Nifty Weekly Update for week ended 30th April, 2009.
Nifty on Monday opened on a positive note moved up and then collapsed late on Monday and Tuesday and there after on Wednesday bulls came back with vengeance and took every body by surprise. Nifty is flirting with 200 day EMA for the last two weeks when ever it’s moving below the 200 day EMA the bulls are coming back with vengeance and taking the nifty above that. But it may be noted that nifty is struggling to move above the 3500 mark so unless and other wise nifty move and close above 3500 longs should not be initiated, any shorts should be closed when ever nifty closes above 3500 without any argument. There neutral zone between 3400 and 3500 and any move below 3400 should encourage bears to take nifty towards 3300 it appears that nifty has formed a temporary support at 3300 levels as good buying pressure is coming in when ever indices reach that level. It may be noted that nifty is moving up with higher tops and bottoms and any close below 3300 will violate that and bears might become move active and try to take nifty toward 3250 to 3150 where in the buying pressure should come. One point may be noted that indices are moving up with –ve divergence of RSI and also Momentum oscillators indicating that the rise in the market lacks conviction. It may also be noted that the nifty has moved up during the week with –ve divergence of Elder bull ray indicating that indices are moving up without the support of bulls and we have chances of market reversing and moving down in the coming week. Another point to be noted is that nifty has completed 8 weeks of continues rise and eight happens to be a fiboancci and also as there are –ve divergences we can expect a correction in the coming week. If nifty on weekly basis closes on a positive basis during the current weeks also we can see nifty raising for another four weeks to complete the next Fibonacci of 13. So the coming week is going to be decisive one to decide the course of the market for the next one month. So keep your fingers crossed.
Nifty on Monday opened on a positive note moved up and then collapsed late on Monday and Tuesday and there after on Wednesday bulls came back with vengeance and took every body by surprise. Nifty is flirting with 200 day EMA for the last two weeks when ever it’s moving below the 200 day EMA the bulls are coming back with vengeance and taking the nifty above that. But it may be noted that nifty is struggling to move above the 3500 mark so unless and other wise nifty move and close above 3500 longs should not be initiated, any shorts should be closed when ever nifty closes above 3500 without any argument. There neutral zone between 3400 and 3500 and any move below 3400 should encourage bears to take nifty towards 3300 it appears that nifty has formed a temporary support at 3300 levels as good buying pressure is coming in when ever indices reach that level. It may be noted that nifty is moving up with higher tops and bottoms and any close below 3300 will violate that and bears might become move active and try to take nifty toward 3250 to 3150 where in the buying pressure should come. One point may be noted that indices are moving up with –ve divergence of RSI and also Momentum oscillators indicating that the rise in the market lacks conviction. It may also be noted that the nifty has moved up during the week with –ve divergence of Elder bull ray indicating that indices are moving up without the support of bulls and we have chances of market reversing and moving down in the coming week. Another point to be noted is that nifty has completed 8 weeks of continues rise and eight happens to be a fiboancci and also as there are –ve divergences we can expect a correction in the coming week. If nifty on weekly basis closes on a positive basis during the current weeks also we can see nifty raising for another four weeks to complete the next Fibonacci of 13. So the coming week is going to be decisive one to decide the course of the market for the next one month. So keep your fingers crossed.
As far as elliotte wave is considered there is no change to that explained during the last week so no update on the same is furnished.Directional Momentum index
As indicated in my last weeks update bulls have taken firm grip on the market. DMI has moved from 39 to 38 levels indicating that bulls are still holding upper hand but as DMI has moved down indicating the at present they are loosing their ground.. As the DMI is moving above 40 we can see a huge volatility in the market with upward bias in the market.
Turtle Trading: - 20 days phenomenon;
Current Indication – buy Generated at 2850
Longs may be closed on movement below – 3297
Shorts may be initiated on close below 2962
ATR is at 109.
Individual Stocks
Kirloskar Bros: Rs.101/-
This is one stock which was beaten down from Rs.550 to around Rs.65 in the 2008 and now has started to raise and has made a six months high currently and it appears to be heading for Rs.150 from current levels. The OBV ( on balance Volume) oscillator is indicating that some good amount of accumulation has gone into the stock and stock may be heading for higher prices. Stop Loss Rs.75/-M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday,May 3rd, 2009 8:23:38 PM IST
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