Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 5th March 2011.
This week was one of the eventful week as there was budget on Monday February the 28th. The market was very volatile on the day of budget and there after started to moved up for whole of the week. After so many weeks we have seen good green candle. Does this indicate good news for bulls, the answer appears to be no as the volumes are not good during the entire week. The volumes were heavy only during the day of budge where in the market moved very wildly and closed at the near low of the day thus indicates that bears are strong and during the remaining days even though the market has moved up with convincing bull candles the volumes were not so encouraging for bulls. One of the important technical events which is waiting to happen and which could determine the movement of the market in coming weeks the direction is to be shown by the market. Nifty nearing one so many resistance levels, it is nearing or near confluence of EMA,It is near 200 day,100 day and 50 day EMA. Generally markets find resistance or support at confluence of EMA. This time it appears that they might act as a resistance. It can be seen from the chart on Friday market has reacted from 200 day EMA whether the same would be continued in the coming week we have to wait and see. All these EMA are moving down indicating that the down slide is possible unless and other wise markets move up very very swiftly and stays there till that time we have all chances of markets moving down. Another important technical event which has taken place during the week and it has also be overlooked by majority of analysts is that 50 day EMA has moved below 200 day EMA this is a very bearish signal and it is to be noted is that this is has happened for the first time after may 2009, it has moved below it after nearly 21 months(Fibonacci again) signifies that it is going to stay there for some longer time or months and till it stays below it we can continue to see markets moving down and all rises should be seen as an opportunity to liquidate our holding or taken as an opportunity to go short.
This week was one of the eventful week as there was budget on Monday February the 28th. The market was very volatile on the day of budget and there after started to moved up for whole of the week. After so many weeks we have seen good green candle. Does this indicate good news for bulls, the answer appears to be no as the volumes are not good during the entire week. The volumes were heavy only during the day of budge where in the market moved very wildly and closed at the near low of the day thus indicates that bears are strong and during the remaining days even though the market has moved up with convincing bull candles the volumes were not so encouraging for bulls. One of the important technical events which is waiting to happen and which could determine the movement of the market in coming weeks the direction is to be shown by the market. Nifty nearing one so many resistance levels, it is nearing or near confluence of EMA,It is near 200 day,100 day and 50 day EMA. Generally markets find resistance or support at confluence of EMA. This time it appears that they might act as a resistance. It can be seen from the chart on Friday market has reacted from 200 day EMA whether the same would be continued in the coming week we have to wait and see. All these EMA are moving down indicating that the down slide is possible unless and other wise markets move up very very swiftly and stays there till that time we have all chances of markets moving down. Another important technical event which has taken place during the week and it has also be overlooked by majority of analysts is that 50 day EMA has moved below 200 day EMA this is a very bearish signal and it is to be noted is that this is has happened for the first time after may 2009, it has moved below it after nearly 21 months(Fibonacci again) signifies that it is going to stay there for some longer time or months and till it stays below it we can continue to see markets moving down and all rises should be seen as an opportunity to liquidate our holding or taken as an opportunity to go short.
Negatives for the market:
· Nifty has moved below 200 day EMA during this week nifty has reacted from 200 day EMA.
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Monthly MACD has given a sell signal indicating extreme weakness in the market.
· 50 day EMA, 100 day EMA
· The deadly cross of 50 day EMA moving blow 100 day EMA and also 200 day EMA has happened which is clearly indicating extreme weakness.
· Daily stochastic oscillator is in sell mode.
Positives developing:
· Nifty is above 15 day EMA.
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal.
· Weekly Stochastic oscillator has just give a buy signal
Elliotte wave analysis: There is nothing new to that which has been given in my previous update. I would try to give you next week.
Pivot Point Analysis:
As per pivot point analysis, yearly Pivot is at 5716 and it is clearly gives an indication that nifty is blow the yearly pivot and which is a bearish indication and till it is below it, it has chances of moving towards s1 and s2. S1 is placed at 5093 and s2 is placed at 4053 so till nifty stays below the pivot of 5716 we can see nifty drifting towards 5093 and 4093. So now currently 5093 should offer support to the market so watch out for market to move to these levels. Nifty seems to have reached nearly 100 points away from 5093
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, March 5th 20.32 IST
· Weekly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market and also every rise would be sold into.
· Monthly MACD has given a sell signal indicating extreme weakness in the market.
· 50 day EMA, 100 day EMA
· The deadly cross of 50 day EMA moving blow 100 day EMA and also 200 day EMA has happened which is clearly indicating extreme weakness.
· Daily stochastic oscillator is in sell mode.
Positives developing:
· Nifty is above 15 day EMA.
· Daily MACD has given a buy signal.
· Weekly Stochastic oscillator has just give a buy signal
Elliotte wave analysis: There is nothing new to that which has been given in my previous update. I would try to give you next week.
Pivot Point Analysis:
As per pivot point analysis, yearly Pivot is at 5716 and it is clearly gives an indication that nifty is blow the yearly pivot and which is a bearish indication and till it is below it, it has chances of moving towards s1 and s2. S1 is placed at 5093 and s2 is placed at 4053 so till nifty stays below the pivot of 5716 we can see nifty drifting towards 5093 and 4093. So now currently 5093 should offer support to the market so watch out for market to move to these levels. Nifty seems to have reached nearly 100 points away from 5093
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend.
Sunday, March 5th 20.32 IST
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