Rupee is behaving as has been indicated nearly two years back, at that time the frist target was give as 57.12 and then 60 and 64 now we have already acheived the same in 2011 and now we are at nearly 60 and no doubt it would touch around 65. at that time nobody might have beleived but now we are getting calls of 62 atleast and we have alls chances of surprassing the same. its only a matter of time as to when we  would acheive the same. So after some brief correction we migh again move up to acheive the ultimate target of above Rs.65.

nifty weekly update

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 8^th June 2013

Nifty during the week has been closing lower on each day of the week which is not a good news for the bulls. Nifty has moved blow the 50 day EMA and now it is exactly at 100 day EMA. We have to see whether this would offer support or not if it is taken out we have next important support at 200 day EMA which happens to be around 5750.

In previous update I have mentioned that nifty has bank nifty have completed on monthly chart demark sell set up over the period of 5 years and which is a bearish signal and if nifty  moves below the 13^th candle low of 5930 then we have all chances of confirming the pattern and for bank nifty its 11800. For nifty this weeks close has confirmed the same and for BNF its still far away.

On weekly chart nifty has fallen for continues three weeks which is a bearish signal but still the directional momentum indicator is not giving strength to the bears its moving down indicating that it lacks strength, still confirmation from the DMI comes we would not be having so much down side. So bears might return any time during this period. So even though the trend is moving down we still wait for confirmation from the market.

Surprisingly markets have memory, puzzled you might be. If you apply time series analysis we can easily arrive at the probable trend and also how many weeks or days I would last. If you see the chart of bank nifty from 2008 to till now the time gap between each successive tops ( one top to next top) is average around 17 to 21 weeks with one or two exceptions. And the time gap between each successive bottoms( between one bottom to another bottom is 14 to 17 weeks with one or two exceptions in between. And if you apply this currently the time gap of 18 weeks have completed from its previous top at 12975( on 18^th Jan 2013) so we should now expect the market to correct from current levels and the time series tells that we have some long time left for it to form bottom. I have indicated earlier that the time gap between each successive bottom is 14 to 17 weeks. Considering this we have completed 8 weeks from bottom of 10904 so we have now nearly 6 to 8 weeks left for the market to make a new bottom so we have all chances of market moving down or bottom is nearly 6 to 8 weeks away so we can surely expect the market to move down. So applying the time series analysis can be such an handy, and now we can easily say the markets have memory.   

The chart below shows the time series analysis from April 2008 till now and you can easily see the time series analysis which has been done by me and at each time it easily gives clues at exact timings and this can be extremely usefull  in identifying the turns. Whenever exceptions occur the market moves wildly so market gives clues and we should be able to just identify them.

The second chart also indicates that market has memory. It can be seen that market reacts exactly at the trend lines it can be seen that nifty has been reversing whenever it went near the upper trend line and at the same time it reacts whenever it comes near the lower trend line. Currently lower trend line is at around 5600 levels so we can expect the market to moves down to be in conformity with the trend line technique and also the time series analysis.

M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend
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Sunday 9th June 2013 19.55 IST