Nifty has formed a lower low after sustained rise from 4675 indicating that the uptrend from 4675 have come to an end. it is Has also broken the trend line drawn from the low of january indictingh weakness. i have indicated in my nifty update on monday that we might at the end of the current rise and that as the 3rd wave is exteded we might see the 5th wave failure i.e. not exeeding the high of 3rd wave( 5th wave is shown by a circle in the above chart) and it seems that it has exactly done that. But it would be confirmed only on close below the low of 4th wave i.e.5160 it should be retraced in shorter period of time than that taken for the 5th wave preferably 50% to 60% of the time. The time taken by the 5th wave till now is around 5-6 days so we should move below 5160 in less than 5 days preferably in less that three days then it would confirm the end of the up move and we have chances of moving towards 5000 and 4700 so keep a watch on 5160 every very closely.
Another thing to be noted is that if the 4th wave is developing into a flat we might see nifty bouncing from around 5200 5150 levels towards 5350 and then fall very very fast. so we have to wait and see what unfolds.
M.Sri Mahidar
Trend is friend.