Nifty Daily Swing trades for 1st April 2009

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in sell mode and the trend will reverse on move above the 3067 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way to 2971/2922 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2728. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend – Sell ( sell generated at 3108)
Reversal Value - 3067.
Bankex

Current Price - 4093(future)
Current Trend – Sell (reversed to sell at 4165)
Reversal Value - 4194

It may be noted that nifty has again moved above 100 Day EMA today and is just placed at 100 Day EMA. If Fibonacci is applied nifty has gone below the 23% level and not headed towards 38.2% which appears to be at 2910 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards 2839 and 2768(all the levels are that of future).

M.Sri Mahidar

Tuesday 31st March 2009, Time 8.30 P.M IST

Nifty Daily Swing Trade as on 30th March 2009

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in sell mode( reversed yesterday) and the trend will reverse on move above the 3140 level (future). As per swing trade it appears that nifty is on its way to 2915 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2728. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.

Current trend – Sell ( sell generated at 3108)
Reversal Value - 3140.

BankexCurrent Price - 4025(future)
Current Trend – Sell ( reversed to sell at 4165)
Reversal Value - 4428

It may be noted that nifty has again moved below the 100 Day EMA. The EMA did not offer any resistance indicating that bears have gained upper hand firmly and we have chances of expecting further down sides and we have also chances of going below the 2900 level. If Fibonacci is applied nifty has gone below the 23% level and not headed towards 38.2% which appears to be at 2910 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards 2839 and 2768(all the levels are that of future).

M.Sri Mahidar
31st March 2009 Time 7.30 A.M IST

Nifty Weekly Update for week Ended 28th March 2009

Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 28th March 2009.
Nifty has surprised every body during the week and went on to make a 11% gain during the week to close at 3108 after making a high of 3123. One noticing feature of the rise is that the rise is on very high volumes signifying that the rise may be genuine. I have mentioned during the last week that if nifty moves past 2969 during the week then it indicates that the recovery was faster that that of the fall. The fall from 2969 to 2525 took 15 days and the rise above 2969 from 2525 took only 10 days signifying that bulls are gaining upper hand. The faster retracement is giving an indication that some important Elliotte wave might have completed at 2525.Another noticing feature is that nifty have moved comfortably above 3000 and now it has placed at 3108 just below the January 09 high of 3149. Another feature is that may be noted is that nifty has made a highest closing after 17th of October 2008, so nifty has made a highest closing after nearly 5 months( remember 5 is a Fibonacci). Another noticing feature is that nifty has comfortably moved above 50 day and 100 day EMA and is now also placed above the 100 day EMA which is at 3000. The ease at which it has broken the 100 Day EMA is giving an indication that we might be in for a surprise for bulls. 100 Day EMA has been a formidable resistance for the last 15 months and this time it has been violated at just one go. Considering this, we can comfortably say that 100 day EMA now becomes a good support level any violation of the same i.e3000 currently will not be a good sign for bulls. In the month of October also it has been violated briefly and then when it moved below the 100 day EMA all the hell broke loose and nifty fell by nearly 2000 points. This time the situation is different but if 100 day EMA is violated on down side nothing can be ruled out. It appears that nifty is heading towards the 200 day EMA which is placed at 3400 it appears that nifty is going to find a formidable resistance at 200 day EMA.

It can be seen from the above is that nifty is moving in a channel and now is placed at top end of the channel and appears that it has possible chances of correcting towards the support line which is placed at 3000.
It can be seen from the above chart that nifty has been finding it difficult to move above the sloping trend line drawn from to of 6357 and this time also it is just nearing the same which is placed at 3200-3225 level any failure of the same has all chances of taking nifty towards the support line which is placed at around 2500-2550. So in the coming month 3140 and 3200 appears to be formidable resistances for nifty.
Also in shorter term nifty appears to be in extremely over bought zone and it appears that it will be difficult for nifty to go past 3200 in this rise, it might correct from these levels towards 2900 or so and then it might make an attempt at 3200 level.

Elliotte wave analysis:
Last week I have mentioned that any move of nifty above 3000 will negate the implication of a triangle. As nifty has successfully conquered 3000 the implications of triangle pattern are ruled out and the pattern is not clear at this point of time. Either it is a fifth wave failure which I have indicated as the third wave appears to be elongated or the pattern is yet to complete as it might be forming double flat we have to wait and see I will be furnishing the same once I get the clear indication by the movement of nifty.

Directional Momentum index
Last week I have indicated that +D has moved above the –D1 line indicating that bulls are taking center stage, and the same seems to have happened DMI has moved from 19.67 to around 28 levels indicating that bulls have gained firm upper hand.

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 3008 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 3008 will pave way for 2845 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2697. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 3008.

Bankex
Current Price - 4402(future)
Current Trend - Buy
Reversal Value – 4165 any breach of the same has chances of taking nifty towards 3700 levels.
BEML – Rs.400

It appears that BEML is about to give a buy signal on movement above 400 once it moves above 400 it will make a 19 week high. The volumes are suggesting that some amount of buying is going into the stock and we might see a good up side movement in the stock once it is past 400 level. Technically there are no resistance levels for the stock except at Rs.800. So once it Rs.400 is taken out we have chances of the stock advancing towards 800 in quick time. But in that case 400 should be straight stop loss.

Resistances: 3141/3200/3250
Supports: 3000/2850/2757/2525

M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 29th-Mar-09, Time 7.00 PM IST

Nifty Swing Trading strategy for 27th March 2009

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 2923 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 2923 will pave way for 2757 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2525. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 2923.

Bankex
Current Price - 4285(future)
Current Trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 3990

Important thing to be noted is that nifty has broken above the sloping trend line from the top of january 2008 and has successfully moved above the 100 Day EMA both of which it has failed to break atleast two to three times during the last 15 months of so. As it has been broken and also with volumes indicates that the down trend has been broken and we might see a good healthy up move in nifty/Indices unless nifty moves below the trend line and also 100 Day EMA both of which are placed at 3000 every dips should be taken as an opportunity to go long.Another point to be noted is that nifty has made a -ve divergence in the hourly chart( indicated in the chart below) and also in extremely over bought in intraday charts all these are indicating towards possible short term correction in indices which has chances of taking nifty below the 3000 level so be prepared accordingly

Swing Trade as on 25 March 2008

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 2915 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 2915 will pave way for 2757 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2525. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 2915.
Bankex
Current Price - 4123(future)
Current Trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 3978
Important things which has happened technically during last three days

nifty has successfully moved above the 20 day and 50 Day EMA and is now just placed at the door steps of 100 day EMA. During the last one year from January 2008 fall nifty has reversed in a big way on touching the 100 Day EMA or on moving just above the 100 Day EMA and reversed instentaniously. So we have to be watch full in trading for the next two days. if 100 Day EMA is taken our successfully then nifty might make an attempt at the november high of 3240.

Another point to be noted is that nifty has moved above the year to date pivot which is currently at 2890. As year to date pivot is taken out on positive side R1 is place at 3241( which happens ot be November high also). Any movement below this will signal the end of the current up trend.

Another point to be noted is that the rise on last two days is on high volumes, which is giving an indication that good amount of buying might be taking place/ any selling taking place? we have to wait and see what is instore.

Nifty Swing Trade 24th Sep 2009

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 2845 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 2845 will pave way for 2757 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2525. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 2845.

BankexCurrent Price - 4002(future)
Current Trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 3721

Swing Trade after close of 23rd March

Nifty Swing Trade:
As per two day swing trade currently it is in buy mode and the trend will reverse on move below the 2773 level (future). As per swing trade any move below 2773 will pave way for 2697 and any breach of the same has all chances of nifty moving towards the 2525. The points being discussed in the swing trade are that of the future.
Current trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 2773.
Bankex
Current Price - 3940
Current Trend - Buy
Reversal Value - 3665