Weekly technical Analysis for week ended 17th April 2010.
Nifty opened on a week note and continued to slide whole through the week and closed at the lowest point of the week. All the days in the week, it has formed a black candles indicating that all through the week nifty has been sliding slowly. The point that nifty has closed at the lowest point of the week is an indicating that the bears are active during the week. One of the noticing feature of market during the week is that nifty has closed at two weeks low, this has happened for the first time after nearly nine weeks of rise. I have been indicating from the at-least two to three months that market might correct in April and it appears to be happening. As has been indicated in my earlier updates the market has completed 13 months of continues rise, are we are in the 14 month and generally markets correct after 13 months as 13 happens to be a Fibonacci. As I have been indicating that in the last 6 years of bull market, nifty has continually for more than 13 months only once and in all the remaining times they has risen for either 8 or 13 months. So as we have completed 13 months there are all fair chances of market correct and we have to see whether it materializes. As far as market it indicating that it is weak it has only to confirm the same.
As has been explained in the last weeks update under time series analysis, market has been raising for anywhere between 10 to 14 weeks. If you can seen my last weeks update, nifty has been rising in a decreasing trend first for 14 weeks, next rise was for 13 weeks and the subsequent rise was for 10 weeks and the current rise has risen for 9 weeks and in the 10th weeks it has corrected below the 2 week’s close. If you see the correcting first correction was for 5 weeks, subsequent falls were for 3 weeks and if you go by the trend nifty should at-least correct for 3 weeks so we should see at-least another two weeks of fall. So if time series is to be believed we should brace for at-least another two weeks of fall so be prepared for the same.
Nifty opened on a week note and continued to slide whole through the week and closed at the lowest point of the week. All the days in the week, it has formed a black candles indicating that all through the week nifty has been sliding slowly. The point that nifty has closed at the lowest point of the week is an indicating that the bears are active during the week. One of the noticing feature of market during the week is that nifty has closed at two weeks low, this has happened for the first time after nearly nine weeks of rise. I have been indicating from the at-least two to three months that market might correct in April and it appears to be happening. As has been indicated in my earlier updates the market has completed 13 months of continues rise, are we are in the 14 month and generally markets correct after 13 months as 13 happens to be a Fibonacci. As I have been indicating that in the last 6 years of bull market, nifty has continually for more than 13 months only once and in all the remaining times they has risen for either 8 or 13 months. So as we have completed 13 months there are all fair chances of market correct and we have to see whether it materializes. As far as market it indicating that it is weak it has only to confirm the same.
As has been explained in the last weeks update under time series analysis, market has been raising for anywhere between 10 to 14 weeks. If you can seen my last weeks update, nifty has been rising in a decreasing trend first for 14 weeks, next rise was for 13 weeks and the subsequent rise was for 10 weeks and the current rise has risen for 9 weeks and in the 10th weeks it has corrected below the 2 week’s close. If you see the correcting first correction was for 5 weeks, subsequent falls were for 3 weeks and if you go by the trend nifty should at-least correct for 3 weeks so we should see at-least another two weeks of fall. So if time series is to be believed we should brace for at-least another two weeks of fall so be prepared for the same.
Positives for Nifty:
· Market is above 200 day EMA.
· Market is above 50 day and 100 day EMA.
· Weekly MACD is in buy mode ( about to give a sell again).
Negatives for nifty:
· Nifty has moved below 15 day EMA
· Daily MACD has given a sell signal.
· Weekly MACD is about to give a sell signal.
· Weekly TRIX are still in sell mode.
· RSI has started to move down after –ve divergence and presently placed at 50 indicating weakness.
Elliot wave analysis: there is nothing new to the mentioned than that is mentioned in my earlier update. In my earlier update I have indicated that the nifty might move towards 5420 or 5515 and nifty has just moved near the first target of 5420, it made a high of 5399. Nifty has failed to move above the first target, if wave structure( fifth wave of the fifth wave) has completed it has to be confirmed by faster retracement of the entire rise. so we should move below 4675 in shorter than 9 weeks preferably in 4-5 weeks then the it would confirm the completion of the uptrend. Till it is not breached the trend is up as per elliotte.
Directional Momentum index – (DMI)
DMI is moving down and +D1 is about to move below –D1 indicating weakness. If the early part of the week nifty moves down then –D1 would moved above +D1 signaling strength of the bears.
Pivot point analysis:
· Market is above 200 day EMA.
· Market is above 50 day and 100 day EMA.
· Weekly MACD is in buy mode ( about to give a sell again).
Negatives for nifty:
· Nifty has moved below 15 day EMA
· Daily MACD has given a sell signal.
· Weekly MACD is about to give a sell signal.
· Weekly TRIX are still in sell mode.
· RSI has started to move down after –ve divergence and presently placed at 50 indicating weakness.
Elliot wave analysis: there is nothing new to the mentioned than that is mentioned in my earlier update. In my earlier update I have indicated that the nifty might move towards 5420 or 5515 and nifty has just moved near the first target of 5420, it made a high of 5399. Nifty has failed to move above the first target, if wave structure( fifth wave of the fifth wave) has completed it has to be confirmed by faster retracement of the entire rise. so we should move below 4675 in shorter than 9 weeks preferably in 4-5 weeks then the it would confirm the completion of the uptrend. Till it is not breached the trend is up as per elliotte.
Directional Momentum index – (DMI)
DMI is moving down and +D1 is about to move below –D1 indicating weakness. If the early part of the week nifty moves down then –D1 would moved above +D1 signaling strength of the bears.
Pivot point analysis:
Nifty is below the weekly pivot for the first time after 9 weeks indicating weakness, if nifty stays below 5294 then we might see nifty moving towards 5205 and then 5149. If may also be noted that monthly pivot is at 5171 any break of the same should take the market towards 5013 so keep a close watch on the same.
M.Sri Mahidar
Sunday 18th April 2010, Time 19.01 IST
Trend is friend
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