In the present scenario nifty has formed –ve divergence and there after corrected so this correction cannot be ruled out. If we have observed the volumes during the week they through unique feature, the days on which the market has closed positively the volumes were less and the day on which nifty closed negatively the volumes were heavy indicating that some amount of distribution going into the market. Volumes have to increase with rise to confirm the strength of the market. Another thing which has to be noted is that nifty has taken 10 days to fall from 5174 to 4536 and now it has completed 8 days of rise, it has to rise above 5174 in next two days to confirm the strength of the market otherwise there is doubt on the rise of the market. So next two days are going to be crucial for the market so better watch out. I have indicated in the in one of my updates in three weeks back that nifty has broken the trend line from march low and there after it has fell viciously, generally markets have tendency to move up to the trend line and then fall even faster. The trend line resistance is placed at around 5200-5250 so if nifty corrects from those or near those levels then we can be sure that correction might have started.
Elliotte Wave Analysis:
Whatever is discussed in my previous weeks update still holds good and will discuss the alternatives if the market behaves differently.

In the chart below it can be clearly seen that nifty has broke the trend line from march low and now moving up towards the same if nifty fails to move above that trend line then down trend is confirmed or that market is weak that the earlier. And also the another trend line shown in the chart below is placed at around 4800 levels if nifty breaks this trend line then we can be sure that the down trend has started and further down sides are not ruled out.

Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. So market has to indicate the same so we have to closely watch the DMI as the way it gives a break out the market might move heavily.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy:
Nifty has behaved exactly as per the pivot, nifty did not moved below the pivot and there after it moved above the R1 and also moved towards R2. R2 was placed at 5021 and nifty made a high of 5017. For the coming week the pivot is placed at 4935, if nifty stays above it then we can see 5080 and 5163 and if it moves below the pivot then we can see 4852 and 4704. So trade accordingly.
Point and figure charting:

Point and figure charting which is one of the oldest and one of the best forms of technical analysis provides an interesting picture in the weekly charts.

It can be seen from the above chart that nifty has bearish resistance line which is drawn from the high of January 2008 as per the point and figure charting. It can be seen from the above that nifty has reversed exactly on touching the resistance line and now it is nearing the same. We have to see if this is broken this time or not it has to be broken with volumes then it would confirm the up move or the break out. Generally in Point and figure charting volumes are not considered. So any break and sustaining above the resistance line would open up the gates for making a new high. It is not place at 5150, if market reverses on reaching the same then we can be sure that we might see 4500 in very short time.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 7th November 2009 time 17.35 IST
Trend is Friend.

nifty technical update as on 12.11.2009

Nifty opened on a weak note moved above 5000 and selling pressure took over and finally nifty broke thorough the 5000 level and towards the end it has made a low of 4925 and closed at 4952. it can be seen from the chart the the days on which the movement was positive was on lower volumes and the day on which it was -ve closing the volumes were high including today where in volumes were more that that of yesterday. This clearly indicating that bulls are not as strong as they appear to be and bears are slowely getting grip on the market. nifty has taken 10 days to fall from 5174 to 4536 and now it has compleated 7 days and we are at 4900 levels nifty has to move above the 5174 level in next 3 days other wise it would confirm that we might have made intermediate top at 5174.

From today onwars i would try to present, my observations as per point and figure charting.

As per three box principle nifty has give a reversal of trend as per daliy chart and nifty has to move above 5000 to negate this reversal. if nifty fails to move above 5000 tomorrow then we might see it drifting towards the low of 4536.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is friend

Nifty Update for 10th Oct 2009

Nifty moved up as has been anticipated and there after just corrected after that to close at virtually at low of the day. Nifty moved above the R1 of the weekly pivot and failed to move towards R2 which is at 5021 and moved below the R1 by the close of the day thus indicating weakness and also indicating that it might move towards the weekly pivot at 4723. Nifty has to make an attempt to moves towards 5021 other wise we have all the chances of seeing 4723 this week only. It can be noted in todays movement that nifty just moved above the 15 day High EMA and failed to sustain above it. 15 day high EMA is placed at 4907 and it might act as a resistance atleast for very short time. if nifty failes to sustain above it then it should try to move towards the 50 day EMA which is at 4830. It may be noted and has been shown in the chart that the fall of the day is along with negative candle is on higher volumes that that seen during the last four days rise which is clearly indicating that some amount of distribution is going on in the market.

nifty update as on 09.11.2009

Nifty today surprised every body and moved up, but the rise of nifty was on lower volumes indicating that the rise was merely on account of short covering rather than buying. it can be seen from the charty below that nifty has been rasing for the last four days on very less volumes and with every rise the volumes are decreasing indicating that the current up move lacs strength. It can also be seen from the chart that the MACD histogram is also showing weakness as it has not moved above the trigger line. Nifty is just placed at the 15 day low EMA and any move above it would indicate that the the trend might have reversed for the better. It may also be noted the the 61.8% retracement levels is placed at 4935 and any breach of the same has chances of taking nifty near 5000 levels. if nifty reverses wait for nifty to go below 4825 only then only try to short as this indicates the the current uptrend has reversed. It should be closely watched whether nifty moves above 4925 tomorrow as any failure to move above that levels has chances of taking nifty towards 4800.

NIfty Technical update as on 7th November 2009

Nifty Technical update for week ended 6th November 2009
Nifty has opened on a weak note and it has moved down for the first two days and moved below the 100 day EMA made a low of 4538 and on the next day it recovered dramatically for the next three days. Some of the few point to be noted during the movement of the market during the week are hereunder nifty has moved below the 100 day EMA and this is the first time in the last eight months, it may also be noted that market have been falling for the last two weeks and this the first time that market have fallen for two weeks at a stretch thus indicating that market might has just entered into the bear grip and might continue in future also. Breaking of the 100 Day EMA is a significant event which clearly indicating that bears are slowly gaining upper hand in the market. The recovery of the market after the break of the 100 day EMA is as anticipated considering the magnitude of fall so we should not be carried away by the bounce of the market and treat it as a reversal as there are some levels which it is to clear before the trend reversal can said. This week also marks the first week in the last eight months where market has spent below the 50 day EMA thus clearly signifying that market might have become weak. On Friday also markets have moved exactly to the 50 day EMA and then have reversed from there, considering this it appears that 50 day EMA has become a good resistance level for the market to conquer. 50 Day EMA is at 4830 if nifty is unable to sustain above 4830 then I have no doubt that market is going to test the 100 day EMA in the coming days. There are confluence of moving averages at present which the market has to break above 50 day EMA at 4830 and next the 15 day EMA which is at 4842. So for the time being it appears that it would be difficult for the nifty to move above these moving averages. So in the coming week, especially in the beginning nifty is not able to move above these then we can be sure that nifty has bad days to count. For the time being its better to be on short side of the market with stop loss at 15 day EMA.

50% retracement of the market is at 4860 and 61.8% retracement level is at 4935, nifty is going to get resistance at these levels so these the levels which is to be watched or to be observed carefully as any failure to move above the same would indicate imminent fall in the market.
Elliotte wave analysis:
Now we would discuss the elliotte wave analysis of the markets as per the elliotte there are two options which are available which and which are discussed below:
Here we are discussion on the pattern of the market and also future of the market on the basis of elliotte wave. We are assuming that we are correcting the total rise of the market from the low of 2003 to the high of January 2008. It is being assumed that the fall from the high of January 2008 i.e from 6357 to a low of 2539( start of the current up move is assumed to have started) is assumed to be the wave-A and now we are into the wave-B. As markets have moved above the 61.8% of the total fall of 2008 that alternative of ziz-zag corrective wave is ruled out. Now there are only two options of corrective waves is left they are
i. Flat and
ii. Triangle
We would be discussion the above two alternatives first we would discuss the alternative flat and then the triangle
Option- I – Flat
As far are flat is considered it appears that nifty has completed wave-A of the flat at 2539 from the high 6357 made in January 2008.

As per this it appears that nifty has completed wave-A at 2539 a fall of 3818 points and from there it appears that we have started wave- B and it appears that we might have just completed wave-b at 5174. Flat has three wave and as the name suggests all the waves should be of equal lengths and in actual it seldom happens. The minimum retracement for confirmation of wave-B is 61.8% as per elliotte and in the present case market have retraced more that 61.80% but less that the 80% level if we assume that wave –B has completed at 5174. In the present case if wave –B has completed at 5174 then it’s a weak wave-B and we have all the fair chances of market touching the low of October 2008 or at-least the low of march which happens to be at 2539. If we assume the wave-B has completed at 5174 then the minimum retracement levels of the wave –C should be 38.1% of the wave-A so the nifty should fall by not less than 1455 points so the minimum target for nifty comes to 3720 which is nearly 1000 points from the current level. Generally the wave –C of the flat would be more violent of all the waves this giving an indication that if the assumption of flat is correct then we can see more violent market in the coming months which would be more violent than that of last year. At present it appears that the target mentioned is very difficult to achieve but if the market is forming is flat then we would surely achieve the same. Now comes the one of the difficult question of the time period, wave-A has taken 13 months and wave-B nearly 8 months which happens to be 61.8% of the time taken for wave-A so what should be the time to be taken by the Wave-C the time take by wave-C should be at-least 5 months from the start of the same the wave should run at-least upto march 2010. As as per this assumption we have minimum target of 3720 by at-least March 2010.
Now we proceed to look at the other option which is the triangle. And in my opinion we are forming this pattern i.e the triangle
Option – II the Triangle: The triangle is disclosed in the chart below

If the market is forming a triangle then we have all the chances of markets in a corrective mode at-least upto the end of the next year. And in this case if wave-B has completed at 5174 then I have no doubt the nifty would not move above 5000 at-least upto the end of the next year. If we are forming a triangle then the volumes would be decreasing as the time goes by and the volumes would be continually decreasing upto the end of the next year and all would lose interest in the market as market would move no where and once wave-E is completed then the market reacts with bang and we would go on to make a new high thereafter. In this scenario we can be sure that we would not see a new high at least for one to one and half year. This does not augur well for bulls but we have to live with it. The projected targets and the pattern is indicated in the circle in the chart. Now everybody would be wondering what would be the probable targets for the waves-C,D,E. One of the peculiar feature of the triangle is that market moves no where and it will just move in a band and here the band here appears to be around 2500 to 5000 i.e. nearly 2500 points. One of the pre-requisite of the triangle is that each successive wave will retrace at-least 50% of the previous wave and would take the same time i.e.50% of the time taken by the previous wave. It my be noted that wave –A is from 6357 to 2539 a fall of 3818 points and wave-B is from 2539 to 5174 a rise of 2635 points which is more that 50% of the wave –A so the first qualification is achieved. So if we assume the wave-B has completed 5174 then we would be seeing the market fall by at-least by 1350 points so the target for nifty again comes to some where around 3700-3800 levels. It may be noted that this is the minimum target which has to be achieved by the market thus giving an indication that further downsides from 3700 are not ruled out after completion of wave-C wave D would rise at-least by 50% and again wave-E would fall at-least by 50% of wave-D. So if we assume that each wave take only the bare minimum time then we can see nifty in this range for at-least 8 months from now so as generally the minimum targets generally exceeded I have no doubt that we would not enter any major bull market at-least before March 2011. In case of a triangle generally wave-E takes longer time and it would be most boring of all the waves. As if falls of lesser nor as far points are concerned by it takes more time thus making the market unattractive.
So as can be seen from the above that what ever may be the alternative we are in for a bad news for bulls. In both the options we are going to see more damage to stocks in coming months so considering this it would be better for us to take profits from the table and sit in cash and wait for a better opportunity to invest.
Directional Momentum Index:
As have been indicated in the previous weeks also DMI is indicating weakness for bulls and strength of the bears. DMI has been moving continually after negative break out i.e movement of –D1 over +D1 thus indicating the bears are gaining strength. DMI has moved from 24 last week to above 30 and now placed around 31 thus giving an indication that the down ward movement would increase over period of time. So DMI has to be watched carefully as this would give a clear indication as to whether bears are gaining strength or losing strength. So its pointing towards bad days for bears.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy:
I am not providing any table this time but I would be discussing the same nifty has moved as indicated in the table given last week. Nifty stayed below the pivot and moved towards S1 and then jumped towards pivot and reversed on just moving above the pivot. So for the current week the pivot is place at 4723 so any breach of the same would take the market towards 4611 and if it is broken then we have chances of seeing 4450 and if it stays above 4723 we have chances of seeing 4909 there after 5021. So you can trade accordingly:
Turtle Trading:
20 day phenomenon has given a sell indication at 4904.
Current trend - Sell
Go long above 5182
Square off – 5054
Go short below: 4538(add Positions).
ATR - 104

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 7th November 2009 time 17.35 IST
Trend is Friend.

Nifty weekly technical update for week ended 31st October 2009

Nifty Weekly Technical Update for week ended October 31st, 2009.
The worst fear which every body was not expecting has happened, but the followers of these weekly updates might not have been surprised as I have indicated last week only that we might have entered a corrective phase once the support line is violated. It appears now that we might have entered as corrective market after nearly eight month. Please note the correction has started in the eight month which happens to be a Fibonacci. This has happened so many times as market tends to corrective after entering the Fibonacci month or after completion of the Fibonacci. I have been seeing for the last so many years and most of the times the market has reacted on Fibonacci months, weeks or days. So we cannot ignore the same. Last week I have mentioned that all the –ve factors are increasing and that positive factors are decreasing and the correction is round the corner and the same seems to have happened. It may be noted that nifty has broken past so many crucial support levels they are 5000 4900 and have gone below the 4700 level and just closed above it. Nifty has closed in bearish candles for two consecutive weeks this has happened for the first time in the last eight months so this cannot be ignored and taken lightly. The following has happened in this week nifty has moved below the 15 day EMA low (only third time in eight times) it has moved below decisively below 50 day EMA (only second time in last eight months). Nifty has moved below the 50 day EMA at 4850 it moved below it on Thursday opened with gap up on Friday just touched the 50 day EMA and then tanked indicating that bears are having upper hand and they are willing to dominate the market in the time to come. As nifty has moved below 15 day EMA low we should take every rise as an opportunity to short till nifty moves above 15 day High EMA which happens to be at 4993. So till 4993 is taken out during the week we have all chances of nifty moving down. Nifty currently appears to be in a very very oversold and there are positive divergences in hourly chars for RSI, MACD etc., giving an indication that bulls might stage a come back during the week. The rise which we will be witnessing this week if does not move above the 15 day EMA high we would have excellent shorting opportunity. It may also be noted that all the major stocks which constitute nifty are trading below significant support levels and it appears that broder market appears to be weak.
Now we will see on weekly charts. Nifty has made a seven week low during the week this has happened for the first time in last eight months signifying the strength of the fall. On weekly chart both MACD and TRIX has given a sell signal during the week this is the first time that these have given a sell signal after December 2008 indicating that the broder market has turned weak and we might have started a down trend which has chances of lasting for atleast 3 months. These two indices have not given sell indication even during the largest correction during the post budget week. This gives a clear indication that we might has entered a corrective phase and who ever are long on the market have to take a decision to take profit or prepared to take loss other wise they will know that atleast 50% of their portfolio would be wiped off as the bears market take very less time but they fall very fast. In weekly charts DMI is moving down indicating clearly that bulls are becoming weak and also –D1 line is moving up and +D1 line is moving down indicating the bears are slowly coming into the market

It may be noted that nifty has breached 4900 and 4700 giving an indication that we might start a vicious bear market and it is advised to book profit as has been indicated last week. We can buy when ever once again market gives such indication. Till then we have to protect our principle as we will be in a position to buy when the market gives a reversal signal.

Positives for the market :
• Nifty is still above 100 day EMA.
Negative for market.
• The trend line drawn from march low is broken
• Nifty is below 15 day low EMA.
• -ve divergences still exists in oscillators – ROC, RSI, Elder bull ray
• Volumes are not still increasing.
• DMI has given a sell signal indicating the bears have just gained upper hand.
• On weekly charts TRIX and MACD are in buy mode and are just about to give a sell signal

Elliotte wave analysis: Eiliotte wave analysis and also targets for nifty in this correction i.e extent to which nifty would correct and the period for which nifty would correct if would furnish in my next weekly update. So wait for the same.
Directional Momentum Index:

DMI is has moved from around 23 to 25.78 after giving a sell indication clearly indicating that momentum is down and that the trend( current down) is gaining momentum.
Pivot point analysis:

Last week nifty has moved won as indicated. And as per pivot point analysis nifty has broken so many pivots indicating weakness. It can be seen from the above table that nifty has moved below the monthly pivot and also yearly previous pivot (4856) indicating that nifty has become weak and the down trend may continue. As per monthly pivot as nifty has moved below it the next support level is only at 4538 and as per yearly previous next support level is only at 3355( which appears to be impossible at this point of time but can be achieved.)

Turtle Trading:
Turtle Trading - 20 day Phenomenon (gave sell indication at 4904)
Current trend – sell
Go long above – 5182
Square off - 5182
Go short below: 4682
ATR at 90

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 1st November 2009 Time 7:10:40 PM IST.
Trend is friend

nifty techncial analysis for the week ended 24th October 2009.

Nifty Weekly Technical Update for week ended October 24th, 2009. 701804005
Nifty during the week opened on slightly strong note and there after became weak and was weak for the whole week and closed at 5997 a loss of nearly 150 points. The move during the week was significant on many effects. Nifty fell for continues four days which was the first time in the last eight months, nifty moved below the 15 day low EMA which is only third time during the last eight months. Another very very important thing is that nifty has broken a trend line drawn from the low of march indicating that the trend might have reversed. This is the first time in the last eight months that nifty has broken the trend line. All these have happened after negative divergences over months so this cannot be ignored and also it happened in the eight months which again happen to be a Fibonacci. So all these factors cannot be taken lightly. As has been mentioned above nifty has moved below 15 day low EMA which is at 5005 so now we have to see for an opportunity to short at every raise. In nifty move above that level the strategy should be reversed. Another important thing which should be noted is that with the fall of this week the buy indication in nifty has converted into sell signal which clearly indicates that trend has reversed. Now the important support for the nifty is around 4900 and also at the 50 day EMA which is at 4853. Nifty might take support at the 50 day EMA as earlier when ever nifty has gone below the 15 day low EMA it has taken support at the 50 day EMA and reversed with a vengeance. So we have to be watch full when ever nifty reaches the 50 day EMA level. Any breach of the 50 day EMA should be taken as an opportunity to come entirely into cash and try to short only and no other activity. Now we have to watch out for one important factor i.e. the faster retracement of nifty below 4600. It took 28 days for nifty to move from 4600 to 5176 and it should take more days to move below this to keep the uptrend intact so we have to keep a close watch of 4600 any breach of the same in less that 28 days would confirm the uptrend is over and also down trend has started. You might be thinking that whether I have to wait so long to take a decision on whether the trend has reversed or not. It is not the case but just see the higher highs and higher lows and vice versa. Till now nifty has been making higher highs and higher lows but we have to see whether in the raise which comes after the fall is going to make higher high or not. If it makes a higher high i.e if it moves above 5176 then we can be sure that the trend is intact but the rise does not take nifty above 5176 then we have formed a lower low which is the first indication of reversal and it would be confirmed when it makes a lower low. So keep a close watch on the movement on the same.

It may be noted that any breach of 4700 should be taken as an opportunity to come into cash no matter what the stock is as it will signal the end of the current Bull Run. Currently good support appears to be at 4900. In my view we should start booking profit once 4900 is violated.

Positives for the market :
• Nifty is still above 50 day EMA.
• On weekly charts TRIX and MACD are in buy mode and are just about to give a sell signal.
NegativeS for market.
• The trend line drawn from march low is broken
• Nifty is below 15 day low EMA.
• -ve divergences still exists in oscillators – ROC, RSI, Elder bull ray
• Volumes are not still increasing.
• DMI has given a sell signal indicating the bears have just gained upper hand.

It can be seen from the above that the –ve factors are increasing and positive factors are decreasing which is clearly indicating that indices are becoming week.

Elliott wave analysis:
In previous updates I have clearly indicated the wave structure and there appears to be no change to my wave structure so nothing new to mention in this week. As per elliotte wave structure I have given target of 5195 and 5520 and both targets are yet to be attained and we have chances of seeing at-least 5195 in near term if it is taken out then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 5520. during the week the high made by nifty was 5176which is just short of the 5195 by 20 points and started to move down this is not an good indication if this is the third wave failure then it indicates the weakness in the market and if third wave of higher wave has just started the we might see a larger cut in the market that every body is expecting. So better be carefully with the longs.

Directional Momentum Index:

DMI is has moved from around 27.04 to 23 but during the week it has moved by buy indication to sell indication i.e –D1 has moved up and +DMI has moved down and both are moving down which is clearly indicating that momentum is down and that the trend is neutral as all the three i.eDMI,+D1 and –D1 are moving down.
Pivot point analysis:

Pivot point for the nifty is at 5049 and nifty is below this indicating that the trend is atleast for the time being weak nifty has to move above this to indicate strength and any breach of the same on upper side has chances of taking it to 5129. if nifty fails to move above pivot then we have chances of seeing 4916 and if it is broken then 4836. so keep a close watch

Turtle Trading:
Turtle Trading - 20 day Phenomenon (gave buy indication at 4743)
Current trend – buy
Go long above – in buy mode
Square off - 4921
Go short below: 4904
ATR at 80

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 25th October 2009 Time 7:50:32 PM IST.
Trend is friend

nifty technical update as on 22 october 2009

This update is being given as nifty has just broken the trend line drawn from the low of the march which primarily indicates that the uptrend might have just ended. It may also be noted that this is the first time that nifty has continually fallen for 4 days in the last eight months. This clearly indicating that bears have slowely come into the market and we might see bears dominating the market in comming months. Generally when long term trend lines are broken then we generally see it continuing. Now bulls might make a last attempt to take markets higher and it appears that that would be the top of the market or the last pull back rally. it may also be noted that nifty has again went below 15 day EMA low which clearly indicating that bears are on proul. In my view it is the best time to come into cash and wait patiently for market reversal.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend.

Thursday 22nd October 2009 Tme 20.00 IST

Nifty Week technical update for week ended 18th October 2009

Nifty Weekly Technical Update for week ended September 18th, 2009.
Nifty opened strong during the week and maintained is upward journey and closed at highest point of the week. This shows clearly that bulls are in control of the market but it appears from the chart that the bulls have exhausted at-least for the very short period.The movement of nifty during the week was as anticipated and also as predicted. So we did not have any surprise action during the week. Nifty is maintaining itself above 15 day low EMA which is at 4977 which is clearly giving an indication that we are still in a uptrend and evey fall should be taken as an opportunity to go long. During the previous week nifty has taken support exactly at 15 day low EMA on previous week Friday and this week Monday onwards nifty has started to move up and made a new high. As I have been saying for the last seven months the 15 day low EMA has been acting as a good support level and it has been breached only twice and both the occasions’ nifty has rebounded with vengeance. So the trend to turn weak the nifty should close below 15 day low EMA decisively at-least for one week. So keep a watch on the same. One of the symptom which has been a concern for the last few months is that volumes have not bee supporting the break outs and this week was also not an exception. The rise for the current week was also was on low volumes indicating that majority of the players are now supporting the rise or valuations.
As per Fibonacci we have just completing 7 months and now we are into the 8th months. And as per Fibonacci we have chances of market correcting at the end of the eight month or just after completing it. So we have to be watch full.

It may be noted that any breach of 4700 should be taken as an opportunity to come into cash no matter what the stock is as it will signal the end of the current bull run. Currently good support appears to be at 4900. In my view we should start booking profit once 4900 is violated.

Positives for the market
• Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA and 50 day EMA.
• DMI is moving up on weekly charts.
• The trend line of the rise is still intact.
Negative for market.
• -ve divergances still exists in oscillators – ROC, RSI, Elder bull ray
• Volumes are not still increasing.
• DMI is moving down on daily charts giving an indication that bulls are becoming weak.

Elliott wave analysis:
Last week I have clearly indicated the wave structure and there appears to be no change to my wave structure so nothing new to mention in this week. As per elliotte wave structure I have given target of 5195 and 5520 and both targets are yet to be attained and we have chances of seeing at-least 5195 in near term if it is taken out then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 5520. during the week the high made by nifty was 5152 which is just short of the 5195 by 40 points we have to see whether it will be attained or not. But in my view we have all the chances of seeing 5195. so better watch out.
Directional Momentum Index:

DMI is has moved from around 27.48 to 27.04 after giving a positing buy indication i.e. movement of +D1 over –D1 and also +D1 is moving down and –D1 is moving up indicating that bears are slowly becoming active. After moving above 30 DMI has again moved below 30 this is not a good news for bulls. It is clearly giving an indication that even though bulls have upper hand now they are clearly loosing ground.

Pivot point analysis:

Nifty has moved exactly as per my last week’s indication. Nifty moved above 4981 pivot point and then rose and moved above the R1 and also R2. But for the current week the pivot is at 4080 and nifty is above it indicating strength but as nifty is showing some weakness we might see nifty moving towards pivot of S1. for the current week the range appears to be beween 5007 and 5214. if nifty fails to move above 5175 during early part of the coming week then we have all the chances of seeing 5080.

Turtle Trading:
Turtle Trading - 20 day Phenomenon (gave buy indication at 4743)
Current trend – buy
Go long above – in buy mode
Square off - 4921
Go short below: 4895
ATR at 85

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 18th October 2009 Time 7:11:20 PM IST.
Trend is friend

nifty weekly Technical update for week ended 10th October 2009.

Nifty Weekly Technical Update for week ended September 10th, 2009.
Nifty opened weak during the week and continued to move down and finally closed at lowest point of the week. Out of five days nifty closed three days above 5000 and two days below 5000. This is clearly indicating that there is tremendous fight going between bulls and bears and who ever wins there will be big movement in that side. So keeps a close watch as we have a very good profit opportunity waiting for us. Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA which is at 4926.Nifty has violated the 15 day low EMA only twice in the last seven months showing the strength of the support. And also nifty is above the 50 day EMA which is at 4752. During the last seven months 50 day EMA has been violated only for three days giving the strength of support. So now we are closely at these averages. So presently 4926 and 4752 become very important support levels the violation of the second support level will indicated that the current Bull Run might have ended. Once nifty moves below 4926 then we should take an opportunity to short every rise till the 15 day EMA is violated on higher side. So this week is going to be very crucial week for deciding the fate of the bulls. One point may be noted is that nifty has closed below the low of the earlier week. During the previous week the low was at 4959 and nifty closed below it at 4945 during the current week. Such an event has happened only twice during the last seven months and this is the third such event. So better watch out. As per Fibonacci we are just completing 7 months and during the coming week we will be entering the 8th months. And as per Fibonacci we have chances of market correcting at the end of the eight month or just after completing it. So we have to be watch full.

It may be noted that any breach of 4700 should be taken as an opportunity to come into cash no matter what the stock is as it will signal the end of the current bull run.

Positives for the market
• Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA and 50 day EMA.
• DMI is moving up on weekly charts.
• The trend line of the rise is still intact.
Negative for market.
• -ve divergances still exists in oscillators – ROC, RSI, Elder bull ray
• Volumes are not still increasing.
• DMI is moving down on daily charts giving an indication that bulls are becoming weak.
Elliott wave analysis:

Last week I have clearly indicated the wave structure and there appears to be no change to my wave structure so nothing new to mention in this week. As per elliotte wave structure I have given target of 5195 and 5520 and both targets are yet to be attained and we have chances of seeing at-least 5195 in near term if it is taken out then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 5520. So watch accordingly.

Directional Momentum Index:

DMI is has moved from around 31.50 to 27.48 after giving a positing buy indication i.e. movement of +D1 over –D1 and also +D1 is moving down and –D1 is moving up indicating that bears are slowly becoming active. After moving above 30 DMI has again moved below 30 this is not a good news for bulls. It is clearly giving an indication that even though bulls have upper hand now they are clearly loosing ground.
Pivot point analysis:

Nifty has moved exactly as per my last weeks indication. Nifty moved below the 5051 pivot point and then fell down and also moved below the S1 and is moving towards S2. but for the current week the pivot is at 4981 and nifty is below it indicating weakness and also chances of moving towards 4885 if nifty bounces from 4885 then we have chances of seeing 5041. so the range for the coming weeks should be 4825 and 5041
Turtle Trading:
Turtle Trading - 20 day Phenomenon (gave buy indication at 4743)
Current trend – buy
Go long above – in buy mode
Square off - 4904
Go short below: 4784
ATR at 80

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 11th October 2009 Time 6:47:20 PM IST.
Trend is friend