nifty techncial analysis for the week ended 24th October 2009.

Nifty Weekly Technical Update for week ended October 24th, 2009. 701804005
Nifty during the week opened on slightly strong note and there after became weak and was weak for the whole week and closed at 5997 a loss of nearly 150 points. The move during the week was significant on many effects. Nifty fell for continues four days which was the first time in the last eight months, nifty moved below the 15 day low EMA which is only third time during the last eight months. Another very very important thing is that nifty has broken a trend line drawn from the low of march indicating that the trend might have reversed. This is the first time in the last eight months that nifty has broken the trend line. All these have happened after negative divergences over months so this cannot be ignored and also it happened in the eight months which again happen to be a Fibonacci. So all these factors cannot be taken lightly. As has been mentioned above nifty has moved below 15 day low EMA which is at 5005 so now we have to see for an opportunity to short at every raise. In nifty move above that level the strategy should be reversed. Another important thing which should be noted is that with the fall of this week the buy indication in nifty has converted into sell signal which clearly indicates that trend has reversed. Now the important support for the nifty is around 4900 and also at the 50 day EMA which is at 4853. Nifty might take support at the 50 day EMA as earlier when ever nifty has gone below the 15 day low EMA it has taken support at the 50 day EMA and reversed with a vengeance. So we have to be watch full when ever nifty reaches the 50 day EMA level. Any breach of the 50 day EMA should be taken as an opportunity to come entirely into cash and try to short only and no other activity. Now we have to watch out for one important factor i.e. the faster retracement of nifty below 4600. It took 28 days for nifty to move from 4600 to 5176 and it should take more days to move below this to keep the uptrend intact so we have to keep a close watch of 4600 any breach of the same in less that 28 days would confirm the uptrend is over and also down trend has started. You might be thinking that whether I have to wait so long to take a decision on whether the trend has reversed or not. It is not the case but just see the higher highs and higher lows and vice versa. Till now nifty has been making higher highs and higher lows but we have to see whether in the raise which comes after the fall is going to make higher high or not. If it makes a higher high i.e if it moves above 5176 then we can be sure that the trend is intact but the rise does not take nifty above 5176 then we have formed a lower low which is the first indication of reversal and it would be confirmed when it makes a lower low. So keep a close watch on the movement on the same.

It may be noted that any breach of 4700 should be taken as an opportunity to come into cash no matter what the stock is as it will signal the end of the current Bull Run. Currently good support appears to be at 4900. In my view we should start booking profit once 4900 is violated.

Positives for the market :
• Nifty is still above 50 day EMA.
• On weekly charts TRIX and MACD are in buy mode and are just about to give a sell signal.
NegativeS for market.
• The trend line drawn from march low is broken
• Nifty is below 15 day low EMA.
• -ve divergences still exists in oscillators – ROC, RSI, Elder bull ray
• Volumes are not still increasing.
• DMI has given a sell signal indicating the bears have just gained upper hand.

It can be seen from the above that the –ve factors are increasing and positive factors are decreasing which is clearly indicating that indices are becoming week.

Elliott wave analysis:
In previous updates I have clearly indicated the wave structure and there appears to be no change to my wave structure so nothing new to mention in this week. As per elliotte wave structure I have given target of 5195 and 5520 and both targets are yet to be attained and we have chances of seeing at-least 5195 in near term if it is taken out then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 5520. during the week the high made by nifty was 5176which is just short of the 5195 by 20 points and started to move down this is not an good indication if this is the third wave failure then it indicates the weakness in the market and if third wave of higher wave has just started the we might see a larger cut in the market that every body is expecting. So better be carefully with the longs.

Directional Momentum Index:

DMI is has moved from around 27.04 to 23 but during the week it has moved by buy indication to sell indication i.e –D1 has moved up and +DMI has moved down and both are moving down which is clearly indicating that momentum is down and that the trend is neutral as all the three i.eDMI,+D1 and –D1 are moving down.
Pivot point analysis:

Pivot point for the nifty is at 5049 and nifty is below this indicating that the trend is atleast for the time being weak nifty has to move above this to indicate strength and any breach of the same on upper side has chances of taking it to 5129. if nifty fails to move above pivot then we have chances of seeing 4916 and if it is broken then 4836. so keep a close watch

Turtle Trading:
Turtle Trading - 20 day Phenomenon (gave buy indication at 4743)
Current trend – buy
Go long above – in buy mode
Square off - 4921
Go short below: 4904
ATR at 80

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 25th October 2009 Time 7:50:32 PM IST.
Trend is friend

nifty technical update as on 22 october 2009

This update is being given as nifty has just broken the trend line drawn from the low of the march which primarily indicates that the uptrend might have just ended. It may also be noted that this is the first time that nifty has continually fallen for 4 days in the last eight months. This clearly indicating that bears have slowely come into the market and we might see bears dominating the market in comming months. Generally when long term trend lines are broken then we generally see it continuing. Now bulls might make a last attempt to take markets higher and it appears that that would be the top of the market or the last pull back rally. it may also be noted that nifty has again went below 15 day EMA low which clearly indicating that bears are on proul. In my view it is the best time to come into cash and wait patiently for market reversal.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend.

Thursday 22nd October 2009 Tme 20.00 IST

Nifty Week technical update for week ended 18th October 2009

Nifty Weekly Technical Update for week ended September 18th, 2009.
Nifty opened strong during the week and maintained is upward journey and closed at highest point of the week. This shows clearly that bulls are in control of the market but it appears from the chart that the bulls have exhausted at-least for the very short period.The movement of nifty during the week was as anticipated and also as predicted. So we did not have any surprise action during the week. Nifty is maintaining itself above 15 day low EMA which is at 4977 which is clearly giving an indication that we are still in a uptrend and evey fall should be taken as an opportunity to go long. During the previous week nifty has taken support exactly at 15 day low EMA on previous week Friday and this week Monday onwards nifty has started to move up and made a new high. As I have been saying for the last seven months the 15 day low EMA has been acting as a good support level and it has been breached only twice and both the occasions’ nifty has rebounded with vengeance. So the trend to turn weak the nifty should close below 15 day low EMA decisively at-least for one week. So keep a watch on the same. One of the symptom which has been a concern for the last few months is that volumes have not bee supporting the break outs and this week was also not an exception. The rise for the current week was also was on low volumes indicating that majority of the players are now supporting the rise or valuations.
As per Fibonacci we have just completing 7 months and now we are into the 8th months. And as per Fibonacci we have chances of market correcting at the end of the eight month or just after completing it. So we have to be watch full.

It may be noted that any breach of 4700 should be taken as an opportunity to come into cash no matter what the stock is as it will signal the end of the current bull run. Currently good support appears to be at 4900. In my view we should start booking profit once 4900 is violated.

Positives for the market
• Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA and 50 day EMA.
• DMI is moving up on weekly charts.
• The trend line of the rise is still intact.
Negative for market.
• -ve divergances still exists in oscillators – ROC, RSI, Elder bull ray
• Volumes are not still increasing.
• DMI is moving down on daily charts giving an indication that bulls are becoming weak.

Elliott wave analysis:
Last week I have clearly indicated the wave structure and there appears to be no change to my wave structure so nothing new to mention in this week. As per elliotte wave structure I have given target of 5195 and 5520 and both targets are yet to be attained and we have chances of seeing at-least 5195 in near term if it is taken out then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 5520. during the week the high made by nifty was 5152 which is just short of the 5195 by 40 points we have to see whether it will be attained or not. But in my view we have all the chances of seeing 5195. so better watch out.
Directional Momentum Index:

DMI is has moved from around 27.48 to 27.04 after giving a positing buy indication i.e. movement of +D1 over –D1 and also +D1 is moving down and –D1 is moving up indicating that bears are slowly becoming active. After moving above 30 DMI has again moved below 30 this is not a good news for bulls. It is clearly giving an indication that even though bulls have upper hand now they are clearly loosing ground.

Pivot point analysis:

Nifty has moved exactly as per my last week’s indication. Nifty moved above 4981 pivot point and then rose and moved above the R1 and also R2. But for the current week the pivot is at 4080 and nifty is above it indicating strength but as nifty is showing some weakness we might see nifty moving towards pivot of S1. for the current week the range appears to be beween 5007 and 5214. if nifty fails to move above 5175 during early part of the coming week then we have all the chances of seeing 5080.

Turtle Trading:
Turtle Trading - 20 day Phenomenon (gave buy indication at 4743)
Current trend – buy
Go long above – in buy mode
Square off - 4921
Go short below: 4895
ATR at 85

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 18th October 2009 Time 7:11:20 PM IST.
Trend is friend

nifty weekly Technical update for week ended 10th October 2009.

Nifty Weekly Technical Update for week ended September 10th, 2009.
Nifty opened weak during the week and continued to move down and finally closed at lowest point of the week. Out of five days nifty closed three days above 5000 and two days below 5000. This is clearly indicating that there is tremendous fight going between bulls and bears and who ever wins there will be big movement in that side. So keeps a close watch as we have a very good profit opportunity waiting for us. Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA which is at 4926.Nifty has violated the 15 day low EMA only twice in the last seven months showing the strength of the support. And also nifty is above the 50 day EMA which is at 4752. During the last seven months 50 day EMA has been violated only for three days giving the strength of support. So now we are closely at these averages. So presently 4926 and 4752 become very important support levels the violation of the second support level will indicated that the current Bull Run might have ended. Once nifty moves below 4926 then we should take an opportunity to short every rise till the 15 day EMA is violated on higher side. So this week is going to be very crucial week for deciding the fate of the bulls. One point may be noted is that nifty has closed below the low of the earlier week. During the previous week the low was at 4959 and nifty closed below it at 4945 during the current week. Such an event has happened only twice during the last seven months and this is the third such event. So better watch out. As per Fibonacci we are just completing 7 months and during the coming week we will be entering the 8th months. And as per Fibonacci we have chances of market correcting at the end of the eight month or just after completing it. So we have to be watch full.

It may be noted that any breach of 4700 should be taken as an opportunity to come into cash no matter what the stock is as it will signal the end of the current bull run.

Positives for the market
• Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA and 50 day EMA.
• DMI is moving up on weekly charts.
• The trend line of the rise is still intact.
Negative for market.
• -ve divergances still exists in oscillators – ROC, RSI, Elder bull ray
• Volumes are not still increasing.
• DMI is moving down on daily charts giving an indication that bulls are becoming weak.
Elliott wave analysis:

Last week I have clearly indicated the wave structure and there appears to be no change to my wave structure so nothing new to mention in this week. As per elliotte wave structure I have given target of 5195 and 5520 and both targets are yet to be attained and we have chances of seeing at-least 5195 in near term if it is taken out then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 5520. So watch accordingly.

Directional Momentum Index:

DMI is has moved from around 31.50 to 27.48 after giving a positing buy indication i.e. movement of +D1 over –D1 and also +D1 is moving down and –D1 is moving up indicating that bears are slowly becoming active. After moving above 30 DMI has again moved below 30 this is not a good news for bulls. It is clearly giving an indication that even though bulls have upper hand now they are clearly loosing ground.
Pivot point analysis:

Nifty has moved exactly as per my last weeks indication. Nifty moved below the 5051 pivot point and then fell down and also moved below the S1 and is moving towards S2. but for the current week the pivot is at 4981 and nifty is below it indicating weakness and also chances of moving towards 4885 if nifty bounces from 4885 then we have chances of seeing 5041. so the range for the coming weeks should be 4825 and 5041
Turtle Trading:
Turtle Trading - 20 day Phenomenon (gave buy indication at 4743)
Current trend – buy
Go long above – in buy mode
Square off - 4904
Go short below: 4784
ATR at 80

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 11th October 2009 Time 6:47:20 PM IST.
Trend is friend

Weekly technical analysis of nifty for week ended 03.09.2009

Nifty Weekly Technical Update for week ended September 2nd, 2009.
This week was a truncated week with only three trading days possible. During the week nifty closed on a positive note. After failing to close above 5000 for the previous week this week nifty closed above 5000 for three consecutive days indicating that the bulls have successfully conquered 5000. Generally it is considered that any close above the resistance levels for three consecutive days is considered as positive sign. As 5000 is a psychological level and as nifty has closed above it for three consecutive days we cam safely assume that we might have conquered it. So all our stop loss should be placed around those levels probably around 4900 levels. Previous week nifty has formed a doji indicating indecisive ness and this week if has firmly moved up showing direction for the market. so the low of the previous week 4904 should be a formidable stop loss for any longers in the market any move below that level should ring alarm bells and we should be cautious. Nifty is still quoting above 15 day EMA low which is at 4897 and till nifty is above that level there is no problem for the bulls and once it moves below that it should ring alarm bells in the ears of bulls. As during the entire run from March lows nifty has gone below that only once and that too after the budget. So the 15 day EMA low can be taken as a good support level for nifty. As far as Fibonacci is concerned we are into the seventh month and we will be entering into 8th month in and around diwali from where we should become cautious as by the end of 8th month or during the end of 8th months generally makets reverse. Considering this we can safely assume at this point of time is that we might has a very good diwali this year which is complete reversal of fortunes from the last diwali where the market was down and out. In my view we might see market correcting from the second week of November. So once this month ends we should start booking profits on every rise. DMI which is one of my favorite which clearly give the strength of the current move has moved upwards 31 indicating that bulls are gaining upper hand and we might see the markets going into frenzy mood in the coming weeks. On weekly charts also DMI has moved from around 28 to current 31 indicating that bulls are gaining upper hands.
In weekly charts are showing good strength for medium term. In weekly charts, during the last two weeks the 50 week EMA has moved above the 100 week EMA which is clearly indicating the market is gaining strength. The previous time the 50 week EMA went above the 100 week EMA was in September 2004 when the nifty was at 1600 and there after nifty has risen to 6357. And currently 50 week EMA has moved above 100 week EMA showing the strength of bulls. But do not take it as a base that nifty will blast away from these levels. but it is showing the strength of the current move.

Positives for the market
• Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA
• DMI is moving up in both daily and weekly charts and the trend in favor of bulls.
• The trend line of the rise is still intact.
Negative for market.
• -ve divergances still exists in oscillators – ROC, RSI, Elder bull ray
• Volumes are not still increasing.
Elliott wave analysis:
Last week I have clearly indicated the wave structure and there appears to be no change to my wave structure so nothing new to mention in this week. As per elliotte wave structure I have given target of 5195 and 5520 and both targets are yet to be attained and we have chances of seeing at-least 5195 in near term if it is taken out then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 5520. So watch accordingly

Directional Momentum Index:

DMI is has moved from around 29 to 31.50 after giving a positing buy indication i.e. movement of +D1 over –D1. The rise of DMI after positive break our is a clear indication that bulls have gained upper hand in the market and they might try all means to decimate bears. It has moved above 30 which is clearly giving an indication that we have all fair chances of nifty moving up.
Pivot point analysis:

Nifty is just above the week pivot point, till it is above 5051 we have chances of seeing 5142 in the coming week. If the weekly pivot point is taken out on down side then we have chances of seeing 4991. Any break of 4915 should alarm us and we should book our profits as early as possible. For the coming week we have range of 4900 to 5202.

Turtle Trading:
Turtle Trading - 20 day Phenomenon (gave buy indication at 4743)
Current trend – buy
Go long above – in buy mode
Square off - 4895
Go short below: 4577
ATR at 80

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 4th October 2009 Time 7:04:25 PM IST.
Trend is friend