Nifty Weekly Update

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 29th May 2011.
Nifty’s movement during this week surprisingly is showing strength of the bulls. Nifty opened on a weak note and moved further down and made a low of 5328 and thereafter moved up and closed at 5476. For the first time in five weeks it has made a weekly green candle and also the candle appears to be a hammer indicating that bears have tried to take the market down but were not successful as bulls were able to take the market up and close at virtually at the high of the week. This clearly a symbol of strength of the bulls, and it has to be confirmed by continued buying in the coming weeks. We have to see whether the buying would come this week also, if it comes we can see further movement of the market. On of the significant things to be seen is that there are confluence of EMAs at around 5600-5650, generally when there is confluence of EMA then it would be not easy for the market to move past it when it has moved just below them. So, it would be very very difficult for the nifty to go past 5650 levels. So if we go near these levels then it would be better to protect our longs. If the market fails to move past 5650 levels then we can see a greater or a steeper fall that what is seen in the last few months and if you see Elliott wave also it is coming to a crucial levels and is pointing towards a possible collapse of the market from these levels. All these are indicating something dramatic in the market in the coming weeks. So be prepared for it.
One of the extremely bearish feature which has happened during the week is movement of 100 day EMA below the 200 day EMA ( it can be seen in the chart below by blue signal) that too only on fall of nearly 15% from the top. This is extremely bearish for the market. You may be asking why in the last six years there have only been three times when 100 day EMA has moved above below 200 day EMA. first time it moved above 200 day EMA in November 2004 and from there market nearly tripled, there after it moved below it in june 2008 and after that market collapsed from around 5000 levels to 2250 nearly 50% fall and there after it moved above 200 day EMA in june 2009 and thereafter market nearly doubled. After that it moved below the 200 day EMA in June 2011 now what to expect? History is indicating a heavy correction in the coming weeks or months. So be prepared for it.
Positive for the market:
· Daily stochastic is in buy mode
Negatives
· Nifty is trading below 15 day, 50 day, 100 day and 200 Day EMA.
· 50 day EMA is still trading below 200 day EMA indicating weakness
· 100 day EMA has moved below 200 day EMA indicating extreme weakness.
· Weekly MACD has given a sell signal indicating weakness,
· Daily MACD is in sell move and is below the signal line.
· Monthly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market.
Elliott wave analysis:

In previous weeks I have indicated that we might be forming an expanding triangle and we are in formation of the fourth wave and after completion of the same we can see fifth wave developing which would take the market down very swiftly and it would be very violent and also the longest of all the waves. The longest wave till now is of length 1000 points so the fifth wave would be of at-least 1000 length so we have to prepare for the same or would be Fibonacci relations and generally 138.10% or 161.8% so if the pattern is confirmed then we have some amount of trouble coming into the market.
It appears that we might have completed wave-i of the wave -5 of the triangle is of length 450 points and it appears that we have completed in the wave-ii which wave-iii would begin and which would be most disruptive and it would be at-least 1.618 times the wave-I so it can be of length of at-least 750 points which clearly indicates that we might see nifty drifting towards and below 5000 levels.

Wolf wave:

In my previous update, I have indicated nifty has formed a wolf wave and any close below 5700 on weekly basis would confirm the same, we are just near 5700 so if it is confirmed during the current week then we have all chances of taking the market below 5000 as per this so be prepared for the same once the same is confirmed. As nifty has closed below 5700 on weekly basis it appears that we are on our way to sub-5000 levels.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, May 29th 21.29 IST

nifty update

Bank nifty update

Nifty Weekly Update

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 14th May 2011.
The movement of nifty during the market was something of a sideways movement. It did not move any where it was stuck in range of 150 points between 5450 and 5600. It appears as of now the nifty is struggling to move above the 5600-5650 levels. it appears That we might see a big movement on close above 5650 levels or below 5450 so we have to patiently for movement above or below those levels and till then it is better to be an outside viewer. On a weekly chart nifty has formed a red candle indicating that bears were able to close the market below the opening but the slight long tail is indicating that bulls were able to take the market up from low levels. So any break of the low of the would signal a very swift fall. One of the noticing features of the market is that nifty is still maintaining below all the major moving averages be it 15 day,50 day 100 day and 200 day EMAs indicating that market is weak. Another noticing feature of the market is that there appears to be a confluence of moving averages and now whichever direction the market moves the movement would be very big. So we have to patiently wait for the directional movement of the market.

It can be seen in the above chart that nifty is forming a flag pattern and that too raising. Generally flag patterns signal the continuation pattern indication that market moves in the direction prior to formation of flag and in the present case it is down so after completion of flat the market should continue its downward journey. But we have to wait and see finally in which direction the market moves. Probability is on the down side.
Positive for the market:
· Daily stochastic has just give a buy signal
Negatives
· Nifty is trading below 15 day, 50 day, 100 day and 200 Day EMA.
· Daily stochastic oscillator has given sell signal and is moving down.
· 50 day EMA is still trading below 200 day EMA indicating weakness.
· Weekly MACD has given a sell signal indicating weakness,
· Daily MACD is in sell move and is below the signal line.
· Monthly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market.

Elliott wave analysis:

In previous weeks I have indicated that we might be forming an expanding triangle and we are in formation of the fourth wave and after completion of the same we can see fifth wave developing which would take the market down very swiftly and it would be very violent and also the longest of all the waves. The longest wave till now is of length 1000 points so the fifth wave would be of at-least 1000 length so we have to prepare for the same or would be Fibonacci relations and generally 138.10% or 161.8% so if the pattern is confirmed then we have some amount of trouble coming into the market.
It appears that we might have completed wave-i of the wave -5 of the triangle is of length 450 points and it appears that we are in the wave-ii of wave-ii after which wave-iii would begin and which would be most disruptive and it would be at-least 1.618 times the wave-I so it can be of length of at-least 750 points which clearly indicates that we might see nifty drifting towards and below 5000 levels.

Wolf wave:

In my previous updates, I have indicated nifty has formed a wolf wave and any close below 5700 on weekly basis would confirm the same, we are just near 5700 so if it is confirmed during the current week then we have all chances of taking the market below 5000 as per this so be prepared for the same once the same is confirmed. As Nifty has closed below 5700 on weekly basis it seems that we are on our way to sub-5000 levels.

M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, May 15th 18.22 IST

Nifty Weekly Update

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 7th May 2011.
Nifty opened on weak note and has been continued to be week through the week except on Friday where in the market rebounded with vengeance. Now the obvious question is for everybody would be having is whether the recovery has started or not. The only concern for the bulls is that the volumes on Friday were not so great even though the recovery was not so great. This week so month important things have happened during the week which would be music to the years of the bears, nifty has moved below 100 day, 50 day and 200 day EMA with ease which is clearly indicating the bulls were not able to defend at these territories. It appears that bulls might again attempt to conquer 200 day 50 or the 100 day EMA which are at 5631 and 5661 levels. if nifty nears those levels we have to be careful as any selling has all the chances of taking the market below 5400 levels and would be dangerous for the bulls as in that case we have chances of nifty moving towards sub-5000 levels, the patterns are suggesting that.
Positive for the market:
· Weekly MACD is in buy signal and is in process of giving a sell signal.
· Daily stochastic has just give a buy signal
Negatives
· Nifty is trading below 15 day, 50 day, 100 day and 200 Day EMA.
· Daily stochastic oscillator has given sell signal and is moving down.
· 50 day EMA is still trading below 200 day EMA indicating weakness.
· Daily MACD has given a sell signal.
· Monthly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market.

Elliott wave analysis:

In previous weeks I have indicated that we might be forming an expanding triangle and we are in formation of the fourth wave and after completion of the same we can see fifth wave developing which would take the market down very swiftly and it would be very violent and also the longest of all the waves. The longest wave till now is of length 1000 points so the fifth wave would be of at-least 1000 length so we have to prepare for the same or would be Fibonacci relations and generally 138.10% or 161.8% so if the pattern is confirmed then we have some amount of trouble coming into the market.
It appears that we might have completed wave-i of the wave -5 of the triangle is of length 450 points and it appears that we are in the wave-ii of wave-ii after which wave-iii would begin and which would be most disruptive and it would be at-least 1.618 times the wave-I so it can be of length of at-least 750 points which clearly indicates that we might see nifty drifting towards and below 5000 levels.

The pattern is similar to that has been formed in January to may 2004 which is given below:

You see the fifth wave which is from around 1900 to around 1300 levels that have been the longest and the most volatile. Whether the same would happen now we have to wait and watch. Generally in an expanding triangle very body gets bullish on completion of the fourth wave and then the market suddenly turns the same seems to be happening now and the same was in April 2004 so we have to see whether the same happens now or not. Just wait and watch.

Wolf wave:
In my previous update, I have indicated nifty has formed a wolf wave and any close below 5700 on weekly basis would confirm the same, we are just near 5700 so if it is confirmed during the current week then we have all chances of taking the market below 5000 as per this so be prepared for the same once the same is confirmed.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, May 8st 22.20 IST

Nifty update

Nifty Weekly Technical update

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 30th April 2011.
Nifty during the entire week appears to be closing in red day on day except for first day of the week indicating the bears were coming into the market. The market closed at the lowest point on the week indicating the bears were successful in keeping the market down. Another important point to be noted is that nifty closed at four week low which is a bearish signal and any close below 5693 has all chances of increasing the pace of the fall. So the coming week is going to decide the fate of the market at-least for short period of time. Nifty now is just placed at the 100 day EMA, during the last one month it has once taken support at the 100 day EMA and then moved up towards 5900 whether the same would happened now or market would move further down we have the wait and see. One of the noticing features of the fall during the week is that the volumes have been continually increasing day on day and were highest on Friday indicating the some amount of selling is coming into the market. Another point to be noted is that the volumes were highest during this week and also day on day the volumes were high compared to the last one month indicating that bears are gaining strength. Even the results of major companies were not so great, which is also proving a point that the market might move downward in this month. It appears that unless and otherwise some this spectacular event happens it appears that it would be difficult for the market to move past 6000 in a hurry.
Positive for the market:
· Nifty is trading above 50 day, 100 day and 200 Day EMA.
· There is a divergence in MACD histogram.
· Weekly MACD has give a buy signal
Negatives developing:
· Daily stochastic oscillator has given sell signal and is moving down.
· 50 day EMA is still trading below 200 day EMA indicating weakness.
· Daily MACD has given a sell signal.
· Monthly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market.
Elliott wave analysis:

In previous weeks I have indicated that we might be forming an expanding triangle and we are in formation of the fourth wave and after completion of the same we can see fifth wave developing which would take the market down very swiftly and it would be very violent and also the longest of all the waves. The longest wave till now is of length 1000 points so the fifth wave would be of at-least 1000 length so we have to prepare for the same or would be Fibonacci relations and generally 138.10% or 161.8% so if the pattern is confirmed then we have some amount of trouble coming into the market.

The pattern is similar to that has been formed in January to may 2004 which is given below:
You see the fifth wave which is from around 1900 to around 1300 levels that have been the longest and the most volatile. Whether the same would happen now we have to wait and watch. Generally in an expanding triangle very body gets bullish on completion of the fourth wave and then the market suddenly turns the same seems to be happening now and the same was in April 2004 so we have to see whether the same happens now or not. Just wait and watch.

Wolf wave:

In my previous update, I have indicated nifty has formed a wolf wave and any close below 5700 on weekly basis would confirm the same, we are just near 5700 so if it is confirmed during the current week then we have all chances of taking the market below 5000 as per this so be prepared for the same once the same is confirmed.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, May 1st 18.28 IST