Nifty Weekly Technical Update for week ended September 10th, 2009.
Nifty opened weak during the week and continued to move down and finally closed at lowest point of the week. Out of five days nifty closed three days above 5000 and two days below 5000. This is clearly indicating that there is tremendous fight going between bulls and bears and who ever wins there will be big movement in that side. So keeps a close watch as we have a very good profit opportunity waiting for us. Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA which is at 4926.Nifty has violated the 15 day low EMA only twice in the last seven months showing the strength of the support. And also nifty is above the 50 day EMA which is at 4752. During the last seven months 50 day EMA has been violated only for three days giving the strength of support. So now we are closely at these averages. So presently 4926 and 4752 become very important support levels the violation of the second support level will indicated that the current Bull Run might have ended. Once nifty moves below 4926 then we should take an opportunity to short every rise till the 15 day EMA is violated on higher side. So this week is going to be very crucial week for deciding the fate of the bulls. One point may be noted is that nifty has closed below the low of the earlier week. During the previous week the low was at 4959 and nifty closed below it at 4945 during the current week. Such an event has happened only twice during the last seven months and this is the third such event. So better watch out. As per Fibonacci we are just completing 7 months and during the coming week we will be entering the 8th months. And as per Fibonacci we have chances of market correcting at the end of the eight month or just after completing it. So we have to be watch full.
It may be noted that any breach of 4700 should be taken as an opportunity to come into cash no matter what the stock is as it will signal the end of the current bull run.
Positives for the market
• Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA and 50 day EMA.
• DMI is moving up on weekly charts.
• The trend line of the rise is still intact.
Negative for market.
• -ve divergances still exists in oscillators – ROC, RSI, Elder bull ray
• Volumes are not still increasing.
• DMI is moving down on daily charts giving an indication that bulls are becoming weak.
Elliott wave analysis:
Last week I have clearly indicated the wave structure and there appears to be no change to my wave structure so nothing new to mention in this week. As per elliotte wave structure I have given target of 5195 and 5520 and both targets are yet to be attained and we have chances of seeing at-least 5195 in near term if it is taken out then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 5520. So watch accordingly.
Nifty opened weak during the week and continued to move down and finally closed at lowest point of the week. Out of five days nifty closed three days above 5000 and two days below 5000. This is clearly indicating that there is tremendous fight going between bulls and bears and who ever wins there will be big movement in that side. So keeps a close watch as we have a very good profit opportunity waiting for us. Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA which is at 4926.Nifty has violated the 15 day low EMA only twice in the last seven months showing the strength of the support. And also nifty is above the 50 day EMA which is at 4752. During the last seven months 50 day EMA has been violated only for three days giving the strength of support. So now we are closely at these averages. So presently 4926 and 4752 become very important support levels the violation of the second support level will indicated that the current Bull Run might have ended. Once nifty moves below 4926 then we should take an opportunity to short every rise till the 15 day EMA is violated on higher side. So this week is going to be very crucial week for deciding the fate of the bulls. One point may be noted is that nifty has closed below the low of the earlier week. During the previous week the low was at 4959 and nifty closed below it at 4945 during the current week. Such an event has happened only twice during the last seven months and this is the third such event. So better watch out. As per Fibonacci we are just completing 7 months and during the coming week we will be entering the 8th months. And as per Fibonacci we have chances of market correcting at the end of the eight month or just after completing it. So we have to be watch full.
It may be noted that any breach of 4700 should be taken as an opportunity to come into cash no matter what the stock is as it will signal the end of the current bull run.
Positives for the market
• Nifty is still above the 15 day low EMA and 50 day EMA.
• DMI is moving up on weekly charts.
• The trend line of the rise is still intact.
Negative for market.
• -ve divergances still exists in oscillators – ROC, RSI, Elder bull ray
• Volumes are not still increasing.
• DMI is moving down on daily charts giving an indication that bulls are becoming weak.
Elliott wave analysis:
Last week I have clearly indicated the wave structure and there appears to be no change to my wave structure so nothing new to mention in this week. As per elliotte wave structure I have given target of 5195 and 5520 and both targets are yet to be attained and we have chances of seeing at-least 5195 in near term if it is taken out then we have all chances of nifty moving towards 5520. So watch accordingly.
Directional Momentum Index:
DMI is has moved from around 31.50 to 27.48 after giving a positing buy indication i.e. movement of +D1 over –D1 and also +D1 is moving down and –D1 is moving up indicating that bears are slowly becoming active. After moving above 30 DMI has again moved below 30 this is not a good news for bulls. It is clearly giving an indication that even though bulls have upper hand now they are clearly loosing ground.
Pivot point analysis:
Nifty has moved exactly as per my last weeks indication. Nifty moved below the 5051 pivot point and then fell down and also moved below the S1 and is moving towards S2. but for the current week the pivot is at 4981 and nifty is below it indicating weakness and also chances of moving towards 4885 if nifty bounces from 4885 then we have chances of seeing 5041. so the range for the coming weeks should be 4825 and 5041Turtle Trading:
Turtle Trading - 20 day Phenomenon (gave buy indication at 4743)
Current trend – buy
Go long above – in buy mode
Square off - 4904
Go short below: 4784
ATR at 80
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 11th October 2009 Time 6:47:20 PM IST.
Trend is friend
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