Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 26^th April 2015

Nifty during the week was on a continuing down trend and has closed at the low point of the week which is a sign of weakness. It Opened at a 8618 made a high of 8619 made a low of 8273 and closed at 8305. Nifty is on verge of giving a crossover of 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA if that happens then it would be the for the first time after nearly 21 months( a Fibonacci). As it is happening after nearly 21 months is a bearish indication but still it has not moved below it, if that happens that would surely be a bearish signal. It may be noted that the 20 day EMA 50 day EMA and 100 day EMA are at a distance of just 50 points between, and also 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA are moving down and have chance of moving below 100 day EMA, it that happens then it would be a deadly cross and would signal a bearishness in the market for longer time that expected. So we have to see whether in the coming month we can see the same event or market reverses to make a new high. Nifty is also very near to 200 day EMA which is just 120 points from current level which is first time after nearly one year.

Another point which is worth mentioning is nifty is exactly a the trend line drawn from bottoms of august 2014 any break of the same would also encourage bulls and indicate bearishness for the market in weeks or months to come.

On Slightly larger time frame nifty has broken below the trend line drawn joining bottoms started the start of the current up move from September 2013, (the blue trend line in the above chart) has broken below the trend line in the last week of march and there after again moved above it in the current month and again moved below it during this week. This is a clear picture of weakness of the market. The trend line is now offering resistance which is a bad sign for bulls. So unless and otherwise market move above the trend line we can expect further down side in coming weeks or months.

Next week we would see what would be the probable targets if the same happens.

Mahiidar M

Enjoying Life

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Sunday 26^th April 2015 Time:4.11 PM(IST)