Thursday, October 28, 2010
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Monday, October 25, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Weekly Technicals
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 23rd October 2010.
During the week nifty opened on a weak note and there after drifted further down and there after recovered somewhat and close on a weak note only. But still nifty is above 5932 during the week nifty made a low of 5966 indicating that bulls were able to defend their support levels unless and otherwise nifty breaks 5932 there should be no hopes for bears. This is the third successive week where in nifty has closed with a red candle this is the first time that nifty has closed with three successive red candles after February 2010, the only difference between the two was that nifty has fallen very steeply during that period and this time the correction was very less thus giving an indication that bulls are defending their territory which is bad news for bears. Nifties highest close during this year was 6143 so unless and other wise nifty closes above that bulls would not gain strength any move and close above 6284( this also happens to be all time highest close) the bulls would be on rampage and would find some resistance at the all time high of 6357. So for bears to gain strength the they should see for movement below 5932 and bulls should see for close above 5284 so now the range appears to be between 5932 to 5284 and any break on either side should be watched carefully as trend would set in that direction.
On time series analysis we have completed 22 weeks and nifty is still not broken any crucial support levels indicating that there appears to be some amount of surprise on up side left in the market. If nifty goes on to make a new high during coming one to two weeks then we have all the probable chances of seeing the market raising towards next Fibonacci of 34 which happens to be another 12 weeks away and another three moths. If we see historically market has risen for more that 21 weeks in succession only twice in the last seven years, and in each of these cases markets have made significant tops which were not broken easily. So whether this time also market would move up towards the next Fibonacci of 34 we have to wait and watch.
As on lower wave structure- time period nifty has indicated that it has fair chances of raising for another 12 weeks. We would see the monthly chart also to see what it tells on the larger time frame, as generally larger time frame prevails over the shorter time frame. On the monthly chart we are about to complete 20 months and we will be entering into 21st month from November onwards. So we would be completing 21 months by November end which gives an indication that we might top somewhere in December or January 2011. If seen historically from the start of this bull run i.e. from 2003 onwards markets have not risen continually for more that 21 months in a stretch. Only higher no of months which it has rise was 20 months in January 2008. So whether market would break the trend and move ahead we have to wait and see. But as per Fibonacci it appears that we are nearing crucial Fibonacci time periods and we have to be watch full in these time periods and reversal indication by the market has to be respected and not carried away by euphoria of the market. Generally towards this end of the period market reach the euphoric which it has not happened till now, but we might see in the coming two months. So keep a watch of reversal if any given by the market.
During the week nifty opened on a weak note and there after drifted further down and there after recovered somewhat and close on a weak note only. But still nifty is above 5932 during the week nifty made a low of 5966 indicating that bulls were able to defend their support levels unless and otherwise nifty breaks 5932 there should be no hopes for bears. This is the third successive week where in nifty has closed with a red candle this is the first time that nifty has closed with three successive red candles after February 2010, the only difference between the two was that nifty has fallen very steeply during that period and this time the correction was very less thus giving an indication that bulls are defending their territory which is bad news for bears. Nifties highest close during this year was 6143 so unless and other wise nifty closes above that bulls would not gain strength any move and close above 6284( this also happens to be all time highest close) the bulls would be on rampage and would find some resistance at the all time high of 6357. So for bears to gain strength the they should see for movement below 5932 and bulls should see for close above 5284 so now the range appears to be between 5932 to 5284 and any break on either side should be watched carefully as trend would set in that direction.
On time series analysis we have completed 22 weeks and nifty is still not broken any crucial support levels indicating that there appears to be some amount of surprise on up side left in the market. If nifty goes on to make a new high during coming one to two weeks then we have all the probable chances of seeing the market raising towards next Fibonacci of 34 which happens to be another 12 weeks away and another three moths. If we see historically market has risen for more that 21 weeks in succession only twice in the last seven years, and in each of these cases markets have made significant tops which were not broken easily. So whether this time also market would move up towards the next Fibonacci of 34 we have to wait and watch.
As on lower wave structure- time period nifty has indicated that it has fair chances of raising for another 12 weeks. We would see the monthly chart also to see what it tells on the larger time frame, as generally larger time frame prevails over the shorter time frame. On the monthly chart we are about to complete 20 months and we will be entering into 21st month from November onwards. So we would be completing 21 months by November end which gives an indication that we might top somewhere in December or January 2011. If seen historically from the start of this bull run i.e. from 2003 onwards markets have not risen continually for more that 21 months in a stretch. Only higher no of months which it has rise was 20 months in January 2008. So whether market would break the trend and move ahead we have to wait and see. But as per Fibonacci it appears that we are nearing crucial Fibonacci time periods and we have to be watch full in these time periods and reversal indication by the market has to be respected and not carried away by euphoria of the market. Generally towards this end of the period market reach the euphoric which it has not happened till now, but we might see in the coming two months. So keep a watch of reversal if any given by the market.
It can be seen from the chart that nifty is finding exactly at the 15 week EMA and every time it has touched the EMA it has bounced with vengeance so for the longer time frame we can keep a close watch on the 15 week EMA and any close of the market below it would be take as a warning sign. 15 week EMA happens to be around 5800 levels so we have not problem for bulls till 5800 is held, any weekly close decisively below it would be warning bells to the ears of bulls. So keep a close watch on the 15 week EMA. Every time it is touching it, it is proving a very good entry points.
Positives for Nifty:
§ Market is above 200 day EMA.
§ Market is above 50 day or 100 day EMA.
§ Weekly MACD is in a buy mode.
§ Weekly RSI is at around 80 levels indicating over bought levels.
§ + D1 as moved above -D1 indicating that bulls have gained upper hand. Weekly DMI is moving higher and has now moved above 20 presently at 28 indicating that on weekly basis the markets are gaining upper hand and any correction should be taken as an opportunity to go long in the market.
§ Daily stochastic has gone to over sold region and has just given a buy signal and is moving up.
Negatives for nifty:
§ Nifty is below 15 day EMA.
§ Weekly stochastic is also in sell mode.
§ Daily MACD is in sell mode and is moving down.
Elliott wave analysis:
There is not much change as per elliotte wave analysis and would post updates when there occur any change in the structure.
Directional Momentum index:
+D1 is above –D1 but is now moving down and –D1 is moving up indicating weakening of bulls which is also indicated by downward movement of DMI from 46 to 35 So we might see some pressure on the bulls in the coming one to two weeks.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 24th October 2010, Time 19.12 IST
Trend is friend
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Monday, October 18, 2010
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Nifty Weekly
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 16th October 2010.
During the week nifty moved nowhere it opened on a weak note continued to be so and on Wednesday there was a huge green candle which made a 52 week high and on next day it opened on a strong note moved up and there after collapsed and on Friday we have seen a complete sell off, thus giving an indication that bulls are loosing ground and bears are gaining upper hand at-least for the short term. Nifty has very good support at around 5950 levels especially at 5932 any break of 5932 would take market down at faster rate. But one thing is sure till the market is above 5350 there should not be any problem for the bulls. Till it is above it we might see markets making new highs once the down ward pressure is gone. But once 5350 is broken the bulls would run for cover. Technically it appears that we might have entered into very short term weakness and after that we might see markets moving up and making a new highs. So till 5932 holds there should not be any problem for bulls in short term on for the up trend it is 5350. So better watch out for these levels.
One of the features of the current move is that this week was that this week also the market closed with a red candle indicating the bears were successful in taking the market down. This is the second consecutive week where in the market closed with red candle. Another feature which is of very important is the for the first time the market has formed a lower low after nearly one and half months indicating the bears were able to push the market to lower levels, below the previous lows. As on EOD basis we have see the markets being pushed below the previous low does indicate the we might see further down wards before the bulls gain upper hand probably at around 5932 levels. As of not 5932 is the very crucial level.
Another point to be noted is that as per time series analysis we have completed 21 weeks of continues rise which happens to be Fibonacci and market have exactly started to move down after forming a new high thus indicating that we might see further down sides at-least for short term. This the first time that market has closed consecutively for two weeks with red candles and also closed at two weeks low thus again giving an indication that we are in very short term down trend after which we might again start out journey upwards.
In my last weeks update I have indicated that we have broken the nearly 6 weeks support line and also that we have to get confirmation of the same and this week the market went up touched the trend line and there after started to move down. This is the perfect technical set up and this is giving an indication that bulls are finding it difficult to take the market up and in my view we can see market drifting towards 4932 levels.
During the week nifty moved nowhere it opened on a weak note continued to be so and on Wednesday there was a huge green candle which made a 52 week high and on next day it opened on a strong note moved up and there after collapsed and on Friday we have seen a complete sell off, thus giving an indication that bulls are loosing ground and bears are gaining upper hand at-least for the short term. Nifty has very good support at around 5950 levels especially at 5932 any break of 5932 would take market down at faster rate. But one thing is sure till the market is above 5350 there should not be any problem for the bulls. Till it is above it we might see markets making new highs once the down ward pressure is gone. But once 5350 is broken the bulls would run for cover. Technically it appears that we might have entered into very short term weakness and after that we might see markets moving up and making a new highs. So till 5932 holds there should not be any problem for bulls in short term on for the up trend it is 5350. So better watch out for these levels.
One of the features of the current move is that this week was that this week also the market closed with a red candle indicating the bears were successful in taking the market down. This is the second consecutive week where in the market closed with red candle. Another feature which is of very important is the for the first time the market has formed a lower low after nearly one and half months indicating the bears were able to push the market to lower levels, below the previous lows. As on EOD basis we have see the markets being pushed below the previous low does indicate the we might see further down wards before the bulls gain upper hand probably at around 5932 levels. As of not 5932 is the very crucial level.
Another point to be noted is that as per time series analysis we have completed 21 weeks of continues rise which happens to be Fibonacci and market have exactly started to move down after forming a new high thus indicating that we might see further down sides at-least for short term. This the first time that market has closed consecutively for two weeks with red candles and also closed at two weeks low thus again giving an indication that we are in very short term down trend after which we might again start out journey upwards.
In my last weeks update I have indicated that we have broken the nearly 6 weeks support line and also that we have to get confirmation of the same and this week the market went up touched the trend line and there after started to move down. This is the perfect technical set up and this is giving an indication that bulls are finding it difficult to take the market up and in my view we can see market drifting towards 4932 levels.
Positives for Nifty:§ Market is above 200 day EMA.
§ Market is above 50 day or 100 day EMA.
§ Weekly MACD is in a buy mode.
§ Weekly RSI is at around 80 levels indicating over bought levels.
§ + D1 as moved above -D1 indicating that bulls have gained upper hand. Weekly DMI is moving higher and has now moved above 20 presently at 24 indicating that on weekly basis the markets are gaining upper hand and any correction should be taken as an opportunity to go long in the market.
Negatives for nifty:
§ Daily stochastic is in over bought zone and has given a sell signal and moving down, and Weekly stochastic is also in sell mode.
§ The rise is on –ve divergences with MACD histogram and also RSI.
§ Daily MACD is in sell mode and is moving down.
§ Daily stochastic oscillator is in sell mode and is moving down.
§ Weekly Stochastic Oscillator is in sell mode.
Elliotte Wave Analysis:
The Elliot wave break down of the wave, from the start .i.e. from 4786 till now is given above. As of now all the waves are fitting in place. The wave structure might change on further movement of the market. it appear from the above that the 5th wave appears to be the longest. If the fifth is the longest it denotes that the 5th wave extended. And the fifth wave is the extended the 5th wave of the 5th should also be extended. If the 5th wave is extended then the length of the fifty wave would be at-least the total length of the 1 to 3rd wave added to the end of the 4th wave. Here on higher note the length of 1st to 3rd happens to be 667 points. So the 5th wave should be at-least 667 points from the end of the 4th wave which happens to be at 5348 so the minimum target of the fifth wave is 6015, the market has moved above it so the next target should be around 161.8% which happens to be around 6427(a new high) and the maximum length of the 5th wave cannot exceed beyond 261.8% so the maximum target should be 7094, not a one point more.
Now we proceed to study the pattern in lower structure. The wave-v started from 5348 and the break up is given in the above chart and if we assume that the 5th wave is extended then the 5th of the 5th should also be extended. Here if the 5th is extended it should be at-least of length of 1to 3rd wave. The length of 1 to 3rd wave is around 684 points so the length of the 5th wave should be of length 684 points from end of 4th wave( which is at 5932) so the minimum target should be 6616 whether we achieve the target or not only market would tell. In lower wave structure if the market moves below 5932 this would not hold good and I have to alter the wave structure which I would do when the event happens. Till then this wave structure holds good.
Directional Momentum index:
+D1 is above –D1 and is moving up and also DMI is place at above 40 at 46 so we might see very very swift movement in the market. Also DMI has moved above +D1 indicating that bulls are gaining in confidence and we can see healthy movement in coming weeks. One negative feature of the DMI this week is the +D1 is moving down and –D1 is moving up and also DMI is moving down which does not augur well for the bulls. So we might see some pressure on the bulls in the coming one to two weeks.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 17th October 2010, Time 19.27 IST
Trend is friend
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Monday, October 11, 2010
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Weekly Technicals
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 9th October 2010.
Nifty opened on a strong note and there after moved up and made a new 52 week high at 6223 and there after started to move down and closed at 6103 virtually at the low of the week. After nearly five weeks of continuous rise nifty has formed a black candle on weekly charts. This is indicating weakness, but bulls would not have any problem till 5900 is held. Technically not much has not happened during the week but we would try to analyse the same. By this week we have completed 20 weeks continues rise from the lows of around 4700 levels. As per Fibonacci we still have one week left for the market to reverse. As has been indicated earlier we have completed 19 months of continues rise by September and we are on our way to complete next Fibonacci of 21, so we have all chances of market rising for another month excluding this month of October. As per this we are into a market top somewhere in end of December and January 2011.Historically January tops are not good signs for bulls we have to see whether the market tops during this time also or not. So keep a close watch from December end to January 2011 end.
i have indicted last week that market in its entire rise from march 2009 has not closed at two months low which indicates that when ever this happens bulls would have difficult time to hold so till that time bulls need not worry and the market would continue to move up. Please not that it should be two months low close and not two months low. The point which ahs to be noted that when ever this happens it would be fast and swift and it would not give any time for us to apprehend but we have to be watch full every time.
It can be seen from the above chart that nifty has broken the one and half months trend line. Market has to immediately move above this trend line otherwise it has chances of moving towards 6000 levels and there after make an attempt to make a new high. It appears the markets would try to make a new high by the time of Diwali. We cannot say anything sure about the market but it appears to be so.
§ Market is above 200 day EMA.
§ Market is above 50 day or 100 day EMA.
§ Weekly MACD is in a buy mode.
§ Weekly RSI is at around 80 levels indicating over bought levels.
§ + D1 as moved above -D1 indicating that bulls have gained upper hand. Weekly DMI is moving higher and has not moved above 20 presently at 24 indicating that on weekly basis the markets are gaining upper hand and any correction should be taken as an opportunity to go long in the market.
Negatives for nifty:
§ Daily stochastic is in over bought zone and has given a sell signal and moving down, and Weekly stochastic is also in sell mode.
§ The rise is on –ve divergences with MACD histogram and also RSI.
Directional Momentum index:
+D1 is above –D1 and is moving up and also DMI is place at above 43 so we might see very very swift movement in the market. Also DMI has moved above +D1 indicating that bulls are gaining in confidence and we can see healthy movement in coming weeks.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 10th October 2010, Time 18.37 IST
Trend is friend
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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