Nifty weekly technical update for 19th February 2010

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 19th February 2010.
Nifty opened the week on a weak note and there after became strong and moved up towards 100 day EMA and then reversed down wards towards 4800 in the last two days of the week. It appears that nifty has formed a strong support at 4800 for the time being and on the upper side it appears that 100 day EMA happens to be formidable resistance. This week also when nifty moved up sharply it made a high at 4929 which also happens to be very near the 100 day EMA currently 100 day EMA is placed at 4915. So unless and other wise 4915 is taken out there is no hope for bulls and till 4800 is taken out no hope for bears and till the market stays in between these frustration for the trades and it is advisable to trade only intra day and no carry forward trades may be initiated in nifty only. The coming week happens also happens to be a budget week and as usual the market swings wildly during the week and this point to be taken into consideration while trading. One of the important points to be noted during the current weeks movement is that nifty has made a failed attempt to conquer 100 day EMA for the second time in the last fifteen days( indicated by arrows in chart). When ever this phenomenon has happened in the last two years nifty has tanked by nearly 1200 points. Whether there would be any different this time we have to wait and see. It may also be noted that 15 day EMA has moved below the 100 day EMA this has also happened for the first time after the April 2009 indicating weakness in the market. The MA are clearly indicating that the under tone has definitely turned weak and bulls are just trying to show their strength. So technically it appears that market might tank at any point of time and it appears that it is waiting for the major event i.e the budget to decide.

Positives for Nifty:
• Market is above 200 day EMA.
Negatives for nifty:
• Nifty is below 15 day, 50 day and 100 day EMA.
• Nifty has also moved below the 15 week EMA for the first time in last 11 months.
• 15 day EMA has moved below 50 day and 100 day EMA for the first time in last 11 months.
• Daily MACD is in sell mode.
• Weekly MACD and TRIX are still in sell mode.
• DMI is given sell signal and has moved above 35 indicating the clear strength of the bears.
As can be seen from the second chart nifty has formed a three black crows( indicated by me 15 days back in weekly update) this is a very bearish pattern and that too on weekly charts is extremely rare and its implications are very very bad for bulls. The implications for the same are very bearish and it would be negated only and only when nifty breaks above and makes a new high.
Elliotte wave:
As per Elliott wave it appears the trend might has turned down and we might be heading down wards. I have indicated in my earlier monthly analysis the probable alternatives and in the next week I would again give the probable formation and structure and the targets. But today I would be giving the minimum targets which markets have to achieve if the reversal is correct. As per the Elliott wave if market is correcting the entire rise from March 2009 then we have the minimum target of 4650 and in my view it should be 4246 which is the 38.1% retracement. If we seen historically nifty has corrected anywhere between 50 to 61.8% when the nifty has corrected after substantial rise. so the total rise of nifty is around 2800 points so we might see a fall of either 1400 points or 1730 points thus giving a target of 3900 and 3500 so we have still a way to go before market reverses.
Directional Momentum index – (DMI)
Currently DMI is in sell mode and is above 35 indicating extreme strength of bears. And generally when ever DMI moves above 30 or so markets generally halt and then fall with vengeance so in coming weeks we might see a good healthy fall in nifty.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy:

For the coming week pivot is placed at 4852 and till nifty stays above that we have chances of seeing 4921 and 4998. It may also be noted that monthly pivot is placed at 4983 and till nifty maintains below that we have chances of seeing 4665 and 4448.


M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 22nd February 2010, Time 11.29 a.m.IST
Trend is friend

Nifty update

Ichimoku Kimko Hyo Update for nifty.

M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is friend.

nifty weekly technical update as on 14th Feb 2010

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 13th February 2010.
Nifty opened on a weak note on Monday moved lower and touched 4675 and there after reversed and closed above 4800 for most part of the week and virtually closed at the highest point of the week but lower than the open of the week. The close at highest point of the week indicates that the bulls are trying to come into the market. One of the noticing features of the current week is that nifty has moved down on opening and then found support at near the 200 day EMA which was at 4650 and nifty made a low of 4675 which is just near the 200 day MA which is till giving an indication that the long term investors are still giving support at 200 day EMA. 200 day EMA is crucial for any market or stock as any move below it would trigger a heavy selling as long term investors would start booking profits or moving out of the market once indices or stocks go below 200 day EMA so as far as next few weeks is considered 200 day EMA is going to be a good support level any breach of the same would result in heavy selling in the index stocks and which would eventually be spreading to the mid-cap sector where in the real panic would set in. Another noticing feature of the current week’s movement is that nifty has taken support at exactly at the 23.60% correction of the entire rise. Interestingly 200 day EMA and also 23.60% retracement are exactly at the same level so in the coming weeks 4650 is going to offer a good support for the market and mind you any breach of the same would make the market to tank towards 4200 just like that so trade or invest accordingly. Another important thing which has happened during the week is that 15 day EMA has moved below the 100 day EMA which has happened for the first time after April 2009 indicating weakness so all this are pointing towards further downwards from current levels.

Elliotte wave Analysis:

As I have mentioned earlier nifty has exactly corrected up to 23.60% of the total rise from March 2009. And I have been mentioning in my earlier write ups that, if we are correcting entire rise then we have chances of correcting minimum of 50% to 61.80%. Considering this we might see the markets correcting some where between 3500 to 3900. so be prepared for the ride.
if we consider that now the market would retracing the fall from January high. Then we are exactly at the 23.60% retracement which happens to be at 4826 and the if nifty moves above it we have next resistance at 4918 and then 4993 and formidable resistance at 5068 which happens to be 61.8% retracement. Generally markets react from 61.8% retracement when it has just started correction. Currently 100 day EMA is at 4919 and 50 day EMA is at 4990 so these might offer some resistances when nifty tries to move up.
Positives for Nifty:
• Market is above 200 day EMA.
Negatives for nifty:
• Nifty is below 15 day, 50 day and 100 day EMA.
• Nifty has also moved below the 15 week EMA for the first time in last 11 months.
• 15 day EMA has moved below 100 day EMA for the first time after April 2009
• Daily MACD is in sell mode.
• Weekly MACD and TRIX are still in sell mode.
• -ve Divergence in RSI on weekly and daily charts.
• DMI has given a sell signal and has moved above 20 indicating that the down ward movement has set in and further downs sides are not ruled out
Directional Momentum index – (DMI)
DMI indicates the strength of the current trend whether up or down. During the last few week –D1 moved above +D1 indicating strength of bears. DMI has moved above 40 indicating considerable strength of the bears so considering this every rise should be taken as an opportunity to book profit or go short.
Pivot point analysis:
Nifty is above pivot point at 4782 so till it maintains above that we have chances of seeing it moving towards 4887 and 4949 if it fails to sustain at 4782 we might see market moving towards 4615.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 14th February 2010, Time 19.12 IST
Trend is friend

From today onwards i would be posting the new technique of trading which is the flow technique. the technique i would be explaining in my future writings.

for tommorow the as per flow technique the below chart is give below. From tomorrow i would be giving bank nifty also.

nifty weekly techncial update

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 6th February 2010.

Movement of nifty during the week was on expected lines. Nifty opened on weak note then slightly gained strength and there after collapsed on the last two days of the week. One of the noticing features of the week is that nifty move up and found resistance at 100 day EMA and then collapsed towards 200 day EMA. Failure of nifty to move past 100 day EMA is an indication of weakness of the market and as of now 100 day EMA would offer resistance for the future up moves. So as of now 100 day EMA would be the major hurdle to break which happens to be at 4934. It is the first time the nifty has moved below 100 day EMA after moving above it in last week of March 2009. If seen historically for the last five years it can be seen that whenever market has moved below 100 day EMA it stayed below it for at-least 5 to 6 months and in 2008 it stayed below 100 day EMA for 15 months. Considering this we can assume market staying below it for at-least next 6 months so we can assume the market moving downwards at-least upto July 2010 so just wait for the market reversal to make money. The movement of market below 100 day EMA after March 2009 i.e. after nearly 11 months is a clear indication that markets have turned weak and they are further poised to move down. One of the noticing feature movements during the last two weeks is the 15 day EMA has moved blow 50 day EMA for the first time after March 2009 indicating weakness. During the last fall when ever 15 day EMA has moved below 50 day EMA nifty has fallen by at-least 1200 points. Going by this we should seen nifty falling at-least 1200 points from current levels so we should easily fall to 3800 levels.
One of the noticing feature of the this week’s fall is that nifty has take support at just at 200 day EMA. 200 day EMA happens to be at around 4650 and nifty has now made a low of 4692 during the week. During the last fall in January 2009 nifty took support at 200 day EMA for nearly two months and then collapsed. Now we have to see whether the same would happen this time also. Generally history repeats itself and in technical analysis it has proven correct most to the times. So this is the case we might see the market moving between 100 day and 200 day EMA for at-least for next one month. So we have to prepare for the same.
Nifty is still maintaining below 15 day EMA which is giving an indication that at every rise we should sell. 15 day EMA happens to be at 4950 so till market is below that we should see for an opportunity to short the market. It may be noted that 100 day EMA is also at 4935. Any rise of the market from current levels should find resistance at 4950 levels. so there are the levels where in the markets would reverse. So keep a close watch when the market reaches these levels.

It can be seen from the above weekly chart nifty has formed three black candles, the pattern is known as “Three Black Crows” in Candle and Stick Parlace Generally a sign of extreme bearishness in the market and it does not require confirmation. On of the noticing feature of the pattern is that once the three black crows is that market generally recovers 50 to 61.8% of the fall and then tanks viciously. Considering this we can assume market might rise around 300 points from low of 4692 and then fall so we might see market moving towards 5000 and then fall. So keep a watch on the same.
Market technically is in an extremely oversold condition and historically when it has gone to such over sold levels markets of bounced back with vengeance and then collapsed. So this is also pointing that we might see nifty might moving up in the coming week. So be prepared for it.
Positives for Nifty:
• Market is above 200 day EMA.
Negatives for nifty:
• Nifty is below 15 day, 50 day and 100 day EMA.
• Nifty has also moved below the 15 week EMA for the first time in last 11 months.
• Daily MACD is in sell mode.
• Weekly MACD and TRIX are still in sell mode.
• DMI has given a sell signal and has moved above 20 indicating that the down ward movement has set in and further downs sides are not ruled out
Elliott wave analysis:

As per Elliott wave it appears the trend might has turned down and we might be heading down wards. I have indicated in my earlier monthly analysis the probable alternatives and in the next week I would again give the probable formation and structure and the targets. But today I would be giving the minimum targets which markets have to achieve if the reversal is correct. As per the Elliott wave if market is correcting the entire rise from March 2009 then we have the minimum target of 4650 and in my view it should be 4246 which is the 38.1% retracement. If we seen historically nifty has corrected anywhere between 50 to 61.8% when the nifty has corrected after substantial rise. so the total rise of nifty is around 2800 points so we might see a fall of either 1400 points or 1730 points thus giving a target of 3900 and 3500 so we have still a way to go before market reverses. The two probable patterns which I have indicated nearly three months back would again be discussed in next week’s update with probable targets. At present these targets appears to be impossible and history has shown that these targets are finally met.
Directional Momentum index – (DMI)
DMI indicates the strength of the current trend whether up or down. Presently –D1 is above +D 1 indicating the strength of the market. DMI has moved above 20 during last week and it has moved from 27 to 34, movement above 30 has further strengthened the strength of the bears and we can safely assume that further swift fall are not ruled out. As the current trend is down it indicates that strength of down trend is increasing and bears are gaining upper hand and they would further push the market down.
Pivot Point Trading Strategy:
Pivot point for the next week is around 4787 if nifty fails to move above this we have fair chances of seeing 4623 and 4528 if 4787 is taken out then we can see 4882 and 5046 so trade accordingly. Monthly pivot is around 4983( which might offer some resistance) if nifty fails to move past during this month we can see 4665 and 4448 so trade accordingly.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 7th February 2010, Time 17.02 IST
Trend is friend

state bank of India:

Nifty update

Find here with some interesting facts about niftys current bearishness.

M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is friend

From today onwards i am herewith furnishing the My new trading system which is propose to follow for next two months and see the results. I would be furnishing both the trend and also the daily reversal value.

M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is friend

nifty

Nifty update

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