Monday, April 23, 2012

nifty weekly update


Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 22nd April 2012.
The market has been one of the boring for the last few weeks as it has not moved anywhere. For around nine weeks nifty has been moving in the range of 5200 to 5650. As can be seen when market comes to such a close range then it becomes very boring and also it also gives an indication that we are about to get into a big trending market which may be either up or down. If we take the up move from January onwards the rise from 4550 to 5650 it took nearly eight weeks and not the corrective mode from 5650 to 5200 has taken around astounding eight weeks and the market has corrected only 50% of the rise in possibly equal time periods which is giving an indication the we might has the possibility to move up or a give a good up move rather that the violent down move. You may be wondering this guy till now bearish has suddenly started to give an bullish picture. I only give what the market say as I always say price is the king remaining all is second. The weekly chart is given a more good indication that that of the daily chart.  Nifty is finding support at the 100 day EMA, it has found support nearly three times in last one and half month which is a clear indication that bulls are in the market and they are expecting the market on the upside. As I have been saying in my previous updates also we are in an uptrend and the market is going to make an attempt to move up till its above the 100 day EMA and 200 day EMA. The 100 day EMA is at 5213 so till its above it on weekly basis then we have all chances of market moving up and it may also be noted is market is nifty is finding support at 100 week EMA and till its above it, it is a good sign for the market the 100 week EMA is at 5207 so till market is above it we can expect the market to move up. So considering all this it appears that 5200 happens to be very good and a healthy support for the market and if it is taken out on down side then we can expect the market to fall very violently but till its above it we have all the chances of market moving up only. So 5200 appears to be laxman rekha for the market. So till above it hope for the market to move up   
The weekly chart is given below you can clearly see that the market is in a corrective mode for the last two months and slowly drifting down and also notice the volumes are also very low which is indicating that the interest is slowly drifting down and we may suddenly see interest setting in indicated by the volumes and the market would move in a trending way and that too longer that the earlier one. So we have to wait for the volumes to increase and show us the direction.  



Positive for the market:
·         Nifty is above 200 day EMA
·         Market is above 200 week EMA.
·         50 day EMA has moved above 100 day EMA which is a bullish signal
·         Weekly MACD has give a buy signal indicating that we might see up move to continue for some time. it can only be reversed abruptly only when market falls heavily.
·         Daily MACD has given a buy signal.
·         Daily stochastic oscillator is in buy mode but is at around overbought levels.
·         Weekly stochastic oscillator has give a buy signal
·         One of the big positive signal which has been generated is 50 week EMA has moved above 100 week EMA and also 15 week EMA has moved above all the three.
Negatives
·         Monthly MACD is in sell mode indicating weakness in the market.

Elliotte wave analysis: As there is nothing much change in the EW structure I am not giving the same I would give the updated structure in the coming week.


M. Sri Mahidar
Trend is Friend
Celebrate Life
Sunday, April 22nd 10.12 IST

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