Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 13^th June 2015.

During the week Nifty has opened at 8124 made a high of 8163, made a low of 7940 and closed at 7982 virtually at the low of the weak. This is an indication of weakness in the market. On Daily charts nifty has closed below 8000 which is a bearish signal for the bulls. Off late 8000 was acting as a formidable support, buying pressure was coming when nifty but this time bulls seems to have not offered much support. Weekly close below the 8000 level is a bearish indication for bulls. In the next week nifty has to conquer 8000 other wise there should be a violent fall in the market. Nifty has also moved below 200 day EMA move up and found resistance at the same levels and then started to fall, giving a perfect technical support. 8200 is the 200 day EMA below it bears are going to rule the market, it is the level which the long term investors would be looking at. Another point to be noted is that 20 day EMA has moved below 200 day EMA which has happed for the first time after September 2013 which is also a bearish indication for the market.

Another point to be noted is that nifty has moved below 50 week EMA for the first time after September 2013 which is also a bearish indication. 50 week EMA is at 8124 and the high of the week is at that levels only so nifty has to moved it to offer any strength to the bulls otherwise we can expect worst for the market. If history is to be see some bad weeks or months can be expected for the market. You might be wondering what is it, during the last 10 years whenever the nifty has moved below 50 day EMA and sustained it has all the way went down and moved below or found support at 200 week EMA. 200 day EMA is at around 6700 levels, so if nifty fails to conquer 8130 we can surely expect it to move towards 6700 levels which happen to be 20% from current levels so we can easily expect the same levels. Even FIIs are not in a buying mode in last one to one and half month. All these are pointing towards bearish market in coming months. So brace for the same unless and other wise market successfully move above 200 day EMA so we have to keep a close watch at 8200 levels.

As have indicated in earlier update nifty has formed H&S pattern and any breach of neck line would give a target of 6700 levels for the nifty. And this week nifty has broken below the neck line and if nifty sustains below it then we can expect the target to ne achieved.

It May be noted that more that 60% of the nifty stocks are quoting below 200 day EMA and most of the other stocks are also around 200 day EMA only pointing towards possible down side for the market. So brace for the same.

Mahiidar M

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