Rupee chart(weekly Chart). i have indicated in my earlier updates on rupee that we have all the chances of seeing a new high in rupee and it seems that we have now started the up move and it clearly seems that in coming weeks we have all chances of seeing a new high. Will it happen before budget it seems to be so. The elliott wave analysis of rupee is indicated in the above chart. i would explain it in details in a day or two. But as of now it appear that we are in the fifth wave of the third of the third and there is long way to go before the third wave is completed. This week we have closed at 52 week high and today also we have again closed at a new 52 week high which generally is a bullish sign for USD.  The USD index is also making multi year high, i have indicated it in September that we have all chances of seeing 90 first then 96 and then 102 we have now achieved the first target and it would be a matter of time before a 96 is achieved.USD index is on verge of making a 12 year high not a mean feat. All this is indicating that the world currencies are depreciating against USD and rupee would also follow the suit and it appears the up move is USD is going to gain momentum which would surprise every body by the pace of the move against the rupee. So we can expect a new high in rupee in coming weeks or months.

May all be Peaceful and Happy

Mahiidar M

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Dow Jone Industrial Average:

 Dow Jones industrial average is making all time highs during the last week and every body is gung ho about the same. So now we see what the charts are indicating. As can be seen in the above chart there is a huge -ve divergence of RSI with the price also notice the volumes which are on decreasing trend(migh be due to christmas) but technical s are technical s and the divergence along with volume reduction is indicating that we might reverse any movement and the current up moves lacs strength. There is -ve divergence in MACD and others also which are all indicating that the up move is going to end as early as possible. So the beginning 2015 is going to be surprise for bull as far as dow jones. So watch out for the same.

May all be Peacful and Happy
Mahiidar M
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 27^th December 2014

Nifty during the last two weeks is in the grip of bears and during the last week it seems to be on recovery mode. We have to see whether the recovery sustains or not. Nifty has moved below the 20 day EMA and also moved below the 50 day EMA and seems to have taken support exactly at the 100 day EMA. It took support exactly at the 100 day EMA and this week it tried to move above the 20 day EMA but it is facing resistance at the same and now exactly at the 50 day EMA. Any move above 20 day EMA would take the market further up and if it fails then we have all chances of moving towards the 100 day EMA which happens to be around 8055. The 20 day EMA is at 8276. So as of now 8276 should be resistance and the 8055 to be support. Any breach of these to levels would have all chances of taking the markets on a sustainable move in that direction.

Elliotte Wave Analysis:

Wave analysis of the nifty has under gone a change considering the movement of the market in the last two weeks. As the wave IV has gone into the region of wave-I( which should not happen) we have to look into the alternative wave structure which is now coming to expanding triangle which is indicated in the chart below. It seems that we have completed the wave- a to c and not it see that we are in completion of wave-d( these waves are indicated in red color) post which we might start wave-e. So in the coming week we might see an up move as the wave structure indicates. So now we have to wait and watch how the market unfolds.

Mahiidar M

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Elliott wave update

Nifty has moved below 20 day EMA after nearly one and half months which is a bearish signal. So now the 20 day EMA becomes resistance and now nifty would try to move towards the 50 day EMA which happens to be around 8226 will it move there it appears to be so. Even we have a trend line there drawn from the low of the start of the current trend so it appears that this level i.e 50 day EMA to be crucial level for nifty as any break of this line is not good for bulls are in last nine months this line has offered support for any falls so watch out for this level.

As far as Elliott wave is concerned it seems that the third wave seems to be complete ( as of now might change as how the market moves) and we are in the fourth wave, the fourth wave would not in any case go into the area of the first wave so first wave top appears to be at 8226 which again is the 50 day EMA. So 8226 is the crucial level for the market to watch for. 

May all be Peaceful and Happy

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

AUDUSD-0.83/- whether AUDUSD heading towards 0.70? it appears to be so. It has formed a Heads and Shoulders pattern over a period of exactly Five years( as fibonacci) it has broke the neck line in September 2014 and has been moving down since then. Now comes the question on what are the Probable targets as per the H&S pattern it give a target of around 0.70/- so it seems that USD is going to strengthen against AUD in comming weeks till it stays below 0.90 we can expect it to slowly and steadly move towards 0.70 so we would wait and see what happens.

May All be Happy and Peaceful

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend

Corporation Bank:-Rs.336/- Corporation bank has been consolidating around 200 day EMA for last four months and it seems of lately it is making attempts to move up from current levels that too on healthy volumes suggesting that it has all the intentions of moving up from the current levels.The stock has moved above 200 day EMA in April 2014 then rose nearly 50% and then started to correct came back to the 200 day EMA consolidated there for four months and then not making attempts to move up from current levels. Now the margin of safety is very high as the stock loss can be put Rs.304 and upside chances are very high. 

May all be peaceful and Happy
M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is Friend.

Bank of India-Rs.297/-. CNX PSU banks index is indicating that it is positively moves up so now if we see the underlying stocks then the market can give good profits as index consists of its constituents. So BOI seems to have formed h&S pattern over a period of four to five months and it seems to break above the neck line and if its taken out then the upside break out give the target equivalent to the length of the Head which give a target of around Rs.75 so we can expect a healthy movement in the stock. stop loss at 200 day EMA below 265/-

May all be Peaceful and Happy
M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is friend.

CNX PSU banks-4309/- seems to be heading higher it has moved above 200 week EMA then came back took support and then started to move up with very high volumes(indicated by blue arrow) this is a perfect technical set up and it is suggesting that its wants to move up further. The index is indicating that the psu banks have the chances of moving up from current levels. So we have to look into the constituents of this index and look whether we can take positions into them. But the index is suggesting that it wants to move up.

May All be Peaceful and Happy
M.Mahiidar
Enjoying Life
Trend is friend.

Bharat Bijlee; Rs.633/- it seems technically the stock is giving a good indication for domination of bulls. The above chart is a weekly chart. The stock has been consolidating between 100 week EMA and 200 week EMA for last four months and today it has move above the 200 week EMA. It has moved above 200 week EMA after very long time after June 2008. Went up above 200 week EMA stayed above it then came below it and has been consolidating between range. It has taken support at the 100 week EMA and has moved above 200 week EMA today if it stays above it we can expect it to make a new 52 week high and has all the chances of moving up from current levels. Financials are not so encouraging for last two years but historically during the infra boom of 2004-07 the stock has give stupendous returns and during the down trend it has fallen from 4000 to 250 levels so we are now below the 80% levels so the chances of moving up are more that the down trend. Stop loss below the 100 week EMA at 540/-

May all be Happy and Peacefull

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

SPML Infra-Rs.88/- SPML infra seems to have started an up move after nearly five months of consolidation. The above chart is the weekly chart. Look at the consolidation one consolidation exactly below 200 week EMA and other just at 200 week EMA which is a bullish sign. Notice the consolidation it is a step up consolidation which is very bullish signal generally these type of consolidation indicate a good up side movement for the concerned stock.The financials are not much to boost about Even the quarterly results do not indicate that much improvement, but it seems that the market is looking into the future of the stock and it has give excellent results in previous infra boom so it seems market seems to be looking at the future of the company.Technically a good stock to get into as per my personal opinion.

May all be Peaceful and Happy

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 29^th November 2014

Nifty started the week forming all time high and there after it slightly drifted downwards and there after started to move up and on Friday it moved vigorously and closed the week at all time high. Nifty opened at 8490 made a low of 8429 made a high of 8617 and finally closed at 8588. nifty has move and taken support at the 20 day EMA ( nearly) and then started to move up during the last week. This move is indicating that we might see further upsides before any correction sets in. During the last nine months nifty has been moving up and coming down and taking support at 20 day EMA and then move up this has occurred so many times and now also 20 day EMA has offered good support. Considering this we can assume that the 20 day EMA would offer support for any correction. It is at around 8378 so we are nearly 210 points from those levels. So we expect the market to consolidate slightly and then move up. RSI is at 73 levels at over bought levels and it has been maintain at those levels for last two months. The over-bought levels is an indication that the bulls are strong and any down move has all chances of being bought into till proved otherwise.

Above chart is the Elliot wave breakup of the up move which started from February 2014. All the waves are perfectly falling into place it appears that we are in the 3^rd wave of the wave-5 of larger wave-C. Elliott wave has given a minimum target of 8570 and indicated that nifty has chances of moving towards 8700 levels the first target has been achieved and we might as well progress towards the 8700 levels and we would look into further targets once 8700 levels are taken out till then wait for the targets to be achieved.

May all be Happy and Peacefull

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.

USDINR has move above the crucial resistance level this week it closed above 62 after nearly 21 months( a Fibonacci) which is a very good technical indication. I have been waiting to close above 62 post the update. USDINR has been consolidating between 60.50 to 62 for last 5 months in the week ended 22 november it moved above it but closed below 62 but this week it moved above it and weekly close was also above it, which is a bullish signal for USD. The break out is indication that we might see it inching upwards in the coming months. It appears that it has all chances of making a new high. I can move above 70 in coming weeks so, we have to prepare for it.

Now we look into the Elliott wave- analysis of USDINR.

 The long term chart of the USDINR is furnished above; the chart is for more 40 years. It can be seen in the above chart that USDINR is moving in a channel and till now its intact in the coming weeks we might see it again moving above it before a correction can set in, this is also an indication that we have all chances of seeing a new high in USDINR. Given below is the Elliott wave break up of the wave indicated in blue circle above which started from the low of 39 in 2008.

  

 The above chart is the USDINR chart from the low of 2008 onwards, the wave-1 wave from the low of 39 to the high of 52 which lasted for 69 weeks. There after stated a consolidation, the wave-II which was a double combination a zig-zag and a triangle, the wave-II ended at 43.84 a fall of Rs.8.29 a fall of nearly 61.80%( corrected 63%) it lasted nearly 125 weeks there after stated the wave-3( larger wave) from around 43.84 we are still in forming the wave-3 only. The wave-1 of wave-3 was from 43.84 to 54.32 a rise of Rs.10.48 in 20 weeks there after the wave-2 of wave-3 stared and fell up-to 48.60 in 7 weeks. There we started to form wave-3 which started to break into its components as of now wave-1,2 of wave-3 of larger wave-III have completed and it seems we are in the wave-3 of 3 of larger wave-III, the wave-3 is further breaking into its components and we seems to have completed the wave-4, of 3 of 3 of larger wave-III. Now it seems that we might have stared the wave-5 and it seems that its again breaking into its components and we have to see whether it would move above the all time high. As the larger wave-III has not still completed and the completion seems to be far away as there are so many waves still have to be formed and we can expect the USDINR to move substantially from current levels. will we see a new high before budget we have to wait and see.

May all be Happy and Peacefull

M.Mahiidar

Enjoying Life

Trend is Friend.