Praj Industries: Rs.57/- the stock has broken the sloping trend line drawn from the top of 2008 which indicates probable trend reversal in the stock. even though the fundamentals have not improved technicals are indicating a trend reversal as six year trend line has been taken out. So technically the stock is a buy with Stop Loss at Rs.50.

M.Mahidar Sri
Enjoying Life

Punj Lloyd

Punj Lloyd:- also seems to be comming out of hibernation after nearly 6 years, it has been falling continually from 2008 as its financial position was continually becoming worst. if you see the chart from 2008 onwards the stock has been trading below 200 day EMA except for a three to four months in 2009. Now it has currently moved above 200 day EMA. If you see the second chart it has tried twice in last six months and failed indicated by red down facing arrows and in the third attempt it has moved above it then it retraced and move below it and not strongly moved above it which is a perfect technical set up as the stop loss is just near only the margin of safety is high. another point ot be noted is that if you can see in the first chart any move above 37 would result in the sloping trend line drawn from the top of 2008 is taken out which generally signifies a trend reversal in the stock. So watch out for Rs.36 as any move above it would trigger an upside movement of at-least 50% from that levels. Fundamentals have still not improved but generally technical s first show the reversals followed by  fundamentals. So as of now its a technical buy with stright stop loss of Rs.28.

M.Mahidar Sri

Trend is Friend.

Gammon India

Gammon India has moved above the 200 day EMA after october 2010 which is nearly 3 years, the break out is indicating that the stock is comming out of hibernation and it has chances of moving higher from current levels. The minimum retracement of fibonacci is comming to around 74 levels which is substantilly up from current levels of 18. It has also moved above 200 day EMA came down and took support at 200 day EMA and then now started to move up which is perfect technical set up and we can expect good movement from current levels. My personal view is that we can easily double from current level. what ever may be the case the stop loss should be any weekly close below 200 day EMA.

M.Mahidar Sri
Trend is Friend.

Polaris Financial technologies:

the stocks seems to be coming out of hibernation of nearly 13 years. the stock has been forming inverted heads and shoulders pattern over the period of 12-13 years this is very very long time for the pattern. it can be seen from the chart that the stock has been unable to break above the neck line at-least four times and this time it has broke above the neck line and that too on heavy volumes which is clearly indicating that the trend might be reversing. So techncially the stock has is a good buy with stop loss below the neck line. fundamentally the financials have been improving over fives years at CAGR at around 20% for last five years so it appears to be a good buy from current levels with stop loss at neck line, in any case the stop loss at 200 day EMA which happens to be around 140. The reverse h&S pattern is giving a target of double from the current levels.  But the very long term pattern formation is giving an indication that we might see a new all time high in years to come provided it stays above the neck line. 

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend. 

Nifty Update

nifty for the first time in the current rise from the 5950 the retracement of the last was done in a shorter time than the rise which is indicating that trend is turning weak. if the wave structure is complete the we can see the retracement to the low of the 4th wave low where in give a target around 6450 levels. If we apply fibonacci retracements then we have achieved the minimum retracement of 23.60%, if its taken out then we have chances of moving towards 38.20% and 50% retracement. which give a targets of 6512 and 6401, will it go to these levels it appears to be so. we have to wait till it is acheived or negated. on of the things to be noted is that nifty has also gone below 20 day EMA for the first time after nearly one and half month which indicates the the market has become weak, it has to move above it to confirm some strength so wait and watch for the same.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend

Enjoying Life

Rupee is one of the interesting charts which has to be looked into and is pointing towards a bearish scenario for INR. The USDINR seems to have formed a wolf wave pattern and till now it has not confirmed and it would be confirmed on close above 60.75 the lower blue line once this is done the pattern would be confirmed and we can see a sudden spurt in the USD towards 66 and every body would be caught on wrong foot. i am working on the elliott wave structure and would furnish the same once i complete the same this weekend. So wait for the chart to confirm and then act in any case the stop loss is around 59.50 levels. so we have 1 rupee risk and return of 6 rupees in this trade if taken. but stop loss is a must what ever may be the case

Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 11^th April 2014

The market during the week was virtually in the same range of previous week even though the market has made a all time high. During the weeks also the market formed a weekly green candle indicating that the bulls were strong during the week also. The sentiments still continues to be in favor of the bulls. The Elliott wave is indicating that we might has completed that up trend and might move down in coming week/s. During my last updated I have indicated that the nifty is forming an expanding triangle and we are in the fifth of the fifth. It appears that the fifth of fifth has completed and might head down wards.

As can be seen from the above chart, it appears that we have completed all the fives waves of the expanding triangle and we can expect the market to drift down wards. Generally the fifth wave of the triangle should go and move above the A-C trend line and it has moved above it indicated by arrow. Now we have to wait for the A-C trend line to be violated to confirm the reversal. The A-C trend line is at 6650. So we have to wait for it to violate and move below 6650.

The Elliott wave break-up of the fifth wave of the expanding triangle is furnished above.It can be clearly seen that the fifty of the fifth has completed. The market has to move down now other wise if the fifth of fifth to split into its components then we can have fifty wave expansions and the market has to move up from current levels. So we have to keep close watch on the moves. If the five waves are completed the we can see market drifting towards 6650 first and then towards 4^th wave low which happens to be at 6432. Considering this we can see nifty falling around 300 points from current levels.

The above chart indicates that the market is rising in a channel and every time it touched the upper line the market fell towards the support line. Currently the market is exactly at the top resistance line giving an indication that the market has all the chances of moving down at-least for the short term. If it does not then we can has a blow-off rally which would actually not good for bulls in long term. Each and every technical pointer is pointing towards imminent correction but till the market confirms we should not act.

M.Sri Mahidar

Trend is Friend

13^th April 2014