Reliance Infrastructure - Rs.1131

Reliance Infrastructure (RI) Rs.1131/- seems to have just given an upward momentum and it appears that the mometum might sustain. Over the period of last two months RI has taken support at 200 day EMA atleast three times indicated by blue arrows. All the three times it briefrly moved below the 200 day EMA and just bounced back. In the current situation it has formed three white candles after taking support at the 200 day EMA. So all this pointing towards a good upward movement in the stock. There is convergence of the MAs 15,50,100,200 and the stock has moved above those in the last one week indicating that more upsides are not ruled out. if it is able to move past 1200 then i have no doubt that it would move near the 1400 target. so trade accordingly. Even the DMI which shows the strength of the move is above 20 at 22 but movind down once it starts to move up the stock would rocket.Stop Loss can be safely put at 200 day EMA Rs.1053/-

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 26th Dec 2009.

Nifty Technical update for week ended 26th December 2009:
Nifty opened on weak note with –ve closing on Monday and there after bulls took charge of the market and on 23rd they took full control of the market where in nifty rose nearly 150 points there by decimating bears and nifty rose by nearly 150 points on that day and also followed it up on Thursday to touch a high of 5197 and there after closing at 5178 which happens to be highest closing after may 2008.After nearly two and half months nifty was able to move above 5180 and touch 5197 but it did not close above 5180, but closed at the highest point in recent times. I have been mentioning from last two to three months that nifty has formidable resistance at 5195 and till now nifty has not closed above that figure even though moved above it. It stayed above 5195 only for very short period of time but we should take that we have reached 5195. Any close of nifty above 5195 would indicate that nifty would make an attempt to touch 5520 balance is mentioned elliotte wave analysis below. One of the good news for bulls is that nifty has taken support exactly at 50 day EMA and then there after rebounded with vengeance to make a new high. This clearly indicates that bulls are still giving support to the market a the lower levels. During the week nifty has moved above 15 day EMA indicating that bulls have taken upper hand in the market giving an indication that all the fall should be taken as an opportunity to go long. 15 day EMA is at 5069 so till nifty is above this we would take every rise as an opportunity to go long. So trade accordingly

It can be seen from the above chart of nifty that nifty is continually making a higher low (indicated by blue arrows) this clearly indicating that bulls are still in control of the market. This phenomenon is clearly indicating that bulls are still in control of the market. Currently we have to wait for nifty/markets to make a lower low for confirmation of end of the up move and start of the bear phase till then we can safely assume that we bull run is still continuing. From the last few weeks I have been clearly indicating that the lower support line is giving good support for the market and this time also it has held indicating that this support line is very crucial for the bulls. The day it is broken it would confirm the down trend. So keep a close watch on the same. It may also be noted that 50 day EMA is offering very good support for the market for the last 10 months so this also forms a good support for the market so these are the two things which has to be keenly watched. The 50 day EMA is at 5002 and the support line is at around 4950. so these are the two levels which are to be closely watched.
As per Fibonacci we have completed 9 months and we are into 10th month of rise and generally speaking we should rise upto 13th month which happens to be March 2010. Strightly speaking nifty should be raising upto March 2010. But one point to be noted is that generally markets or stocks correct in the 11th month also. This I have seen so many times so we have to be on watch out for the 11th month also. But what ever may be the case we can wait for the market to make a lower high and also lower low for confirmation of down trend.

Positive for nifty:
• It is still at 15 day,50 day and above 100 day EMA
• RSI has once again moved above 50.
• DMI has given a buy signal – but DMI has to move above 20 to confirm the trend.
Negatives for nifty:
• OBV has broken the trend line.
• Weekly MACD and TRIX have given sell signal.
• Huge –ve divergence between RSI on weekly and daily charts.
• DMI is moving down.
• Daily MACD and TRIX are in sell mode
It can be seen from the above that –ve are decreasing and positives are increasing indicating that bullish sentiment is increasing in the market.
Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. This week the +D1 line is above the -D1 line and DMI is in neutral zone. During the week DMI has stayed around 15 only for whole of the week indicating directionless for the market. During the week it has indicated that bulls are having upper hand and the strength of the bulls is not being indicated by rise of DMI as DMI was stationary.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy:
During the last week market has moved exactly as per pivot it has stayed below pivot in the beginning part of the week and made a low of 4943(which is near the S1 which was at 4925) and there after moved above the pivot at 5041 and moved above the R1 at 5102 and towards 5218(nifty made a high of 5198). It can be seen from the pivot that pivots is giving a very good trading opportunity and if trade is made with straight stop loss we can make good amount of profit. For the coming week pivot is around 5113 if nifty stays above that then we have chances of moving towards 5282 and 5367. If it breaks below the pivot it can move towards at-least 5028 and 4859

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 27th December 2009 Time 18.40 IST
Trend is Friend.

nifty update as per Gann

As per the gann fanns the next support appears to be at around 4850. As per gann lines as the market is weak we might not be surprised even if the market goes there. if it goes there any body who is short should protect his profits. as per this the resistance is around 5020. So watch for 4850.
M.Sri Mahidra
Trend is Friend.

Lanco Infratech Limited - Rs.535

Lanco Infratech Limited.-Rs.535/-

Lanco Infratech Limited is now exactly positioned at the six months trend line where it has been taking support for the last five(fibonacci) months. It has taken support atleast twice at the trend line. Now it is placed exactly at that so we have to wait and see whether it breaks the same or not we have to see. If it breaks Rs.525/- then it would break the trend line and also the trend for the last five months -probably the up trend. So if any body is short be carefull or wait for the confirmation to go short.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend.

Nifty Weekly technical update ween ended 18th Dec 2009

Nifty Technical update for week ended 18th December 2009:
Nifty opened on a weak note and continues to fall all through the week and virtually closed at the low of the week. One of the significant events during the week is that the markets have gone below the 15 day EMA and also just gone below the 50 day EMA but closed exactly at the 50 day EMA. Next weeks opening is very important as any breach of 50 day EMA has all the chances of taking the market towards 4811 levels which happens to be the 100 day EMA. If nifty is able to sustain above the 50 day EMA then it has all the chances of moving towards 5100 levels before plunging. As nifty has gone below the 15 day EMA now we should see every rise as an opportunity to short. 15 day EMA is placed at 5061 so this not becomes lakshmanrekha for nifty any break of the same on the upper side we should reverse our position from short to long. During the last 9 months nifty has gone below the 50 day EMA twice and then recovered there after and one time take support exactly at the 50 day MA and then went on to make a new high. This is the first time that nifty has moved above 50 day EMA after moving below it and has not made a new high. Is this a possible indication of reversal? So please keep a close watch on the movement of nifty in early part of the week as this might give us an indication of what is in store for the coming week and also the month. One positive thing for the bulls is that the volumes are not increasing along with the fall once the volumes start increasing with the fall then we might see the real fall. But as of not it is not indicating increasing in volumes which is giving an indication that the market might not fall at the faster rate. But it appears that every body is waiting for technical levels to be breached before making a short sell. The put call ration which is the short term indicator of the trend is not placed around 1.10 indicating puts are just move that the calls and just at the walls. The PCR has been continually decreasing during the whole entire week indicating while market was falling every body is buying calls or are closing puts thus giving a clear indication that the upside might be capped at around 5100-5200 levels as of now and if PCR is to be believed the we might not see market breaching 5200 atleast in this month.
it can be seen from the above chart that nifty has broken the one and half months trend line that too on slightly higher volumes, making us to believe that it’s a true break out. If this is true then we might move towards the next support level which happens to be 100 day EMA and also the 5 month trend line which are situated at around 4811 and 4880. So it appears that the fall may be arrested at these levels and any breach of these would be catastrophic for the bulls and bears might just gain a tremendous upper hand on the market and we might see a free fall up to 4500 levels. Till now market has even though formed a lower high it has not formed a lower bottom for confirmation of the end of the up trend. If nifty closes below 4500 then it would confirm the lower bottom which would be sufficient to indicate that the bears have successfully conquered bulls. So just wait for 4500 to be breached before jumping into the market in big.

One of the concerns which I have not till now indicated is that if you could notice in the above chart rounded top formation which is forming from last 40 days. Generally the rounded top formation is one of the power full reversal indications. Now volumes have to confirm. It means if the volumes increase along with the fall this would confirm the formation of the rounded top. So we have to keep a close watch on volumes.

ON Balance Volume:

On balance volume (OBV) one of the power full indicators which generally indicate the reversal of the trend has just given an indication of reversal. The trend line which it has bee respecting from may 2009 after election till the last fall has broken indicating the trend might have been reversed. When ever nifty has fell OBV has taken support at the trend line but this time during early fall the OBV has broken the trend line clearly indicating that we might have just seen the top.

It can be seen from the above chart the in the month of march when the market has reversed this has been confirmed by break of down ward sloping trend line drawn from the top of 2008 of OBV and you see markets have risen from those levels. This time exactly reversal has happened indicating that we might have reversed the up trend. If this has to be believed I have no doubt that market is going to move below November low sooner that later. So OBV is indicating bulls beware.

Positive for nifty:
• It is still at 50 day and above 100 day EMA
Negatives for nifty:
• Volumes are increasing with the every fall
• OBV has broken the trend line.
• RSI has moved below 50.
• Weekly MACD and TRIX have given sell signal.
• Huge –ve divergence between RSI on weekly and daily charts.
• DMI is moving down.
• DMI has given a sell signal – but DMI has to move above 20 to confirm the trend.
• Daily MACD and TRIX are in sell mode.

Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. This week also the –D1 line is above the +D1 line and DMI is in neutral zone. It has moved from 11.64 levels to around 13.24 levels during the weak which is clearly indicating that bears are slowly gaining upper hand and that down ward momentum is gaining upper hand. Keep a close watch if DMI moves above 16 it would indicate that bears are in for a party in the coming weeks/months.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy: During the last week market has moved exactly as per pivot it has moved above the pivot reached a high of 5156 then moved below the pivot and pierced the S1 and has exactly closed at S2. For the Coming week weekly pivot is placed at 5041 and if nifty stays below it during the week then we can see 4925 and then 4864. It may be noted that any breach of 4903 it would break the monthly pivot in that case we might see further downsides in the market. So keep a close watch on weekly/monthly pivots.

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 20th December 2009 Time 19.10 IST
Trend is Friend.

Bank nifty

Bank nifty has broke the nine months trend line and also broken below the 15 day EMA which is at 9179 and closed at 8996 which is clearly giving an indication that bank nifty has become and bears are taking upper hand. It may be noted that the 50 day EMA is at 8911 and any break below that has chances of taking bankek towards 8200 levels. it may also be noted that during the last nine months bank nifty has taken support of 50 day EMA three times giving an indication that it should be closely watched when it approaches 50 day EMA. so keep a close watch we may get a good trading opportunit at that level.

14th December - 11.07 PM IST.

M.Sri Mahidar

Tren is Friend -

Nifty weekly technical update 12th Dec 2009.

Nifty Technical update for week ended 12th December 2009
Nifty movement during the week was very boring as nothing seems to have happened during the week and nifty moved nowhere. It was stuck in 100 point range from 5070 to 5180. This week also nifty moved or touched 5180 and then started to moved down and corrected. During the last one and half months this is the fourth time that nifty has failed to move above the 5180 level and all those times nifty has tanked immediately after testing the level, thus giving a clear indication that 5180 has now becoming a formidable resistance for the nifty. So it appears that unless and other wise nifty closes above 5200 no longs should be entered. Even if shorts are entered they should be closed on movement of nifty above 5200 level. Nifty is still maintaining above the 15 day EMA which is at 5085 and till it is above that level we can thing of entering long only and not short. If nifty moves below the 15 day EMA then we can thing of shorting nifty. Whole through the week nifty has taken support at the 15 day EMA at-least thrice thus giving us an indication that nifty is finding support exactly at the 15 day EMA so nifty is stuck between the 15 day EMA and 5180 any move on either side might result in nifty moving in that direction by at least 200 to 300 points. You are advised to trade accordingly. It is better to wait for break out on either side before initiating any trade.
On weekly chart nifty has failed to move above the previous weeks high indicating that the indices might be becoming weak. This weeks low is at 5051 any movement of nifty below that would result in violent fall in nifty so any move below will signal strength of the bears.
One of the noticing features of movement of nifty is that as nifty was trying to make a new up and make a high, Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been moving down and making a –ve divergence. RSI is not placed at 54 and any move below 50 would strengthen the bears.

It may appears to you that I want the market to go down, it is not the case all the technical indicators are pointing towards the same but market is not confirming the same. So we have to wait till the market confirms, till that time as is the case follow the trend.
Positive for nifty:
• It is still above 15 day, 50 day and 100 day EMA
Negatives for nifty:
• Volumes are increasing with the every fall
• Weekly MACD and TRIX have given sell signal.
• Huge –ve divergence between RSI on weekly and daily charts.
• DMI is moving down.
• DMI has given a sell signal – but DMI has to move above 20 to confirm the trend.
• Daily MACD and TRIX are in sell mode.
Elliotte wave analysis:
During last few weeks it has been indicated that, 5195 and 5520 are the targets which have to be broken, I have also indicated that if nifty fails to move above 5195 and then we have chances of nifty moving towards the low of November. It has gone near 5195 twice during last one week and thrice during last one and half months giving an indication the 5195 offers a formidable resistance. As nifty has once again failed (fourth time) to move above 5195 we have all chances of seen 4500 in near future.
Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. This week also the –D1 line is above the +D1 line and DMI is moving down wards, it has moved from 14 levels to around 12 levels during the weak which is clearly indicating that the market is directionless and calls should be taken only when DMI give an indication of strength in that direction. Till that time it is better for us to wait patiently. Even though market has moved during the week –D1 is maintaining above +D1 giving an indication that bears are still having slight upper hand but are failing to take control over the market, which is clearly indicated by the down ward movement of DMI.

Pivot Point Trading Strategy:

Last week, during the whole week nifty stayed above the pivot point and went near the week R1 of 5212 and then reversed towards pivot. For the current week Pivot is placed at 5117 and nifty is exactly placed at that level. Any move below that would open gates towards 5051 and there after 4986. and any move above it would pave way for 5182.

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 13th December 2009 Time 19.24 IST
Trend is Friend.

Praj Industries Limited - triangle break out.

It can be seen from the above chart that praj industries Lld- Rs.99 has just broken out of the triangle pattern. it appears that the triangle has formed over a period of 8 months( fibonacci again) and has just given a break out of the trend line. please see the volumes on break out also which appears to be very very huge suggesting that the break out may be genuine and we might see further upsides in the stock. Fundamentally the stock needs no introduction so the stock appears to be good technical buy. As ususal stop loss: below Rs.85.


M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is friend.

Nifty weekly technical update for week ended 5th December 2009.

Nifty Technical update for week ended December 2009
Nifty opened on a strong note continued to move up during whole of the week except on Friday it closed on a negative note. Last week I have indicated in my weekly update that the long tail formed on Friday the 26th Nov was not good for bears and that the bulls might gain upper hand at-least for the short term and the same appears to have happened during the week. Nifty is still above the 15 day EMA which clearly is giving an indication that we should see an opportunity to go long on every fall. 15 day EMA is at 5055 and any move below this should be taken as an opportunity to short. So please keep a close watch on this as this is very near to the weekly close of 5108. This week also nifty has went up near the previous top and then reversed. It went up above 5151 and towards previous high at 5181 and then reversed towards 5100 level. It failed to close above 5150 precisely above 5200 levels for the third time in last one and half month and also twice in last week, giving a clear indication that 5150 is a formidable resistance which has to be broken at-least for the short term. 5180 happens to be also to be near the crucial resistance level which would be discussed in the elliotte wave analysis. One thing is sure that nifty is facing formidable resistance at 5200 levels. Now it is sure that unless and other wise 5150 it taken out successfully and also 5200 then only bulls can be strong other wise bears would be coming into the market slowely to take the market to further down sides. All the technical oscillators are not showing any strength to the ongoing up trend and are pointing towards probable reversal rather than upside breakout which every body is expecting. Till 4700 is taken out the bulls would be making attempt to take the market higher if 4700 is taken out then we might see a bigger falls that we have seen in last eight months. We can observe in the market that even though the market is at the same level during the last one and half month, activity has picked up in the madcap stocks and they are just running away thus giving an indication that the activity has shifted towards midcaps which generally take place in the last stage of the rise. Directional Momentum index (DMI) which is one of the most power indicator of strength is still moving down which is clearly giving an indication that the rise is loosing momentum and also it lacks strength details discussion would be made at DMI discussed below. Market is giving clear indications of weakness but it is still not shown in the price so we have to patiently wait for the market to give its direction an just jump into it to generate good profits. So bears please have patience.
It can be seen from the chart below that nifty has formed a lower low compared to that of last month. Last months high was 5182 and nifty has reversed after touching 5181 giving a clear indication that the market might be slowely going into the hands of bears. Whether we have formed a double top or market would make strong rally from the current levels we have to wait and watch. It can also be seen from the chart below the there is a huge –ve divergence between the nifty and RSI, while RSI is moving down towards making a low nifty if moving up and trying to make a new high. This divergence appears to be huge so pointing towards probable reversal but we have to wait for the

Market to give the clear signal than jumping into the market on the short side. let the market confirm the trend and then jump as the chances of going wrong are less than that of now. So just keep a close watch.
Positive for nifty:
• It is still above 15 day, 50 day and 100 day EMA
Negatives for nifty:
• Volumes are increasing with the every fall
• Weekly MACD and TRIX have given sell signal.
• Huge –ve divergence between RSI on weekly and daily charts.
• DMI has given a sell signal – but DMI has to move above 20 to confirm the trend.
• Daily MACD and TRIX are in sell mode.
Elliotte wave analysis:
During last few weeks it has been indicated that, 5195 and 5520 are the targets which have to be broken, I have also indicated that if nifty fails to move above 5195 and then we have chances of nifty moving towards the low of November. It has gone near 5195 twice during last one week and thrice during last one and half months giving an indication the 5195 offers a formidable resistance. As nifty has once again failed to move above 5195 we have all chances of seen 4500 in near future.
Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is indicating directionless for the market. This week also the –D1 line is above the +D1 line and DMI is moving down wards, it has moved from 16 levels to around 14 levels during the weak which is clearly indicating that the market is directionless and any call on eight calls should not be taken and should be taken only when DMI give an indication of strength in that direction. Till that time it is better for us to wait patiently. Even though market has moved during the week –D1 is maintaining above +D1 giving an indication that bears are still having slight upper hand but are failing to take control over the market, which is clearly indicated by the down ward movement of DMI.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy:

Last week nifty has moved exactly according to pivot strategy. It stayed above the pivot and it virtually went near the R2 level before reversing towards R1. as can be seen from the above table weekly pivot is placed at 5077 as any move below it would take nifty to 4973 and then 4838. And if nifty stays above the pivot then we have chances of seeing 5212.

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 6th December 2009 Time 19.07 IST
Trend is Friend.

nifty technical update as on 3rd December 2009

Nifty opened on a positive note and continued to move up for whole part of the day and then corrected towards the end of the day and closed at nearly at the low of the day. In the mean time it made a two day low indicating that bulls might have tired out and that bears might have gained upper hand atleast for the short time. Nifty is still maintaining above the 15 day EMA which is signifying that bulls are still having upper hand, it is still maintaining above all the short term moving avarages indicating that bulls are still having upper hand. 5 day EMA is placed at 5095 so tomorrow it is going to offer resistance after which 15 day EMA at 5050 is going to give good support.

If you see the EOD chart of the nifty below, it clearly shows a clear heavy -ve divergence between the nifty and the RSI. There is huge -ve divergence and generally these type of heavy divergences occur when extreme bullish or bearish sentiments come into the market. These are clearly indicating that we are going to getting correction soon. It can also be seen that nifty has once again failed to pass above the 5180 and 5200 levels and this is the third time which it has failed in the last two months which is clearly suggesting that there are the curcial levels to be kept in mind in the days to come.

Nifty technical update - Dec 1st 2009

Nifty has opened on strong note and continued to move up during the day and closed virtually at the high of the day which is clearly indicating that bulls are in charge of the market. Nifty has now come to 5150 levels which it has failed to move past atleast two times in the last one and half month. And any failure to go past this time would be check mate for the bulls and bears would take control of the market and in that case i am sure that market might go below the november lows. nifty has to atleast move above and close above 5150 level for atleast 3 days, preferably above the 5200 for bulls to take charge. Now we will see what technicals are indicating. Technicals generally given what the undertone is and market generally follows the same. If you can see from the chart below there is Huge -ve divergence between nifty and RSI which does not augur well for the market. while RSI is moving down the market is moving up which is clearly indicating that undertone appears to be weak. It may also be seen that the MACD histogram is clearly showing -ve divergence which is also indicating that the undertone is weak.

Directional Momentum index which is one of my favorite which given the strength of the current trend is flat and is placed at 16 which is clearly indicating that the current up move lacs strength.

All these are clearly indicating that even though markets are moving up they lack strength and when ever reversal happens it would be to a larger extent. My policy is follow the trend, even though the oscillators are showing weakness market is moving up so eigther be with the market or do not trade.