Thursday, January 20, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 16th January 2011.
Nifty opened on a weak note and continued to be weak for the entire week and the closing was near the low of the week which is clearly indicating that bulls have lost ground and bears are continuing to strangle bulls. It appears that bears are having upper hand and it appears that it might continue it to some time to come. There are so many technical events which are happing and which are pointing towards the probable top of the market has already in place and we might have started down trend which might last for long time that what has been seen in last 22 months. So if new high is not made in the coming month or two then it would confirm that top has been formed. It has not indicating that formation of top but confirmation of the same is pending. So we have to wait for confirmation of the same. One of the important technical events that have taken place during the last two weeks is worth noting and are indicating towards probable top is already in place. Nifty has for the first time in last 22 months has formed a lower high and is followed by lower low which is clearly indicating that we might have topped out. Till now in this bulls market we have not formed a lower low and this time we have formed the same indicating that the trend might have turned down. Another important technical event which is pointing towards further weakness is that nifty has moved below 50 day EMA and also 100 day EMA and is finding resistance at 100 day EMA which is pointing towards weakness. Nifty is not exactly placed at 200 day EMA and we have to see whether long term funds would offer support to the market if not then we can assumed that up trend is certainly over. From April 2009 onwards markets have not closed below the 200 day EMA on weekly basis we have to see whether we would see the phenomenon now. The break of the 200 day EMA on weekly basis does clearly point towards probable top and also long term funds are not offering support to the market and further down sides are not ruled out.So the next one to two weeks are going to be crucial as the market is going to give a crucial support or a break down.
I have been pointing towards market topping in January from last so many months and is appears that this time also market has turned down in January. I have been indicating from so many months that market has been raising for 21 months and after completion of the same the market has all the possible chances of falling/reversing the trend and the market has exactly turned after completion of 21 months( where 21 appears to be a Fibonacci). Another historical thing which is prudent to note at this point of time is that when ever market has rise for 21 months or so it has corrected by nearly 70% of the total rise or of that wave. In the present case the market has risen from 2539 to a high of 6338 a rise of around 3800 points so as per this time analysis we have to correct around 70% of the 3800 so a fall of at-least 2660 points from the top of 6338 so the target comes to around 3678 for nifty so considering this nifty should fall by another 2000 points. So be prepared for the fall and don’t say that you have not been warned.
The below chart is clearly indicating formation of lower low and also lower high shown by blue arrows. This is indicating that trend might have turned down so till higher high and higher low is formed the trend would be down. It can also be seen in the chart that nifty is exactly at 200 day EMA ( indicated by blue MA).
Nifty opened on a weak note and continued to be weak for the entire week and the closing was near the low of the week which is clearly indicating that bulls have lost ground and bears are continuing to strangle bulls. It appears that bears are having upper hand and it appears that it might continue it to some time to come. There are so many technical events which are happing and which are pointing towards the probable top of the market has already in place and we might have started down trend which might last for long time that what has been seen in last 22 months. So if new high is not made in the coming month or two then it would confirm that top has been formed. It has not indicating that formation of top but confirmation of the same is pending. So we have to wait for confirmation of the same. One of the important technical events that have taken place during the last two weeks is worth noting and are indicating towards probable top is already in place. Nifty has for the first time in last 22 months has formed a lower high and is followed by lower low which is clearly indicating that we might have topped out. Till now in this bulls market we have not formed a lower low and this time we have formed the same indicating that the trend might have turned down. Another important technical event which is pointing towards further weakness is that nifty has moved below 50 day EMA and also 100 day EMA and is finding resistance at 100 day EMA which is pointing towards weakness. Nifty is not exactly placed at 200 day EMA and we have to see whether long term funds would offer support to the market if not then we can assumed that up trend is certainly over. From April 2009 onwards markets have not closed below the 200 day EMA on weekly basis we have to see whether we would see the phenomenon now. The break of the 200 day EMA on weekly basis does clearly point towards probable top and also long term funds are not offering support to the market and further down sides are not ruled out.So the next one to two weeks are going to be crucial as the market is going to give a crucial support or a break down.
I have been pointing towards market topping in January from last so many months and is appears that this time also market has turned down in January. I have been indicating from so many months that market has been raising for 21 months and after completion of the same the market has all the possible chances of falling/reversing the trend and the market has exactly turned after completion of 21 months( where 21 appears to be a Fibonacci). Another historical thing which is prudent to note at this point of time is that when ever market has rise for 21 months or so it has corrected by nearly 70% of the total rise or of that wave. In the present case the market has risen from 2539 to a high of 6338 a rise of around 3800 points so as per this time analysis we have to correct around 70% of the 3800 so a fall of at-least 2660 points from the top of 6338 so the target comes to around 3678 for nifty so considering this nifty should fall by another 2000 points. So be prepared for the fall and don’t say that you have not been warned.
The below chart is clearly indicating formation of lower low and also lower high shown by blue arrows. This is indicating that trend might have turned down so till higher high and higher low is formed the trend would be down. It can also be seen in the chart that nifty is exactly at 200 day EMA ( indicated by blue MA).
Positives for the market: · Nifty is above 200 day EMA
· Daily stochastic oscillator is in oversold position and is about to turn up.
Negatives for the market:
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Nifty is below 15 day EMA, 50 day EMA, 100 day EMA
· It has closed above 50 day EMA indicating strength for the bulls.
· Daily and weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating further weakness.
· Weekly stochastic oscillator is in sell mode and is moving down indicating that every rise would be sold into.
Elliott wave analysis:
I have provided two alternative in my previous update a and it appears that the first one has proved right in this I have indicated that we might have see a rise up to 6200 levels and then we might move down and has chances of seeing 5200 levels and exactly as per this nifty has made a high of 6181 and thereafter started to move down and not placed at around 5650 and we have to see whether 5200 is achieved or not.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, January, 16th 16:20 IST
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Monday, December 27, 2010
Nifty Weekly Update
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 25th December 2010.
Nifty opened on a positive note but not a strong note and weekly close was nearly at the high of the week indicating some strength for bulls. One of the strongest point to be noted is that during the entire week the market did not go below the low of the previous weeks indicating that bulls were successful in keeping the bears away and their strength would be know or proved only if in the coming week if they take market further up and probably above 6100 which bears are finding difficult to break. In the coming week 6100 would be the lakshman rekha for the bulls and if it is taken out then bears would run for shelter. So keep a close watch on 6100 which would be make or break for bulls. Another point of strength for the market is that market was able to move above 50 day EMA has been able to maintain above it, thus now 50 day EMA would act as support for the nifty and till it stays above it we have all chances of nifty moving up and breach of the same would be disastrous for the bulls and it happens to be at 5957 so on lower side it should offer support. So nifty seems to be having resistance at 6100 and support at 5957 so any movement on either side would have huge impact on bulls or bears considering on which side it breaks out. If nifty moves above 6100 then it has chances of taking the market towards 6200 levels. So we have to see whether the market would move and close above those levels or not. i have been mentioning from so many months that we would be completing 21 months of continues rise in November 2010 and chances of market correcting there after and also historically market have rise for a maximum period of 23 months and second highest rise was for 21 months. And we now we have completed exactly 21 months of continues rise and we have entered the 22 months. We have made high in 21st month and started to correct from that month only. Historically we have not see markets correction starting in the month of November. What has happened historically is that markets have corrected in the month of November and in December upto first half of January the markets rise and there after the market falls. We have to see whether the same phenomenon repeats this time also .if this has to happen then we should see the market raising up and making a new high or just go near the high and then fall very fast in the month of January 2010.
One point which I have indicated during the last week is that nifty has broken the 21month trend line which is bearish for the market and is still below that line only indicating that bulls are loosing strength but has to confirm it by forming a lower low and still not confirmed the same. Any close blow 5300 only would confirm the bearishness for the market.
Positives for the market:
· Nifty is above 15 day EMA( moved above this during the week), 100 day EMA and 200 day EMA
· It has closed above 50 day EMA indicating strength for the bulls.
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal indicating/strengthening bulls and pointing towards further upside movement in the market. In the current uptrend whenever MACD has given a buy signal nifty has moved by around 250 to 300 points whether the same would happen this time also only time would tell.
· Weekly stochastic oscillators is in buy mode indicating strength of bulls.
Negatives for the market:
· Nifty is exactly at 50 day EMA whether it would offer as resistance now or not we have to see.
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Daily stochastic is in sell mode indicating that bears has in short term gained upper hand but as the weekly stochastic is in buy mode it seems to indicate that every sell might be bought into.
Wolf wave:
One interesting pattern which majority of analyst’s seems to have over looked is the wolf wave(WW) principle. This is one of the power full pattern which gives the clear indication probable bear market in a raising market and bull market in a bear market. The bullish pattern was formed in October 2008 ( peak of bear market)when everything around and everybody was talking about perennial bear market and confirmed in march 2009 and you know after that we have see a very long bullish market .
Nifty opened on a positive note but not a strong note and weekly close was nearly at the high of the week indicating some strength for bulls. One of the strongest point to be noted is that during the entire week the market did not go below the low of the previous weeks indicating that bulls were successful in keeping the bears away and their strength would be know or proved only if in the coming week if they take market further up and probably above 6100 which bears are finding difficult to break. In the coming week 6100 would be the lakshman rekha for the bulls and if it is taken out then bears would run for shelter. So keep a close watch on 6100 which would be make or break for bulls. Another point of strength for the market is that market was able to move above 50 day EMA has been able to maintain above it, thus now 50 day EMA would act as support for the nifty and till it stays above it we have all chances of nifty moving up and breach of the same would be disastrous for the bulls and it happens to be at 5957 so on lower side it should offer support. So nifty seems to be having resistance at 6100 and support at 5957 so any movement on either side would have huge impact on bulls or bears considering on which side it breaks out. If nifty moves above 6100 then it has chances of taking the market towards 6200 levels. So we have to see whether the market would move and close above those levels or not. i have been mentioning from so many months that we would be completing 21 months of continues rise in November 2010 and chances of market correcting there after and also historically market have rise for a maximum period of 23 months and second highest rise was for 21 months. And we now we have completed exactly 21 months of continues rise and we have entered the 22 months. We have made high in 21st month and started to correct from that month only. Historically we have not see markets correction starting in the month of November. What has happened historically is that markets have corrected in the month of November and in December upto first half of January the markets rise and there after the market falls. We have to see whether the same phenomenon repeats this time also .if this has to happen then we should see the market raising up and making a new high or just go near the high and then fall very fast in the month of January 2010.
One point which I have indicated during the last week is that nifty has broken the 21month trend line which is bearish for the market and is still below that line only indicating that bulls are loosing strength but has to confirm it by forming a lower low and still not confirmed the same. Any close blow 5300 only would confirm the bearishness for the market.
Positives for the market:
· Nifty is above 15 day EMA( moved above this during the week), 100 day EMA and 200 day EMA
· It has closed above 50 day EMA indicating strength for the bulls.
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal indicating/strengthening bulls and pointing towards further upside movement in the market. In the current uptrend whenever MACD has given a buy signal nifty has moved by around 250 to 300 points whether the same would happen this time also only time would tell.
· Weekly stochastic oscillators is in buy mode indicating strength of bulls.
Negatives for the market:
· Nifty is exactly at 50 day EMA whether it would offer as resistance now or not we have to see.
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Daily stochastic is in sell mode indicating that bears has in short term gained upper hand but as the weekly stochastic is in buy mode it seems to indicate that every sell might be bought into.
Wolf wave:
One interesting pattern which majority of analyst’s seems to have over looked is the wolf wave(WW) principle. This is one of the power full pattern which gives the clear indication probable bear market in a raising market and bull market in a bear market. The bullish pattern was formed in October 2008 ( peak of bear market)when everything around and everybody was talking about perennial bear market and confirmed in march 2009 and you know after that we have see a very long bullish market .
Now it seems to have formed WW pattern and that too a bearish pattern but it is yet to confirm the same. I am now waiting for confirmation of the same. Once it is confirmed then bulls would run for shelter. One of the advantages about the pattern is that it also gives the target after the confirmation of the trend or the pattern. And believe you this time also the target is there but it would frighten bulls away and the target is somewhere” hold your breath” around 3200-3400 levels. You or anybody would not believe the target and would not heed to same. But believe me if the pattern is confirmed then we have all probable chances of seeing the target confirmed. Now you would be having a question as to when would the pattern be confirmed? yes it would be clearly be anybodies question. I would not maintain suspense, any weekly closely preferably monthly close below 5650 would levels would confirm the pattern. Bulls should hope the market not to close below that level any close below the same then they would run for shelter. So as far as bulls are concerned as per this pattern 5650 would be the lakshman rekha, till they are above that they would not have any problem once taken out it would be end of the bull market and bulls would be running for cover and we would be seeing nifty falling by atleast 2500 points from those levels. so watch out for 5650.
Elliott wave analysis:
The two alternative which I have indicated in my last week’s update still hold good and they are provided hereunder.. Under the alternative -1 we might have made a top in November at 6350 and we might have started the down move and we might see market moving up till around 6100-6200 levels and then moving down to around 5200 levels at-least.
Under alternative -2 it appears that we might have completed the wave-4 of the wave -5 and we might have just started the wave-5 of wave-5 and we should see whether it would take the market to a new high or not. If a new high is not made it would indicate a 5th wave failure and we can see market tanking from those levels. Till 5700 is not taken out this option would hold good if broken then the option one would hold good.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, December 26, 2010 20:09 IST
Monday, December 20, 2010
Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 18th December 2010.
Nifty opened on a strong note and has maintained at those levels whole during the week. One of the positive things during the week is that the market has closed nearly at the top during the week and also during the week it has not moved below the low of the week indicating the bulls were successful in maintaining at higher levels thus indicating their strength. It is appearing technically that the market might move up from current levels. Nifty has to move above 6069 to indicate further strength in the market any close above that on weekly basis has chances of taking the market towards 6200 levels. So we have to see whether the market would move and close above those levels or not. i have been mentioning from so many months that we would be completing 21 months of continues rise in November 2010 and chances of market correcting there after and also historically market have rise for a maximum period of 23 months and second highest rise was for 21 months. And we now we have completed exactly 21 months of continues rise and we have entered the 22 months. We have made high in 21st month and started to correct from that month only. Historically we have not see markets correction starting in the month of November. What has happened historically is that markets have corrected in the month of November and in December upto first half of January the markets rise and there after the market falls. We have to see whether the same phenomenon repeats this time also.if this has to happen then we should see the market raising up and making a new high or just go near the high and then fall very fast in the month of January 2010.
One of the point which is indicating the strength of the bears is that the market has broke the 21months trend line in the month of November. This is a very bearish indicating shows the strength of the bulls. Nifty has to move above that trend line to indicate any strength of bulls. This phenomenon has been observed three time earlier also in the last one year where in the trend line has been broken but the market has not corrected significantly and still there are maintaining below that trend lines.
Nifty opened on a strong note and has maintained at those levels whole during the week. One of the positive things during the week is that the market has closed nearly at the top during the week and also during the week it has not moved below the low of the week indicating the bulls were successful in maintaining at higher levels thus indicating their strength. It is appearing technically that the market might move up from current levels. Nifty has to move above 6069 to indicate further strength in the market any close above that on weekly basis has chances of taking the market towards 6200 levels. So we have to see whether the market would move and close above those levels or not. i have been mentioning from so many months that we would be completing 21 months of continues rise in November 2010 and chances of market correcting there after and also historically market have rise for a maximum period of 23 months and second highest rise was for 21 months. And we now we have completed exactly 21 months of continues rise and we have entered the 22 months. We have made high in 21st month and started to correct from that month only. Historically we have not see markets correction starting in the month of November. What has happened historically is that markets have corrected in the month of November and in December upto first half of January the markets rise and there after the market falls. We have to see whether the same phenomenon repeats this time also.if this has to happen then we should see the market raising up and making a new high or just go near the high and then fall very fast in the month of January 2010.
One of the point which is indicating the strength of the bears is that the market has broke the 21months trend line in the month of November. This is a very bearish indicating shows the strength of the bulls. Nifty has to move above that trend line to indicate any strength of bulls. This phenomenon has been observed three time earlier also in the last one year where in the trend line has been broken but the market has not corrected significantly and still there are maintaining below that trend lines.
It can be seen from the above chart that nifty has clearly broke the 21 month trend line and 21 happens to be a Fibonacci so the breakdown can be genuine so we have to see whether nifty move below or not.
It can be seen from the above chart that the nifty has given a break out in September 2010 and after that the same trend should offer itself as support and not it can be seen that it is clearly offering support at present so till this trend line (support line) is held there should be not problem for bulls and we can have all possible chances of nifty or market conquering new highs. So this trend line(support line) is crucial for the market. The trend line appears to be around 5700 levels so till this level is held there should be no problem for bulls and the day it is taken out we can see a very very steep and violent fall in the market. Till then bulls would enjoy the market.
Positives for the market:
· Nifty is above 15 day EMA( moved above this during the week), 100 day EMA and 200 day EMA
· It is exactly placed at the 50 day EMA any move or close above it would strengthen bulls.
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal indicating/strengthening bulls and pointing towards further upside movement in the market.
· Daily and weekly stochastic oscillators are in buy mode indicating strength of bulls.
Negatives for the market:
· Nifty is exactly at 50 day EMA whether it would offer as resistance now or not we have to see.
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
Elliott wave analysis
I have indicated in my earlier update as per Elliott wave we have targets of around 6470, 6850 and 7140. We have to see whether the same would be achieved or not. if the market now moves up 6470 would offer a good amount of resistance from current levels.
There are two alternatives for the market as per Elliott wave which are furnished in the chart below:
The two alternative as per Elliott are furnished above. Under the alternative -1 we might have made a top in November at 6350 and we might have started the down move and we might see market moving up till around 6100-6200 levels and then moving down to around 5200 levels at-least.
Under alternative -2 it appears that we might have completed the wave-4 of the wave -5 and we might have just started the wave-5 of wave-5 and we should see whether it would take the market to a new high or not. If a new high is not made it would indicate a 5th wave failure and we can see market tanking from those levels. Till 5700 is not taken out this option would hold good if broken then the option one would hold good.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Monday, December 13, 2010
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